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Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

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Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#331

Post by leptons »

lynndotpy wrote: post #321
tmountain wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for this. It’s amazing how quickly people are trying to rewrite history.

I understand the feeling, but I'd appreciate if my off-the-cuff feelings about the capabilities of one political party was not articulated as a bad-faith intentional rewriting of the historical record.

My correction was more for everyone else reading, and not specifically you.

Far too often the Democrats have been called out for "failing us" or other both-sides nonsense (not saying you did that here), when in reality they are the only viable choice (capable of winning elections, don't get me started on 3rd parties) to actually fix the calamity the Republicans always cause.

Describing them as "failing" is always going to trigger me. They've done a great job in every single hearing and debate at spelling out exactly how craven the Republicans are - if people just aren't listening and describe them as "failing", then that's a problem. They've done amazing work. The people that really failed us are the voters, but more specifically the people who just didn't show up to vote because they think the Democrats are losers, which is how "failing us" sounds to someone reading random comment threads.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#332

Post by roncesvalles »

inaros wrote: post #73
unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #62

1. By a show of hands, who was surprised that the cataclysmic warnings of the weekend subsided into talk of diplomacy on Monday? 2. Let’s hypothesize the US gov’t or allies did pre-release this info to traders as a policy tool, inviting them to sell oil profitably, shaping the later price action . In a practical sense they may have brought more speculators to the short side than otherwise would have been there; is th…

If you run the numbers: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47504505 You will see, that anything else other than a ground invasion, is guaranteed to give Iran a war victory.

The loss of ability to intercept missiles does not mean that the war is lost for America. It just means that it now has to contend with more of its own losses during the war.

America always goes to war with the handicap that 1 American life is worth hundreds of enemy lives. This handicap is why one gets the impression (illusion) that countries like Iran are able to hold their own against the great mighty USA. But if America stops playing as cautiously as it does, it turns into a very different war machine.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#334

Post by kortilla »

philistine wrote: post #156
kortilla wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s false. The petrodollar is irrelevant because two non-US companies trading using an intermediate currency like the USD create a balanced buy and sell of the intermediary.

If the petrodollar is irrelevant, why is Iran insisting that anything transiting the straight of Hormuz be bought using the Chinese Yen?

Because China has a controlled currency and can lock flows back out.

Please do enough research to at least get the right currency before engaging in these discussions.

The forex markets are so extremely liquid and deep that trading in USD is no different than trading in any other free floating high volume currency.

Petrodollar might have mattered in 1975 when you couldn’t swap 100 million USD for 100 million euros in 2 seconds without even moving the market.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#335

Post by kortilla »

rfrey wrote: post #171
kortilla wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“It’s not that complicated. Give up your principles for short term house cleaning.” People with strong political beliefs are going to turn their head to keep their side in power rather than put someone in power that will push policies they are fundamentally against. Blagojevich was not replaced by a Republican. At this point presidential elections are won by getting members of the other side to stay home. So encourag…

What kind of reply is that? Nevermind the questionable style of making up a sentence and putting it in quotation marks, what about the comment you're replying to suggests giving up any principles?

You cannot vote for someone in a representative democracy that will enact things against your principles. Voting Democrat, regardless of the quality of character of the representative, would be a betrayal of principles for the people who believe things like “abortion is murder”.

The made up quotation is a style designed to illustrate how dumb of a suggestion that is to people who vote on single issues.

It’s how single issue voters think regardless of Democrat/Republican. They ignore the representative’s moral failings and pick the one that will execute their policy desires.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#336

Post by kortilla »

pear01 wrote: post #136
kortilla wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“It’s not that complicated. Give up your principles for short term house cleaning.” People with strong political beliefs are going to turn their head to keep their side in power rather than put someone in power that will push policies they are fundamentally against. Blagojevich was not replaced by a Republican. At this point presidential elections are won by getting members of the other side to stay home. So encourag…

Why are you appending a sentence I never said within your quote of my position? Your comment reads like you are arguing with yourself. I never suggested anything to the contrary of much of what you write, so frankly I have no idea what point you are trying to make. I suggest you re-read my comment in full as I think we are predominantly in agreement.

You suggested voting for a Democrat, which would be a ridiculous betrayal to any single issue voter Republican voting for something like stopping abortion because they think it’s murder.

It’s so ridiculous on its face that I put in quotes what would be running through any single-issue voter’s head when they would hear a suggestion to vote for a different policy platform to oust a representative. You might as well ask a Bernie supporter to vote in Ron Paul.

It’s a rhetorical mockery device.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#337

Post by mmooss »

pfannkuchen wrote: post #267
mmooss wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US would not win a ground war in Iran. Before every US war, people tend to think the US military and their $800 billion/year budget are unbeatable. But look at outcomes of significant US ground wars since WWII - only one clear victory: * Korea: Stalemate, which is still a problem now 70 years later * Vietnam: Loss * Gulf War: Victory * Afganistan: Loss, after 20 years of fighting * Iraq: Mixed results after 8 yea…

But if the goal was actually to destabilize those places then maybe it worked as intended?

I can't think of any examples of that and don't see that in the wars listed above. Destabilized countries are bad news for entire regions and can become havens and recruiting grounds for terrorists, criminals, etc. And those things spread across borders.

The idea that the Iranians will act on his wishes is a fantasy of someone who wants to win without paying the costs, as a freebie.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#338

Post by tmountain »

quink wrote: post #226
tmountain wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do we? You say this as if the country is a single organism and in lock step with the current administration. I have never voted for a republican in my life and never will, but now, somehow, all 350 million Americans just fit into one big bucket?

Because at this point all the people in all the other countries do not care who you voted for, especially not after he caused an insurrection and a Democratic Party administration didn't do anything to prosecute that. At this point all the people outside the US just want to know what you're going to be doing about this insanity.

Didn’t vote for him. Doing whatever we can to get out of the situation. The United States is not a single organism. It’d be like blaming the French for Victor Orban because both countries are in Europe. Sorry for being born somewhere and sorry for the bad weather lately.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#339

Post by rasz »

password54321 wrote: post #201
inaros wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> The war should not be won. it should be ended before everyone loses. My analysis and my comment I linked to agrees. And that is a strategic victory for Iran, Russia, China and a defeat for Israel, and the US. The worst will be the Gulf States hostages of their dueling stock pile of defense missiles running out...to which they will have to queue for, with US DOD at the front of the queue.

>a defeat for Israel False, Israel has used the whole war to take over Lebanon almost silently from mass media attention. They are about to annex a part of it.

Lebanon is about UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and 20 years on it not being enforced. UNIFIL failed spectacularly, looks like Israel decided to enforce it themselves.

https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/in-lebanon-there-are-no-mo...

"For the first time, a country enamored of compromises, half measures and trickery is watching these options vanish, replaced by a brutal choice: confront Hezbollah and risk destruction, or ensure it by doing nothing."

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