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The Waymo World Model

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331–340 of 699 posts

Re: The Waymo World Model

#331
post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who lives in the Bay Area we already have trains, and they're literally past the point of bankruptcy because they (1) don't actually charge enough maintain the variable cost of operations, (2) don't actually make people pay at all, and (3) don't actually enforce any quality of life concerns short of breaking up literal fights. All of this creates negative synergies that pushes a huge, mostly silent segment…

> they (1) don't actually charge enough maintain the variable cost of operations Why do you expect them to make money? Roads don't make money and no one thinks to complain about that. One of the purposes of government is to make investment in things that have more nebulous returns. Moving more people to public transit makes better cities, healthier and happier citizens, stronger communities, and lets us save money on…

>Why do you expect them to make money?

I don't.

That's why I said "variable cost of operations."

If a system doesn't generate enough revenue to cover the variable costs of operation, then every single new passenger drives the system closer to bankruptcy. The more "successful" the system is -- the more people depend on it -- the more likely it is to fail if anything happens to the underlying funding source, like a regular old local recession. This simple policy decision can create a downward economic spiral when a recession leads to service cuts, which leads to people unable to get to work reliably, which creates more economic pain, which leads to a bigger recession... rinse/repeat. This is why a public transit system should cover variable costs so that a successful system can grow -- and shrink -- sustainably.

When you aren't growing sustainably, you open yourself up to the whims of the business cycle literally destroying your transit system. It's literally happening right now with SF MUNI, where we've had so many funding problems, that they've consolidated bus lines. I use the 38R, and it's become extremely busy. These busses are getting so packed that people don't want to use them, but the point is they can't expand service because each expansion loses them more money, again, because the system doesn't actually cover those variable costs.

The public should be 100% completely covering the fixed capital costs of the system. Ideally, while there is a bit of wiggle room, the ridership should be 100% be covering the variable capital costs. That way the system can expand when it's successful, and contract when it's less popular. Right now in the Bay Area, you have the worst of both worlds, you have an underutilized system with absolutely spiraling costs, simply because there is zero connection between "people actually wanting to use the system" and "where the money comes from."

Re: The Waymo World Model

#333
post #163

1. Still hard not to think that this is a huge waste of time as opposed to something that's a little more like a public transport train-ish thing, i.e. integrate with established infrastructure. 2. No seriously, is the filipino driver thing confirmed? It really feels like they're trying to bury that.

(2) I really don't understand why people are surprised that Waymo has fallbacks? The fact that they had a team ready to take over as necessary was well known. I've seen a bunch of comments about this and it seems like people are confused.

I think you sort of fundamentally misunderstand the whole "steak vs sizzle" thing in capitalism?

The technology "feels" way less cool knowing that there are human backups, which would absolutely in turn make its percieved value go down.

Re: The Waymo World Model

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google has been doing more R&D and internal deployment of AI and less trying to sell it as a product. IMHO that difference in focus makes a huge difference. I used to think their early work on self-driving cars was primarily to support Street View in thier maps.

There was a point in time when basically every well known AI researcher worked at Google. They have been at the forefront of AI research and investing heavily for longer than anybody. It’s kind of crazy that they have been slow to create real products and competitive large scale models from their research. But they are in full gear now that there is real competition, and it’ll be cool to see what they release over th…

> It’s kind of crazy that they have been slow to create real products and competitive large scale models from their research.

I always thought they deliberately tried to contain the genie in the bottle as long as they could

Re: The Waymo World Model

#335
post #163

1. Still hard not to think that this is a huge waste of time as opposed to something that's a little more like a public transport train-ish thing, i.e. integrate with established infrastructure. 2. No seriously, is the filipino driver thing confirmed? It really feels like they're trying to bury that.

They are not trying to "bury" remote assistance at all. They wrote a white paper about it in 2020 and a blog post about it in 2024. Anyway you can think it's a waste but they're wasting their money, not yours. If you want a train in your town, go get one. Waymo has only spent, cumulatively, about 4 months of the budgets of American transit agencies. If you had all that money it wouldn't amount to anything.

"At all?"

Oh come on -- of course they are. That's precisely why you put it in a "white paper" and not, you know, ads.

Re: The Waymo World Model

#336
post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also think the presence of Sergey Brin has been making a difference in this.

Ex-googler: I doubt it, but am curious for rationale (i know there was a round of PR re: him “coming back to help with AI.” but just between you and me, the word on him internally, over years and multiple projects, was having him around caused chaos b/c he was a tourist flitting between teams, just spitting out ideas, but now you have unclear direction and multiple teams hearing the same “you should” and doing it)

That makes sense. A "secret shopper" might be a better way to avoid that but wouldn't give him the strokes of being the god in the room.

Re: The Waymo World Model

#337
By leveraging Genie’s immense world knowledge, it can simulate exceedingly rare events—from a tornado to a casual encounter with an elephant—that are almost impossible to capture at scale in reality. The model’s architecture offers high controllability, allowing our engineers to modify simulations with simple language prompts, driving inputs, and scene layouts. Notably, the Waymo World Model generates high-fidelity, multi-sensor outputs that include both camera and lidar data.

How do you know the generated outputs are correct? Especially for unusual circumstances?

Say the scenario is a patch of road is densely covered with 5 mm ball bearings. I'm sure the model will happily spit out numbers, but are they reasonable? How do we know they are reasonable? Even if the prediction is ok, how do we fundamentally know that the prediction for 4 mm ball bearings won't be completely wrong?

There seems to be a lot of critical information missing.

Re: The Waymo World Model

#338
post #265

All this work is impressive, but I'd rather have better trains

Trains need well behaved people, otherwise they are shit.

I don't want to hear tiktok or full volume soap operas blasting at some deaf mouth breather.

I don't want to be near loud chewing of smelly leftovers.

I don't want to be begged for money, or interact with high or psychotic people.

The current culture doesn't allow enforcement of social behaviour: so public transport will always be a miserable containment vessel for the least functional, and everyone with sense avoids the whole thing.

Re: The Waymo World Model

#339
It is great being able to generate a much larger universe of possibilities than what they can gather from real world data collection, but I'd be curious to learn how they check that the generated data is a superset of the possibility-space seen in the real world (e.g. confirm that their models closely match what is seen in the real world too)

Re: The Waymo World Model

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My view on Waymo and autonomous taxis in general is they will eventually make public transit obsolete. Once there is a robotaxi available to pick up and drop off every passenger directly from a to b, the whole system could be made to be super efficient. It will take time to get there though. But eventually I think we will get there. Human drivers will be banned, the roads will be exclusively used by autonomous vehicl…

> Human drivers will be banned, the roads will be exclusively used by autonomous vehicles I basically agree with your premise that public transit as it exists today will be rendered obsolete, but I think this point here is where your prediction hits a wall. I would be stunned if we agreed to eliminate human drivers from the road in my lifetime, or the lifetime of anyone alive today. Waymo is amazing, but still just a…

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