> MoviePass announced that it will begin testing a betting platform.
Huh. That's interesting. Given futures markets on box office receipts are illegal.
Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
331–340 of 517 posts
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#332Earlier quoted context omitted.
As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…
I would say that gambling with skill component is still gambling. For example, in blackjack you can limit your losses by following a basic strategy, which is a 2x2 matrix with rows containing the value of your hand and columns containing the open dealer card. If you can obtain an edge through a skill component (card counting in blackjack), some people wouldn't call this gambling anymore, but I would still call it gam…
Does this not boil down to the distinction being one's intent? I play poker occasionally, for example, and my primary goal is to win money not to take risk. Does that make it meet your definition of investing rather than gambling?
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#333Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stock market integrity is important because of their function in the economy. Scamming of gambling addicts is tragic but not detrimental to society.
That is one of the takes I've ever read. There is a reason gambling is so tightly regulated worldwide, and it's certainly not because governments hate easy vice tax revenue. Gambling debt destroys family units, increases poverty rates (most notably for the children of gambling addicts -- the consequences are not localised only to the person making the bad decisions), and increases violent crime rates. Gambling is mas…
Do you know of any studies that can accurately show the correlation between gambling and societal costs? On the surface the link makes sense to me and seems like it should be right, though I'm not sure how we could have tested it in a controlled way to really know the link exists.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#334Earlier quoted context omitted.
The gamblification of everything is just another stepping stone on the path to the financialization of everything. Many of our best and brightest dedicate their lives to “financial innovation”. It’s sad.
Indeed. Imagine a future where all news have a permanent “place your bet on this event! No money? No problem! 36 month financing plan available” banner in the side. You’ll first just have to purchase some stable coin that the broker mints. Automatic wage garnishment if you default.
You won’t have to buy stable coins, you’ll just pay with your credit cards. This is basically sports gambling applied to the sport of news. I bet they’ll use the same kind of emotional manipulation too: “Real republicans (fans) bet here.” You’ll be watching a political debate and then you’ll have a “the DraftKings Minute” debate analysis segment which is like three guys that don’t know anything about politics screaming about odds.
This sounds exactly like the timeline we are in.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#335Earlier quoted context omitted.
...but many people in positions where they can start a war or cause some other highly visible event of any sort probably will start turning to Polymarket to make money in the course of their work
Which makes the prediction market more accurate.
Until the tail starts wagging the dog.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#336Prediction markets are not considered gambling for the same reason that stock markets aren't. There's no fixed odds or random chance. A skilled analyst can make consistent returns. Unlike stock markets, prediction markets also provide valuable data on important world events, such as elections. It's wisdom of the crowd with financial incentive.
Depends on the scope. If you take stock movement, and zoom in close enough, the fluctuations can be considered random. And suddenly you have people putting their money on things like binary options.
Surely, in the prediction market, it is possible to set up prediction bets which are practically impossible to predict. And with binary outcome, your odds will be 50/50.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#337Not just America, everything is. With stock market, at least we can somehow stop the bad actors, insider traders, corporate manipulation, pumps and dumps - with prediction markets, there is no way. With prediction markets? Next to impossible. The markets being tied to crypto makes it even worse - things get harder to track, jurisdictions get blurry, proving becomes a ping pong between bureaucracy. And proving somethi…
As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not. If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence…
> “…betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling.”
It’s the money aspect that makes it gambling. Just ask Pete Rose.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#338Earlier quoted context omitted.
You forget that people are not necessarily doing this for rational reasons. Some people do it for for entertainment, some people are gambling addicts, some people think they have a strong grasp or inside knowledge when they don't. It is, at root, a casino. Apply your lens to any casino game, and it shouldn't exist (some very narrow exceptions apply in the casino).
It is not a casino in the sense that in the casino you are better against the house. Polymarket is basically an arbiter with financial infrastructure.
I don’t know how this works but assuredly polymarket takes a cut, right? So if we were betting on a coin toss on polymarket, the payout would be less than 2 for both heads ands tail after accounting for polymarket’s fee. That’s not different from the rake for a poker game in a casino?
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#339Earlier quoted context omitted.
Silver lining: We will answer Einstein's question about what weapons will fight WW3 in detail. /s
Every mushroom cloud has a silver lining?
I meant there's autonomous drones and space warfare now, and Einstein didn't know about those. It's a really terrible silver lining, I know.
Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
#340Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is just implausible. Nobody with a brain is going to throw away 4 million on the speculative hope that a prediction market price is going to magically manipulate media coverage on the election.
That's a lot of money for an individual, but if the (dark) money originates from a donor or PAC, it's just another campaign expense.
It's still a lot of money from a donor or PAC for this kind of change. I find it remarkably hard to believe that lines moving on Intrade would have a bigger impact than an equivalent amount of money spent on battleground state television ads.