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Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
331–340 of 604 posts
Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
#332Earlier quoted context omitted.
>holds a substantial share of US deb That's the EU's problem, not Trump's)
A mass selloff of US bonds will mean that the US can’t sell any more - because the market is suddenly flooded with bonds at a ‘discount’. This means that the US can’t take on any more debt (borrow money) Why would you pay the US $10 when you can get the same thing from France for $8? Or the US then has to issue bonds with massively inflated returns - i.e. pay a much higher interest rate.
This idea of waging financial war on the US seems very en vogue in Europe right now, but I think it's terribly shortsighted. Here's how I think it would go down:
1. EU countries coordinate a mass selloff of US debt, somehow even coercing private holders into a fire sale.
2. US bond prices consequently fall. EU holders lose tons of money on the sell side. US and Asian buyers rush to buy and get a sweetheart deal and massive risk-free returns, which starts crashing the stock market.
3. The Fed intervenes. They conjure up dollars from nothing and buy the bonds EU holders are selling at some discount, maybe 95 cents on the dollar. Those new dollars go into those countries' and banks' Master accounts at the Fed.
4a. EU countries' and banks' Master accounts are frozen. Maybe some portion of the funds are released every week in order to allow an orderly flow of value without too much market distortion. Or maybe given the act of financial war, those funds remain frozen indefinitely.
4b. Alternatively, their Master accounts are not frozen. Now, presumably EU didn't sell all their bonds just to hold non-yielding dollars. So they'll go to the forex markets and buy up Euros, massively strengthening the Euro and fucking up their export-based economies. Maybe they buy gold, or EU sovereign debt, or ECB steps in with mad QE. EU bond yields crater. EU holders lose more money on the buy side as whatever assets they purchase get more expensive. Inflation ensues.
5. US is furious and retaliates with financial warfare of their own. Or perhaps kinetic warfare. The ringleaders of the fire sale end up blindfolded and earmuffed on a US warship.
6. EU is in a much worse position than before, lost a ton of money on each leg, likely had tons more frozen, has pernicious inflation and/or diminished exports, cut off from the dollar system making currency reserve management and forex difficult and costly. The US is also now furious and looking to impose additional costs on EU however and wherever it can.
Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
#333This isn’t really about Greenland’s strategic value; it’s about the category error. You can trade goods, sign treaties, and negotiate basing rights. You can’t “buy” a people or their sovereignty especially when they don’t consent. That’s why Europe responds with process and principle: normalize coercion-as-bargaining among allies and you’re reviving a pre-1945 model of politics Europe built institutions to prevent. I…
The US has some grace here as most of the negative feelings towards it dies with it's government. You're going to pick better next time, right?
Even if the US does that, trust arrives on foot, but leaves on horseback, so it will take years to get back to the old state of affairs.
Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
#334Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
#335Earlier quoted context omitted.
Eli Lilly has GLP-1 injectables and will have an oral pill this year. Novo Nordisk has already dropped that ball. Hence Eli Lilly +40% in the last year and Novo -23%. Or on a longer timescale you can see the problem: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVO:NYSE?sa=X&sqi=2&ved...
What should they have done differently to prevent a competitor from entering a valuable market? "Pricing power fell when someone else entered the market" isn't dropping a ball is why I ask.
I think they meant dropped the ball on oral intake.
Most people probably prefer a pill vs injections with needles.
Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
#336As a side note. Beware when exporting to the USA using UPS. Especially when having the receiver pay for imports and taxes. UPS does not enforce payment. They will hand out the package before receiving the taxes and tolls. Then, they force you, the exporter, to pay, since you’ve agreed to it by accepting their terms and conditions. I’ve learnt this the hard way.
Yup. Now people outside the US pay tariffs going both ways. Sending a package to the US? Pay the US tariffs for the receiver in advance. Getting a package from the US? Pay any tariffs/duties/taxes as per normal.
Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
#337Earlier quoted context omitted.
As a Dane, while slightly angry, and gravely concerned for the people of Greenland, I'm still more fearful of the safety and mental well-being of my US friends and colleague than I am for my own.
A Dane not in Greenland I suppose.
Yes, living and working in Greenland would most likely make me concerned for my future.
Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
#338Earlier quoted context omitted.
Had Merkel not opened the border in 2015, Germany would be far worse off. If you ever set foot into a German retirement home, hospital, restaurant, random shop at the central station, cinema, xmas market, you name it, you realize that all those immigrants are currently carrying the economy. She should get a prize for this instead of being blamed. Even if you don't care about the moral aspect of helping refugees.
In Germany, 23% of the people in working age, don't work [1]. The "refugees are carrying the economy", because you are effectively paying 23% of the local working age population (I'm here assuming you aren't paying refugees to go there and not work, right?) to slack. Remove their benefits and see how quickly you don't need to import people to do those jobs. And no, I don't care about the "moral aspect" of not "helpin…
From the same site, the same stat for the US is 41% LOL
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employment-rate
Edit: also you can't do math well -- it's 100 - 77 = 23 (not 33)
Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
#339Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't worry, we've not funded our government for a while now. National debt out front should have told ya
You are reliant on the kindness of strangers to fund your government spending.
That's true for all governments who issue treasuries. For the US it's the kindness of the Japanese, the Chinese and the British. But mostly their own kindness.
Re: Statement by Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,UK
#340This isn’t really about Greenland’s strategic value; it’s about the category error. You can trade goods, sign treaties, and negotiate basing rights. You can’t “buy” a people or their sovereignty especially when they don’t consent. That’s why Europe responds with process and principle: normalize coercion-as-bargaining among allies and you’re reviving a pre-1945 model of politics Europe built institutions to prevent. I…
Warren Buffett once said: "You can't make a good deal with a bad person"
Which is exactly the case as long as Trump is POTUS. There's no good deal to be made for Denmark, Greenland, or Europe in general. Trump is a bad person, and can not be trusted.
Any deal that is made will either be altered or voided. And he'll continue to move the goalposts.
There are two outcomes with Trump:
1) He tries to bully someone into submission, and keeps coming back for more if successful.
2) He is slapped so hard that he gives up entirely.
Unfortunately (2) is a bit shaky these days, as he views the US military as his personal muscle.