Lie.
Their strategy is just to lie. Until they're caught. A CEO with no AI skills and no business skills. There's not a lot of analysis you have to put into this.
Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
331–340 of 552 posts
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#332Earlier quoted context omitted.
There would be competition from API wrappers, if you want to pay there will always be lots of options to chat without ads. I hate to think what they and others might come up with to try and thwart this.
You have no guarantee the API models won’t be tampered with to serve ads. I suspect ads (particularly on those models) will eventually be “native”: the models themselves will be subtly biased to promote advertisers’ interests, in a way that might be hard to distinguish from a genuinely helpful reply.
> You have no guarantee the API models won’t be tampered with to serve ads. I suspect ads (particularly on those models) will eventually be “native”: the models themselves will be subtly biased to promote advertisers’ interests, in a way that might be hard to distinguish from a genuinely helpful reply.
I admit I don't see how that will happen. What are they gonna do? Maintain a model (LoRA, maybe) for every single advertiser?
When both Pepsi and Coke pay you to advertise, you advertise both. The minute one reduces ad-spend, you need to advertise that less.
This sort of thing is computationally fast currently - ad-space is auctioned off in milliseconds. How will they do introduce ads into the content returned by an LLM while satisfying the ad-spend of the advertiser?
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#333Earlier quoted context omitted.
The ads may not be announced. If ads can be subtly inserted “organically” through crafted weights then AI companies may try to claim that it isn’t advertising, if it’s even possible to catch them doing this. For instance, advertisers could pay to have their product embedded as the “best” in a category during training. If this is done as a fine-tuning step then it could be re-run later as advertisers and base models c…
How would the billing work for this? So much of advertising technology is tracking for the purposes of attribution. How does openAI know what to charge for a particular product and category? How do I know if my money was well spent to boost my product in that category? I don’t think you’re wrong! I’m just curious about how the new pricing models will work.
Individually constructed models serving selected poisoned datasets. No different to adwords.
If company bid is highest, customer is in selected demographic, topic is appropriate - answer query using biased model.
It would be trivial to make a poisoned model that always rates the best duvet as DuvetCompany001 in all related queries for example. Then simply charge per impression.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#334Earlier quoted context omitted.
>AI was never about improving civilization; it was always about money. Why not both? It has diagnosed patients who were unsolved by humans. And it was cheaper than doctors.
Why not mow a lawn with a sledgehammer? It removed grass that was overgrown. And it was cheaper than a lawnmower.
Not a great analogy. I've had a far better experience with Claude for simple medical questions than googling or waiting for a response from a doctor. For example, last night I had a panic attack triggered by chugging a protein shake that was expired/gone bad. It was too late for any friends to be awake.
Talking with Claude was incredibly helpful. It gave concrete suggestions for managing the anxiety in the moment and explained what was likely happening with my body and nervous system. It was the correct tool for the job.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#335Earlier quoted context omitted.
Biden appointed Lina Khan. "Both parties are the same" is lazy and unhelpful.
It's wiser to judge the parties by actions rather than rhetoric. From both parties there has been complete absence of meaningful action on the issue, even though both have regularly cycled through complete control of government with majorities in the house and senate while also holding the presidency.
Both parties have sued Alphabet and won a major case, although the outcome isn't ideal.
Meta and Apple have also been sued by both parties for monopolistic behavior.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#336Ads will be no longer a buisness model in 3-5 years when simple, locally run models that do nothing besides blocking ads become available. Twitter, Facebook etc. already get past most modern adblockers, but the AI extension will be able to filter them. In-text advertising must be marked as advertisment in most countries, and even if it isn't, local AI will filter this probably out. So a free ChatGPT service with in-t…
Adblockers already remove the vast majority of ads. Adtech works because most people dont use them.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#337Earlier quoted context omitted.
That misses the point though. Google and Meta have designed systems which capture nearly the entire surplus. In a non-monopolistic environment you'd expect somebody to be willing to step in at a bit less than Google's rates and offer the same outcomes.
The parent comment did a sneaky thing and gave the advertising budget then pivoted into rants about Google and Meta. They never actually said “All of this money goes to Google and Meta”. It was just expected that on HN everyone would assume as much because that’s what everyone is familiar with. In the pharmaceutical industry, I can guarantee their advertising funnel is much wider than two social media platforms. Thin…
What's the spending distribution for pharma ads? Hypothetically, if $35 million out of $40 goes to Google and Meta, OP is still right.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#338I do not understand why this is a big deal. There is no world in which ads are embedded in LLM answers, because you'd need another LLM to determine whether the "placement" was correct and included all the information that the advertiser wanted (and it still won't work 100%). They are putting ads on the side, like they've always done, leveraging all the tech that already exists to do this. This is pretty much a no-bra…
> But it seems that the pinnacle of human intelligence: the greatest, smartest, brightest minds have all come together to... build us another ad engine. What happened to superintelligence and AGI?
While we all knew it was inevitable, I think this quote from the article sums up the feeling nicely.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#339Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Suppose you're on an island where the economy only produces coconuts. This is why nobody takes economists seriously. What you lose in simplifying down to this model is literally everything. The coconut economy has zero predictive power. In the real world, distribution effects dramatically affect the functioning of the economy, because workers are also consumers and owners of capital are siphoning off the purchasing…
>This is why nobody takes economists seriously. What you lose in simplifying down to this model is literally everything. The coconut economy has zero predictive power. A simplified model is needed otherwise rigorous analysis becomes impossible, and people make handwavy arguments about how paying workers more means they can spend more, which means factories, and it's a perpetual growth machine! >we’re already massivel…
> A simplified model is needed otherwise rigorous analysis becomes impossible, and people make handwavy arguments about how paying workers more means they can spend more, which means factories, and it's a perpetual growth machine!
I'm no economist but you can't live on an island that only produces coconuts, because the people on that island would quickly start producing other stuff, breaking your premise.
This is like saying cash is useless because amoeba haven't evolved a cash economy.
Re: Predicting OpenAI's ad strategy
#340Earlier quoted context omitted.
Advertising spend being too high is a symptom of a supply glut. Too many products in the marketplace, not enough consumers to buy them. In a different world where there are higher wages, more people would have more spending power. Then companies wouldn't have to spend as many dollars on advertising, which they could split between higher wages, higher margins and lower prices. Alas, the short-term single-firm directio…
>Maybe Henry Ford was on to something when he shocked the world by paying his employees enough to afford the product they were making (more than doubling many workers' wages)... That's a nice story to tell, but the economics never works out if you do the math. Whatever extra wages you pay, you only get a fraction of that back in increased sales. How much percent of a worker's income do you think is spent on a car? As…
Ok, so if he still makes a profit, so what? There are numerous other advantages to a happy and well-compensated workforce, even completely ignoring the societal benefits beyond just the company.