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2025 Letter

danwang.co

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Re: 2025 Letter

#331

Post by snake_doc »

throwaway132448 wrote: post #298
snake_doc wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most Americans have no sense of how very different their country is now from say, the country that launched the Apollo missions. You cannot be kidding right? Those that remember the Apollo missions will undoubtedly agree their country is different, first but not least they are most likely using a smartphone assembled and designed with technology unimaginable by NASA planning the Apollo missions; not only that, the…

That’s not change unique to America though. Why would I be thinking of changes that have affected almost every country, when talking about whether Americans recognize how America has changed? Whether someone remembers the Apollo missions or not is irrelevant to my point. Quite the opposite: It matters more what people who don’t remember think of it, and how distant their assumptions are from the reality of that time.…

> That’s not change unique to America though. Why would I be thinking of changes that have affected almost every country, when talking about whether Americans recognize how America has changed?

Hahahaha, this is like saying, the world wars didn’t impact Europe, because it also impacted the whole world! Europeans, the war didn’t happen!! Anyways… this entire thread is more evidence that European stereotypes are valid for the most part

Re: 2025 Letter

#333

Post by ksec »

dworks wrote: post #195
jjcc wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a very important point that most people missed. China spent decades to achieve the current status. Especially the investment in education, i.e. Human Resource, the most effective ROI but need very long term commitment. Western countries should do the same and do it continuously without consider the economic reward.

Indeed. What we need to do in Europe is spend the next three decades building the industrial, social, technological environment that gives China the advantages it has today, and enables "China Speed". I am worried that we will not do it until after we have gone through a deep crisis, however.

>I am worried that we will not do it until after we have gone through a deep crisis, however.

I hate to say this but this is exactly what is going to happen. And I dont see any way out of it. The same goes to UK as well. And even then I highly doubt "China Speed" will be possible. The absolute case I can see it happening is another "War", but even if speed or velocity were the same we will still lose on "scale".

I wish I am wrong.

Re: 2025 Letter

#334

Post by ksec »

riku_iki wrote: post #205
ksec wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>we see it is 5.5T for Western world vs 4.6T for China (according to my brief google searching). I would bet the unit volume of manufacturing with those 4.6T is more than double that of 5.5T. And those 5.5T likely have some very high value, high margin leading edge equipment. Not only is China catching up to those sectors, they are continuing their momentum to accelerate and expand in other low value market. They key…

> I would bet the unit volume of manufacturing with those 4.6T is more than double that of 5.5T. And those 5.5T likely have some very high value, high margin leading edge equipment. sure, and what's your point? My opinion is that high margin leading edge equipment is more interesting direction than low cost low tech produce.

>sure, and what's your point?

You may want to reread what I wrote.

They key here isn't to maximise profits, it is to maximise control.

Re: 2025 Letter

#335

Post by riku_iki »

ksec wrote: post #334
riku_iki wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would bet the unit volume of manufacturing with those 4.6T is more than double that of 5.5T. And those 5.5T likely have some very high value, high margin leading edge equipment. sure, and what's your point? My opinion is that high margin leading edge equipment is more interesting direction than low cost low tech produce.

>sure, and what's your point? You may want to reread what I wrote. They key here isn't to maximise profits, it is to maximise control.

Maximising control over low margin low tech niches sounds like losing strategy.

Re: 2025 Letter

#336

Post by vanviegen »

ccorcos wrote: post #330
vanviegen wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. What are comments like this > I feel it’s impossible to convince Europeans to act in their self interest. You can’t even convince them to adopt air conditioning in the summer. doing in an article that seems to strive for serious reflection on different societies?

Perhaps he could have been a bit more charitable with his attitude, but do you disagree with his premise? 20k people died from heat exposure last summer in Europe! That seems crazy to me, though what do I know? What am I missing?

I'm finding numbers ranging from 16k (Imperial College London) up to 175k (WHO). All studies I encountered seem to be based on a statistical correlation between heath and death counts, which makes sense as 'heath' is rarely registered as an official cause of death.

Would installing more airco's help? Perhaps, especially some of the poorer regions in the south, hardest hit by climate change, may still have some nursery homes without proper cooling.

But installing airco's isn't even listed in the 4 points of advice provided by the WHO. It's about adapting lifestyles and work practices (think: construction workers) to the changing climate.

The US is not exempt from this. The NY times is reporting a doubling of heath related deaths in recent years, though I can only find numbers based on official causes of death, which cannot be compared to the European numbers.

So no, I don't think this is a great example of all of Europe being too stupid to do even simple things in its own interests.

Re: 2025 Letter

#337

Post by thomasjudge »

"..for all of Trump’s ills, I see him as a sign of the underlying dynamism of the US. Who else would have elected so whimsical a leader to this high office?"

"Whimsical"

Re: 2025 Letter

#338

Post by ccorcos »

vanviegen wrote: post #336
ccorcos wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps he could have been a bit more charitable with his attitude, but do you disagree with his premise? 20k people died from heat exposure last summer in Europe! That seems crazy to me, though what do I know? What am I missing?

I'm finding numbers ranging from 16k (Imperial College London) up to 175k (WHO). All studies I encountered seem to be based on a statistical correlation between heath and death counts, which makes sense as 'heath' is rarely registered as an official cause of death. Would installing more airco's help? Perhaps, especially some of the poorer regions in the south, hardest hit by climate change, may still have some nurser…

I might be missing something because I don’t really understand why you mean by “health” related deaths…

But it seems like you’re making Dan’s point for him. “We need to adapt our lifestyles to climate change” is not an acceptable answer to someone dying of heat stroke who would very much prefer (out of self-interest) air conditioning and a higher standard of living…

Re: 2025 Letter

#340

Post by jimnotgym »

senordevnyc wrote: post #339
jimnotgym wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So brains were leaving Europe for European colonies then? Hardly a brain drain if they were still in your country.

Yeah, and how’d that work out?

After 200 years France fought for their independence to spite the British?
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