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2025: The Year in LLMs

simonwillison.net

331–340 of 643 posts

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't understand why Hacker News is so dismissive about the coming of LLMs I find LLMs incredibly useful, but if you were following along the last few years the promise was for “exponential progress” with a teaser world destroying super intelligence. We objectively are not on that path. There is no “coming of LLMs”. We might get some incremental improvement, but we’re very clearly seeing sigmoid progress. I can’t…

> exponential progress First you need to define what it means. What's the metric? Otherwise it's very much something you can argue about.

Define it however you like. There's not a single chart you can draw that even begins to look like a signoid.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#332
post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just last week Opus 4.5 decided that the way to fix a test was to change the code so that everything else but the test broke. When people say ”fix stuff” I always wonder if it actually means fix, or just make it look like it works (which is extremely common in software, LLM or not).

Nice. Did it realize the mistake and corrected it?

Nope, I did get a lot of fancy markdown with emojis though so I guess that was a nice tradeoff.

In general, even with access to the entire code base (which is very small), I find the inherent need in the models to satisfy the prompter to be their biggest flaw since it tends to constantly lead down this path. I often have to correct over convoluted SQL too because my problems are simple and the training data seems to favor extremely advanced operations.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#333
post #67

Indeed. I don't understand why Hacker News is so dismissive about the coming of LLMs, maybe HN readers are going through 5 stages of grief? But LLM is certainly a game changer, I can see it delivering impact bigger than the internet itself. Both require a lot of investments.

Maybe because the hype for an next gen search engine that can also just make things up when you query it is a bit much?

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#334
> The problem is that the big cloud models got better too—including those open weight models that, while freely available, were far too large (100B+) to run on my laptop.

The actual, notable progress will be models that can run reasonably well on commodity, everyday hardware that the average user has. From more accessibility will come greater usefulness. Right now the way I see it, having to upgrade specs on a machine to run local models keeps it in a niche hobbyist bubble.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's all very impressive, to be sure. But are you sure you're getting the point? As of 2025, LLMs are now very good at writing new code, creating new imagery, and writing original text. They continue to improve at a remarkable rate. They are helping their users create things that didn't exist before. Additionally, they are now very good at searching and utilizing web resources that didn't exist at training time. So…

I think the confusion is people's misunderstanding of what 'new code' and 'new imagery' mean. Yes, LLMs can generate a specific CRUD webapp that hasn't existed before but only based on interpolating between the history of existing CRUD webapps. I mean traditional Markov Chains can also produce 'new' text in the sense that "this exact text" hasn't been seen before, but nobody would argue that traditional Markov Chains…

> It's pretty clear you don't have a solid background in generative models, because this is fundamentally what they do

You don’t have a solid background. No one does. We fundamentally don’t understand LLMs, this is an industry and academic opinion. Sure there are high level perspectives and analogies we can apply to LLMs and machine learning in general like probability distributions, curve fitting or interpolations… but those explanations are so high level that they can essentially be applied to humans as well. At a lower level we cannot describe what’s going on. We have no idea how to reconstruct the logic of how an LLM arrived at a specific output from a specific input.

It is impossible to have any sort of deterministic function, process or anything produce new information from old information. This limitation is fundamental to logic and math and thus it will limit human output as well.

You can combine information you can transform information you can lose information. But producing new information from old information from deterministic intelligence is fundamentally impossible in reality and therefore fundamentally impossible for LLMs and humans. But note the keyword: “deterministic”

New information can literally only arise through stochastic processes. That’s all you have in reality. We know it’s stochastic because determinism vs. stochasticism are literally your only two viable options. You have a bunch of inputs, the outputs derived from it are either purely deterministic transformations or if you want some new stuff from the input you must apply randomness. That’s it.

That’s essentially what creativity is. There is literally no other logical way to generate “new information”. Purely random is never really useful so “useful information” arrives only after it is filtered and we use past information to filter the stochastic output and “select” something that’s not wildly random. We also only use randomness to perturb the output a little bit so it’s not too crazy.

In the end it’s this selection process and stochastic process combined that forms creativity. We know this is a general aspect of how creativity works because there’s literally no other way to do it.

LLMs do have stochastic aspects to them so we know for a fact it is generating new things and not just drawing on the past. We know it can fit our definition of “creative” and we can literally see it be creative in front of your eyes.

You’re ignoring what you see with your eyes and drawing your conclusions from a model of LLMs that isn’t fully accurate. Or you’re not fully tying the mechanisms of how LLMs work with what creativity or generating new data from past data is in actuality.

The fundamental limitation with LLMs is not that it can’t create new things. It’s that the context window is too small to create new things beyond that. Whatever it can create it is limited to the possibilities within that window and that sets a limitation on creativity.

What you see happening with LEAN can also be an issue with the context window being too small. If we have an LLM with a giant context window bigger than anything before… and pass it all the necessary data to “learn” and be “trained” on lean it can likely start to produce new theorems without literally being “trained”.

Actually I wouldn’t call this a “fundamental” problem. More fundamental is the aspect of hallucinations. The fact that LLMs produce new information from past information in the WRONG way. Literally making up bullshit out of thin air. It’s the opposite problem of what you’re describing. These things are too creative and making up too much stuff.

We have hints that LLMs know the difference between hallucinations and reality but coaxing it to communicate that differentiation to us is limited.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just last week Opus 4.5 decided that the way to fix a test was to change the code so that everything else but the test broke. When people say ”fix stuff” I always wonder if it actually means fix, or just make it look like it works (which is extremely common in software, LLM or not).

Sure, I get an occasional bad result from Opus - then I revert and try again, or ask it for a fix. Even with a couple of restarts, it's going to be faster than me on average. (And that's ignoring the situations where I have to restart myself) Basically, you're saying it's not perfect. I don't think anyone is claiming otherwise.

It’s not about being perfect, it’s about not being as great as the marketing, and many proponents, claim.

The issue is that there’s no common definition of ”fixed”. ”Make it run no matter what” is a more apt description in my experience, which works to a point but then becomes very painful.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#337
OpenSCAD-coding has improved significantly on all models. Now syntax is always right and they understand the concept of negative space.

Only problem is that they don't see connection between form and function. They may make teapot perfectly but don't understand that this form is supposed to contain liquid.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#338
post #273

Re: yolo mode I looked into docker and then realized the problem I'm actually trying to solve was solved in like 1970 with users and permissions. I just made a agent user limited to its own home folder, and added my user to its group. Then I run Claude code etc as the agent user. So it can only read write /home/agent, and it cannot read or write my files. I add myself to agent group so I can read/write the agent file…

Docker in docker, with opencode.

Opencode plus some scripts on host and in its container works well to run yolo and only see what it needs (via mounting). Has git tools but can't push etc. is thought how to run tests with the special container-in-container setup.

Including pre-configured MCPs, skills, etc.

The best part is that it just works for everyone on the team, big plus.

Re: 2025: The Year in LLMs

#340
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is promotional spam. But given the volume of LLM slop, it was kind of obvious and known that even the moderators now have "favourites" over guidelines. > Please don't use HN primarily for promotion. It's ok to post your own stuff part of the time, but the primary use of the site should be for curiosity. [0] The blog itself is clearly used as promotion all the time when the original source(s) are buried deep in the…

The operative word there is "primarily". Simon comments on a variety of topics and has far more interactions that don't link to his blog than do. Simon's posts are not engagement farming by any definition of the term. He posts good content frequently which is then upvoted by the Hacker News community, which should be the ideal for a Hacker News contributor.

Except that the "content" that reaches the top is always about AI / LLMs and nothing else and it is "all the time". Any opportunity to comment, he will link back to his own blog.

He even reposted the same link (which is about AI) with one of his posts when the upvotes fell off and until the second one reached the top, with the intention of promoting his own blog.

Let me simply prove my point to you on how predictable this spam is.

He will do a blog post this month about this paper [0] with an expert analysis by either someone else (or even an LLM) with the primary intention of the blog being used for self promotion with at least one link back to his own blog.

> ...which is then upvoted by the Hacker News community

You don't know that. But what we do know is that even the moderators now have "favourites". Anyone else would be shot down for promotional spam.

[0] https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.24880

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