331–340 of 777 posts
What does it mean for the AI bubble to pop? Everyone stops using AI en masse and we go back to the old ways? Cloud based AI no longer becomes an available product?
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Because as with the internet 99% of the usage won’t be for education, work, personal development, what have you. It will be for effing kitten videos and memes.
Are the posters of effing kitten videos a customer base with a significant LTV? (The obvious well-paying market would be erotic / furry / porn, but it's too toxic to publicly touch, at least in the US.)
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There is a pretty big moat for Google: extreme amounts of video data on their existing services and absolutely no dependence on Nvidia and it's 90% margin.
On paper, Google should never have allowed the ChatGPT moment to happen ; how did a then non-profit create what was basically a better search engine than Google? Google suffers from classic Innovator's Dilemma and need competition to refocus on what ought to be basic survival instincts. What is worse is the search users are not the customers. The customers of Google Search are the advertisers and they will always pri…
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Yes, but that is the standard methodology for startups in their boost phase. Burn vast piles of cash to acquire users, then find out at the end if a profitable business can be made of it.
It’s also the standard methodology for a number of scams.
AI is going to be a highly-competitive, extremely capital-intensive commodity market that ends up in a race to the bottom competing on cost and efficiency of delivering models that have all reached the same asymptotic performance in the sense of intelligence, reasoning, etc. The simple evidence for this is that everyone who has invested the same resources in AI has produced roughly the same result. OpenAI, Anthropic,…
AI is going to be a highly-competitive, extremely capital-intensive commodity market that ends up in a race to the bottom competing on cost and efficiency of delivering models that have all reached the same asymptotic performance in the sense of intelligence, reasoning, etc. The simple evidence for this is that everyone who has invested the same resources in AI has produced roughly the same result. OpenAI, Anthropic,…
> There's no evidence of a technological moat or a competitive advantage in any of these companies. I disagree based on personal experience. OpenAI is a step above in usefulness. Codex and GPT 5.2 Pro have no peers right now. I'm happy to pay them $200/month. I don't use my Google Pro subscription much. Gemini 3.0 Pro spends 1/10th of the time thinking compared to GPT 5.2 Thinking and outputs a worse answer or ignore…
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There is a pretty big moat for Google: extreme amounts of video data on their existing services and absolutely no dependence on Nvidia and it's 90% margin.
On paper, Google should never have allowed the ChatGPT moment to happen ; how did a then non-profit create what was basically a better search engine than Google? Google suffers from classic Innovator's Dilemma and need competition to refocus on what ought to be basic survival instincts. What is worse is the search users are not the customers. The customers of Google Search are the advertisers and they will always pri…
It's like that old concept of saying something wrong in a forum on purpose to have everyone flame you for being wrong and needing to prove themselves better by each writing more elaborate answers.
You catch more fish with bait.
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Like I said, they aren't "that" dumb. They are playing a risky game, but when they see the number go down rapidly they will pull. Which will make the line go down even faster. >And even in the worst case scenario, a 10-15% decline in the S&P 500 won't trigger the next Great Depression Only if you believe the 10% decline won't domino and that the S&P500 is secluded from the rest of the global economy. I wish I shared…
> Only if you believe the 10% decline won't domino and that the S&P500 is secluded from the rest of the global economy. I wish I shared your optimism. So your hypothesis is that a 10% decline in the S&P 500 will trigger the next Great Depression, i.e. years of negative GDP growth and unemployment? I agree that it could cause a slight economic slowdown, but I don't think AI and tech stocks are a large enough part of t…
Yup. I won't say it's the only factor, nor biggest. But I'm focusing on this topic and not 40+ years of government economic abandonment of the working class. It's the straw that will break the camel's back.
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Doesn't sound like a very profitable problem to solve. At least, not in the long term (which no one orchestrating this is thinking in).
Long term is feudalism, the short term is how we get there.
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On paper, Google should never have allowed the ChatGPT moment to happen ; how did a then non-profit create what was basically a better search engine than Google? Google suffers from classic Innovator's Dilemma and need competition to refocus on what ought to be basic survival instincts. What is worse is the search users are not the customers. The customers of Google Search are the advertisers and they will always pri…
Exactly, Google's business isn't search, it's ads. Is ChatGPT a more profitable system for delivering ads? That doesn't appear so, which means there's really no reason for Google to have created it first.
This will be hard for them to integrate in a way that won't annoy users / will be better implemented than any other competitor in the same space.
Or perhaps we just deal with all AI across the board serving us ads.... this makes more sense unfortunately.