Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

Post by jb1991 » Thu, Nov 06, 2025, 1:44 PM UTC

weird-eye-issue wrote: post #299

jb1991 wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I find the reporting of underlying value more useful than the price paid in puts, since it reflects the asset itself rather than an arbitrary price for an option that could be any of many different strikes or expirations. The option price itself is not that meaningful.

> The option price itself is not that meaningful. Except it's literally what determines how much money is at risk in the trade. If you buy puts the actual underlying asset value doesn't matter as much as the value of the option itself (which is based on several factors such as time, strike price, etc)

Post by jb1991 » Thu, Nov 06, 2025, 3:14 PM UTC

geor9e wrote: post #324

jb1991 wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally I find the reporting of underlying value more useful than the price paid in puts, since it reflects the asset itself rather than an arbitrary price for an option that could be any of many different strikes or expirations. The option price itself is not that meaningful.

>The option price itself is not that meaningful. It is the most meaningful thing. It's the exact amount of money you are risking. It's the exact amount you lose if it doesn't strike. If I buy a put for $2, the most I can lose is $2. It's meaningful even with no other information. 13F notional value, on the other hand, is meaningless without more info.

Post by slashdev » Thu, Nov 06, 2025, 4:07 PM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #264

slashdev wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are puts, you buy them, they have a fixed expiration date at which point they will be worthless if the price is above the strike price. Fixed down side, upside is $100 per contract per dollar the stock is below the strike at expiry. You can also sell them before then, and price depends on time to expiry, volatility, and distance to the strike price. See Black-Scholes model for more info.

Are you actually disagreeing with this? > If you're off, it could still crash and you could spend more money sustaining the position than you'd make. And in Black Scholes this is called Theta Decay. In any form of short, there are maintenance costs, and maintenance costs roughly scale with the risk-free interest rate (usually assumed to be roughly the Federal Reserve's overnight lending rate) Theta Decay is above-and…

Post by danielmarkbruce » Thu, Nov 06, 2025, 6:06 PM UTC

Incipient wrote: post #329

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been talking about competing and trying to compete with the nvidia GPU/Cuda stack for almost 20 years (since the start). There have been various efforts. They have all fallen flat. Nvidia isn't standing still, the target keeps moving forward. To suggest Nvidia will have the game to themselves for another 10 years might turn out to be wrong, but it isn't naive. You are the naive one here.

There hasn't really been any significant money in competing with cuda however. Nvidia had a bit of a gaming premium over amd, and crypto really boosted all GPUs...but until about 3 years ago, there wasn't literally trillions of dollars on the line to replace cuda. There is now. Companies ARE replicating it. The Mi300 is very competitive on token throughput as far as I'm aware. No one is sitting around. I'd argue if t…

Post by dragontamer » Thu, Nov 06, 2025, 9:05 PM UTC

slashdev wrote: post #335

dragontamer wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you actually disagreeing with this? > If you're off, it could still crash and you could spend more money sustaining the position than you'd make. And in Black Scholes this is called Theta Decay. In any form of short, there are maintenance costs, and maintenance costs roughly scale with the risk-free interest rate (usually assumed to be roughly the Federal Reserve's overnight lending rate) Theta Decay is above-and…

Disagreeing with this: > Or you could end up getting margin called That's not how puts work. The premium you shelled out when you bought them is your maximum loss. You won't get margin called if you paid cash. Unlike shorts the losses are limited, but you also have to time it correctly. Theta decay hurts.