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AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

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Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#331

Post by blihp »

SirMaster wrote: post #276
blihp wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try to use AMD GPU's for AI and you'll understand. Unless you have lots of your own engineers to throw at making their stuff work, it's easier for most companies just to keep throwing money nVidia's way.

I understand that it's that way today. But I am talking about "potential". If OpenAI and AMD engineers get their heads together and make some new software etc, couldn't AMD in theory become as valuable as Nvidia or at least half as valuable? It seems like to take a 350M market cap company to 2B+ or a 6x+ increase in stock price would be worth doing for a few hundred million dollar investment in software and such?

By the time that could feasibly come to fruition, I suspect the AI bubble will have long since popped. Despite making decent GPUs for graphics, AMD can't seem to get its act together on the GPU compute front.

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#332

Post by brandon272 »

mmmBacon wrote: post #313
joenot443 wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fully anecdotal, but nearly every knowledge worker I know has Copilot or ChatGPT or some kind of corporate LLM subscription included in their job now. I don’t think the majority use it very well, but I know at least a handful who do. Corporate America seems ready to spend real money on AI, at least for now. This money being spent today doesn’t come close to recouping the investment OpenAI et al have made, but the tri…

I am personally paying $200/month for the ChatGPT pro version. It’s the best investment I’ve made in my career in a long time. It’s like having 2-3 direct reports. The alternatives provided by my companies are too slow and aren’t anywhere as good. If people start using it anywhere near how I’m using it, there will be profound changes to the workplace in the coming 3 years.

What are you doing with it?

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#333

Post by btown »

puppymaster wrote: post #310
alienthrowaway wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back in the dotcom boom years, Internet adoption growth was real - with a lot of people and businesses paying real money to get online. And yet, the dotcom bust happened. The existence of paying customers adopting a technology does not assure the sustainability of the industry at any point in time.

i dont see dotcom technologies replacing droves of workers and creating panics in /r/screenwriters, /r/3dmodelers etc. The displacement is real and we are not going back. Dotcom tech created fake problems so their 'advance technology solution' can be presented as solution. With AI wave, it's the opposite - business heads are actually thinking 'what other real problems can i solve with AI'. OpenAi and Claude don't eve…

Two things could simultaneously be true: (a) trillions of dollars in value will be created/replaced/subsumed by AI solutions, and (b) even with near-universal adoption among knowledge workers, the value captured by the vendors of advanced AI solutions may never rise high enough to justify the valuations we're seeing now.

OpenAI's bet is that its frontier models will be so far ahead of the current status quo that, if they are the only ones providing those frontier models, they will be able to name their price (to end users and advertisers alike) while increasing their share of spend in the space.

But even today, last-generation and open-source models form a meaningful portion of adopted solutions. Not every application in 2028 will need the AGI-approaching GPT-10 - especially if those applications can leverage a relatively small amount of code, perhaps even written by that GPT-10, that can in turn orchestrate (say) DeepSeek V5 running on compute that can be obtained for pennies on the dollar.

OpenAI could become a victim of its own success, and cause a house of cards to take down the global economy in the process. I personally hope this doesn't happen, but there is real risk here.

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#334

Post by amir734jj »

OtherShrezzing wrote: post #52

Feels like we're living through a Michael Lewis book. OpenAI estimate that it takes around $50bn to stand up a 1GW datacenter. This deal is 6GW worth of chips. Their projected revenues out to YE-2029 are $300bn. OpenAI will spend a decades worth of revenues building & filling the datacenters to house these chips, before accounting for their AI research, training, or inference spend.

Sorry, dumb question. Which book? I am curious about the book :)

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#335

Post by alienthrowaway »

puppymaster wrote: post #310
alienthrowaway wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back in the dotcom boom years, Internet adoption growth was real - with a lot of people and businesses paying real money to get online. And yet, the dotcom bust happened. The existence of paying customers adopting a technology does not assure the sustainability of the industry at any point in time.

i dont see dotcom technologies replacing droves of workers and creating panics in /r/screenwriters, /r/3dmodelers etc. The displacement is real and we are not going back. Dotcom tech created fake problems so their 'advance technology solution' can be presented as solution. With AI wave, it's the opposite - business heads are actually thinking 'what other real problems can i solve with AI'. OpenAi and Claude don't eve…

You missed my point entirely. There was real value created during the dotcom boom too: Amazon, eBay, PayPal, Google, etc did not 'create fake problems'. Amidst the pearls of real value, were dozens/hundreds of overvalued, dogshit companies which never get a ROI for their investors, and the even marginally useful companies went under when the market correction hit.

There will be the WebVans of the AI boom era, we just don't know their names yet. There also will be Ciscos and Suns that will never reach their high-water mark ever again, or become obsolete in a few years, and sold for less that what people expect.

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#336

Post by fooker »

andrewstuart wrote: post #48
findthewords wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's quite obvious why Lisa Su isn't motivated to financially crush her first cousin once removed. AMD is doing quite well in the CPU space and as such isn't even forced to compete in the GPU space. AMD could take market share from Nvidia, but they don't have to, because there is no one else who would take it either.

So the “we’re so successful, we don’t need any more business, so we’re just cruising”, strategy eh? Doesn’t resonate for me as how most American companies do business.

'American' companies have moved on to Fintech, hedge funds, real estate, and private equity. No big tech company now is run like an 'American' company. Take a look at the C suite and other leadership positions.

Yes, AMD was doing that as long as Nvidia was mostly avoiding high performance CPUs.

But with The Nvidia-Intel partnership all bets are off, hence you're seeing this deal now.

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#337

Post by hurricanepootis »

ctas wrote: post #290
buyucu wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HIP/ROCm is waaay better than it was a few years ago. It took a very long time, but AMD finally learned the importance of software.

Are consumer cards also benefiting from the improvements or only datacenters?

For me personally, blender uses ROCm and ROCm hiprt for Cycles tracing and cycles raytracing acceleration. I am using a Radeon RX 6800 and AMD Ryzen AI 7 350, and it works on Linux. ROCm HIPRT really does speed up cycles rendering (at the cost of more Vram usage). Of course, using the AMD driver on Linux, you get access to the system's RAM with GTT.

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#338

Post by OtherShrezzing »

amir734jj wrote: post #334
OtherShrezzing wrote: post #52

Feels like we're living through a Michael Lewis book. OpenAI estimate that it takes around $50bn to stand up a 1GW datacenter. This deal is 6GW worth of chips. Their projected revenues out to YE-2029 are $300bn. OpenAI will spend a decades worth of revenues building & filling the datacenters to house these chips, before accounting for their AI research, training, or inference spend.

Sorry, dumb question. Which book? I am curious about the book :)

Michael Lewis has written a bunch of books about financial crises and their origins. He wrote The Big Short for example.

If you’re into tech & startups, he wrote Going Infinite about FTX, and Flash Boys about high frequency trading.

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#339

Post by nake89 »

geerlingguy wrote: post #329
PessimalDecimal wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a company gave away some portion of is assets, shouldn't its market cap go _down_ by that amount not up? That's how stocks trade ex dividend e.g.

You assume the market is in any way rational...

Reminds me of "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

Re: AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take a 10% stake

#340

Post by larodi »

fancyfredbot wrote: post #260

This $100bn deal didn't cost anything and isn't worth anything. Remember back two weeks ago when Nvidia gave OpenAI $100bn so they can keep buying Nvidia GPUs? This is AMD trying to do the same, but they don't have $100bn so they are offering OpenAI share options to buy GPUs. The share options will be worth at least $100bn too, if the conditions are met. But meeting the conditions will require buying huge numbers of…

Oh will they?

Wonder what they been doing so far, really, as it is only tinygrad that been voraciously pushing for these drivers in recent years, not even AMD themselves. Besides, given ClosedAI's the wonderful record of releasing stuff to the public, even if this happens, may benefit only inside tech, not the general audience.

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