Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately the chips themselves probably won’t physically last much longer than that under the workloads they are being put to. So, yes, they won’t be totally obsolete as technology in 2028, but they may still have to be replaced.
Do we actually know how they're degrading? Are there still Pascals out there? If not, is it because they actual broke or because of poor performance? I understand it's tempting to say near 100% workload for multiple years = fast degradation, but what are the actual stats? Are you talking specifically about the actual compute chip or the whole compute system -- I know there's a big difference now with the systems Nvid…
* memory IC failure
* power delivery component failure
* dead core
* cracked BGA solder joints on core
* damaged PCB due to sag
These issues are compounded by
* huge power consumption and heat output of core and memory, compared to system CPU/memory
* physical size of core leads to more potential for solder joint fracture due to thermal expansion/contraction
* everything needs to fit in PCIe card form factor
* memory and core not socketed, if one fails (or supporting circuitry on the PCB fails) then either expensive repair or the card becomes scrap
* some vendors have cards with design flaws which lead to early failure
* sometimes poor application of thermal paste/pads at factory (eg, only half of core making contact
* and, in my experience in aquiring 4-5 year old GPUs to build gaming PCs with (to sell), almost without fail the thermal paste has dried up and the card is thermal throttling