Live data from Hacker News

Samsung taking market share from Apple in U.S. as foldable phones gain momentum

cnbc.com

331–337 of 337 posts

Re: Samsung taking market share from Apple in U.S. as foldable phones gain momentum

#331
post #230
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you even saying? It's funny you think I'm bragging. Here is the thing, people are buying foldables only to show off, the functionality/usefulness makes no sense for the vast majority of people. Which is why they are still expensive and it will stay that way. Even tech reviewers with infinite choices and zero affordability issues are not using them. If they were any good, they would be using them daily, but i…

Stop arguing, just go to a store and try a folding phone, there's a reason people see them as the next big unlock

Why would I stop arguing if I like it? Why even be here otherwise?

I have various Samsung foldables in hand, yes. I am definitely impressed by how far they have gotten but it doesn't change the fundamentals.

The flip style is just plain dumb. External display is almost useless and you need to open it to do anything useful. They are smaller when closed but also thicker which just aggravates the bulk at the bottom of your pocket when regular sized phones were fine thickness and heigh wise; and the weight is about the same. For all those compromises you just get a longer screen, which is stupid since the primary mode of interaction is scrolling. Increasing height without increasing width in proportion is useless, you can just fit more stuff vertically that were already convenient to scroll through.

Foldables have more practicality since the external screen is often fully featured and can be used like a regular phone. But that's not a very strong argument since that's what is asked from any basic smartphone, down to the dirt-cheap ones. When open they have decent usefulness at first glance but nowhere near enough to make up for the compromises they require of you. The aspect ratio is always fucked up in order to maintain the external display viability. Even for basic stuff like watching videos, they have a bigger screen for sure but a big part of it goes unexploited. For many typical apps they don't make good use of the larger area because those apps are optimized for scrolling since that's the primary way of managing content for all smartphones (this is very similar to the bigger area in bigger phones that just go to waste for displaying white space, except worse). The "killer" feature is supposed to be multitasking, which for sure they are definitely better at than regular phones. Except the primary limitation for multitasking on phones isn't just the display size. You still have to rely on softwares that are made for quick interactions with a lot of space used for touch target so it is usable with your fingers. There is no hover state and all inputs are made for ease of use primarily, not efficient workflow. Typing can be better at the expense of a large display area for it which largely defeats the purpose of a bigger display. If you were in need of productivity, it makes no sense to still be slowed down by inefficient input and lackluster software. At this point you might as well carry a tablet with a keyboard or a small laptop, if you are going to have enough downtime that this is a reasonable expectation the immediacy of something that you can get out of your pocket isn't very relevant. What's more, because of physical constraint their battery life just sucks. They need to be thin to even be viable, so you end up with less space for batteries because a lot of it is used for the displays and mechanism, yet they consume more power because of the bigger display. So, even for a use case I can get behind like reading, they end up giving you less. You have more space but with a bad aspect ratio and you just end up killing the battery faster compromising the phone viability for the other stuff a phone is useful for in everyday life. You are promised more but in practice you just get less.

When Jobs announced and showed how the iPhone worked, I knew right away they had found the correct recipe. That's because I was using a Windows Mobile "smartphone" at this point and I had experienced first-hand how bad it was in practice at most things. It required stylus input most of the time, creating too much friction for most quick interactions that you require from something living in your pocket. The breakthrough of the iPhone wasn't the hardware; it was the careful design of the software around it that allowed fast and easy interaction for most useful things (even the way you would be able to navigate in desktop class web page before website became fully mobile was quite good). It cames at the cost of functionality and efficiency in the software but that was exactly what made it viable as a pocketable device.

Foldables reintroduce friction while only offering minor benefits that are still worse than something like an iPad Mini that wouldn't add much more friction (instead of having it in your pocket, you need to carry in a small bag) but provide a better experience for basically everything.

There is also the unavoidable problem of the crease (the annoying reflections/diffraction it creates) and the worse feeling/experience of a display that isn't glass covered. To top it off, you end up with durability problems that are plaguing the whole category and aren't solvable unless they come with some glass that would basically be magic considering the science on that.

The reality is that foldables are fundamentally flawed and there is no amount of technical refinement that will change that. To keep the typical smartphone usefulness, you need to compromise the tablet experience and vice-versa. They end up being worse at both use cases while not even saving you money. This fact actually should actually tell you something: they are more expensive than buying both a regular smartphone and small tablet. It makes no sense because they use less materials by definition and the engineering costs should be spread across all units. Since the volume is so small that is not the case. That means they are supply driven items, something that manufacturers are pushing to increase the profit per item and absolutely not something that people are asking for. Which is exactly why they are a show-off luxury item, they make no financial sense and this is actually their primary feature. It allows you to announce to the world you have enough disposable income to not care about practicality. They are just like the impractical sports cars a young fool would buy before he gets financially wiser or the absurdly expensive mechanical watch a successful business executive would buy to announce his success. Except that instead of targeting tiny markets those things have, they are targeting the upper middle class. The per unit profit is lower but the volume is potentially much bigger, there is money to be made thus it gets made.

They remind me of the "multifunction" cooking robots (like the Thermomix) that promise to do everything yet cannot do anything well and efficiently. They have motors that are too slow to make a good blender but too little torque to make a good processor. The jug they use is too large for proper cavitation yet too small to accept raw ingredients without preprocessing. And they don't cost less than the combination of devices with equal capabilities. They are driven by the same marketing fundamentals, as something that adds convenience but actually loses efficiency and quality if you were to try using them for what they pretend to do. Unsurprisingly they target bored middle-class women just like much of the large smartphones, and, ultimately the foldables.

So here it is, I understand why Foldable exists. I get the "reasons" some will get one and I find the engineering prowess very cool. But they will never be the "next big unlock". And they don't have to be, they are not a tool in any practical sense. That's fine but it's just not for me.

Re: Samsung taking market share from Apple in U.S. as foldable phones gain momentum

#332
post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you can find me credible evidence that Unihertz will support the device for 5+ years, delivering major version upgrades and timely security patches, then I'll take back what I said. In 2025, a lax approach to the OS lifecycle (especially with security patches) isn't legitimate and respectable.

> If you can find me credible evidence that Unihertz will support the device for 5+ years, delivering major version upgrades and timely security patches... You don't even get that with most Pixel phones. Through to the Pixel 5 family, you only get three years of updates, period. Through to the Pixel 7 family, you get an additional two of security updates. It's not until the Pixel 8 family that you're getting what you…

> That's a lot of "e-waste" that Google only recently stopped generating. ;)

Yep, agreed. While my "e-waste" epithet was deliberately inflammatory, I really do have a problem with what they and others were doing before. Thankfully, with newer Pixels (and Galaxies, iirc), that's getting better on the Android side.

> I'm not sure why you consider the current five-years-of-updates policy to not be creating an unacceptable amount of e-waste. I have (and still use) nearly-twenty-year-old laptops with the latest Linux kernel and desktop environment software (& etc) versions available.

You're getting sidetracked from my original point (that Unihertz's practically nonexistent support disqualifies it for me), but I would certainly like to have higher standards! Core smartphone hardware has matured to the point where I would like to see 10+ year lifetimes.

However, you're making a false equivalence here; a smartphone is at the mercy of the vendor to provide updates, while a laptop (thanks to commoditized hardware and a lot of work in the Linux kernel) has a more stable base to work from. Again, if we could reach that place for smartphones, I would be into it. But until we're at the point where you can viably buy a 10+ year-old phone and install a supported operating system (where "supported" includes critical firmware updates), this is a bad comparison.

Re: Samsung taking market share from Apple in U.S. as foldable phones gain momentum

#333
post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FOSS heliboard is a strong competitor to Gboard.

I just tried to use Heliboard. It has many rough edges, I'll file issues to see it they can be improved. For one thing, the voice typing is useless. It respects neither the language of the full keyboard nor the language shown in its interface. And that separate interface needs to be brought up separately, thus requiring many taps - exactly what I'm avoiding by using voice typing in the first place. Selecting text the…

I use the swipe library (Glide typing) but you need to install that seperately.

Apparently the voice input is not coming from Heliboard. You could use an alternative service like futo voice input.

https://voiceinput.futo.org/

Re: Samsung taking market share from Apple in U.S. as foldable phones gain momentum

#334
post #330
post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is just below 9mm which I'll agree is impressive. Most of the dimensions are in the acceptable range compared to "Pro" models of competitive brands. But I find those already too much, and a pain to carry in most of my pockets. It also cost over 2000€ which is more than a Pro iPhone plus iPad combo, while only giving you the benefit of being somewhat pocketable. It is not a better phone and a much worse tablet. If…

They're tech demonstrators as far as I'm concerned. I'm not going to buy them at 2000€ but they will be 800€ at some point in the near future and I will almost for sure buy one then.

Well if they were to reach that price, they would make a bit more sense since it would mean mostly giving up battery life for a bit more versatility.

But I seriously doubt it will happen in any reasonable time frame. They are fundamentally supply driven, pushed by companies marketing tech they want to sell for a bigger profit.

To become a commodity, the "pro" phones would first need to come down in price so that they are not such a big differentiating factor. Yet the companies keep adding more stuff to those in order to have the price stay around 1K.

Because the rate of improvement has slowed, we can observe the start of price compression, mid-range slab phones have become much more usable and fully featured. But there is a long way to go, Apple has only started this year to trickle down some of the pro features to their base model (mostly pro motion). To get to the 800 figure you need to have regular fully featured slab phones at around the 500 mark otherwise it doesn't make economic sense for companies to sell them at this price.

Considering where we are at this price point with the iPhone 16e (Apple is basically the price setter for much of the market), I wouldn't hold my breath.

I actually predict the reverse. Slab phones will keep getting better in the mid-range, to the point where it's going to be hard to argue for any other choice for most people. Cheap phones will get good enough to the point that they are not completely horrible but will stay a relatively poor value, using older tech in exchange or moderate savings. High-end phones will stay expensive (or even increase in price sightly) with various differentiating "features" and convenience that are unessential but good for bragging point or displaying your superiority. Foldables will stay at the apex and try to have everything of the high-end slabs but with the folding functionality as a bonus.

It is basically what the car market is, which is almost a commodity nowadays. You have the cheap cars that offer everything truly necessary for basic use but make some compromises on quality and technological refinement. Then you have the mid-range that has basically everything you could need at good enough quality/confort level while being technically up to date. And at the high-end of the market, you have the luxurious cars, German style, where you get everything a mid-range car would get you but with better quality and some features that are mostly about bragging rights and social status.

In getting commoditized the smartphone will follow a somewhat normal distribution when considering volume shipped with a larger share of the profits coming from the far end. I expect foldables to stay in that far end for quite a long time. After the iPhone launch, smartphones overtook every other type of phone at every single price point in just a few years. If foldable were going to take over, it would have happened by now, but volume has stalled and even regressed. Maybe they can get it going with major price drops but it hasn't been necessary for the slab smartphones, in fact as usefulness increased, prices increased as well.

I'm going to add that those market dynamics are exactly why we are getting an iPhone Air this year. It is a phone purely made as a differentiation factor to allow for a bigger price while not offering much practical value in return. It is made for people who would spend more than what the base iPhone sell for but also don't really care about any of the features of the "Pro" models because they wouldn't use them much and wouldn't be able to tell the difference in everyday use while paying the cost of weight/size (I don't know why they made the screen bigger than the base pro, there is probably something supply side pushing for this decision). That way they can sell more status than a base phone would provide (that is hilarious equal or better in most relevant specs) while keeping the BOM very close and thus get more profit. Outside of this the phone makes no sense; it's thinness and weight saving have no practical value because they are so small that they cannot fundamentally change the typical experience of using a smartphone.

If Apple can ever get behind the durability/quality compromise of a foldable display it is probably a "try run" for an Apple foldable that would be likely sold at twice the price while not increasing the BOM anywhere near that. It won't be better at much of anything than their pro models but that is basically the point: keep expanding the price range at the high end where profits are still to be made. They know that their basic phone will eventually have to offer even more or lower in price to stay competitive (which is why they increase the base storage ahead of the competition this year). Apple has always been able to extract more profit by staying ahead of the curve in this way. They intuitively understand the social value of technology more than the technology itself, that has made their success. High-end Androids are niche for basically the reverse reason of high-end iPhones dominating the top of the price brackets: no matter how good they get, they will never provide the same social status and coolness of an iPhone. It is thus a bit "stupid" to overspend on a smartphone and it not being an iPhone. Androids' manufacturers have struggled to make their stuff better for this reason, volumes at the high-end cannot warrant the same investment than Apple is able to make. They are constrained by bottom-up economics while Apple has fun with trickle-down economics. For this reason, if Apple is ever to release a foldable, I expect the volume of Android foldables to decrease or lower their price, in the process rendering their primary appeal less effective, still resulting in lower volume over time.

Re: Samsung taking market share from Apple in U.S. as foldable phones gain momentum

#335
post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you can find me credible evidence that Unihertz will support the device for 5+ years, delivering major version upgrades and timely security patches... You don't even get that with most Pixel phones. Through to the Pixel 5 family, you only get three years of updates, period. Through to the Pixel 7 family, you get an additional two of security updates. It's not until the Pixel 8 family that you're getting what you…

> That's a lot of "e-waste" that Google only recently stopped generating. ;) Yep, agreed. While my "e-waste" epithet was deliberately inflammatory, I really do have a problem with what they and others were doing before. Thankfully, with newer Pixels (and Galaxies, iirc), that's getting better on the Android side. > I'm not sure why you consider the current five-years-of-updates policy to not be creating an unacceptab…

> ...my original point [was] ... that Unihertz's practically nonexistent support disqualifies it for me...

You are aware that a lot of Android's security-relevant stuff is provided in one or more "apps" [0] that get regularly updated? IIRC, way back in the day Google used to ship all of the system software in one immutable blob that relied on OTA updates. However, Google found that telcos would often take way too long to approve handset updates... so Google split most of the security-relevant code out into something whose update system they fully controlled.

1) Do you know how much security-relevant stuff is contained in the base OS vs those "apps"?

2) Were you aware that Android 14 is still a supported version of Android?

3) Were you aware that Android 13 is also still supported?

4) Did you know that those split out "apps" that I was talking about support all the way back to Android 6?

> However, you're making a false equivalence here...

Nope. You're thinking much too narrowly.

> ...a smartphone is at the mercy of the vendor to provide updates, while a laptop (thanks to commoditized hardware and a lot of work in the Linux kernel) has a more stable base to work from.

You can select laptops that have components that don't work with Linux, or only work with particular kernel versions. That "lot" of work in the Linux kernel that you refer to? A fair chunk of it is "just" working with the various device manufacturers to open source and mainline their drivers.

If Google gave a shit about e-waste, they would have at minimum gotten the relevant phone manufacturers to give Google a source code license to the drivers & etc for the relevant phones and permission to adapt that software to newer kernels and ship compiled binaries in AOSP and Google Android.

But, they didn't do that. So, they clearly don't care.

> Core smartphone hardware has matured to the point where I would like to see 10+ year lifetimes.

We could have seen 10+ year software-support-lifetimes from the phones that shipped with the first commercially-released version of Android. Go take a gander at the huge array of weird-ass one-off device drivers in Linux mainline. "Phone hardware was too immature for it to be adapted to later kernel versions" is a bogus statement.

[0] ...whose name I can no longer remember...

Re: Samsung taking market share from Apple in U.S. as foldable phones gain momentum

#336
post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's a lot of "e-waste" that Google only recently stopped generating. ;) Yep, agreed. While my "e-waste" epithet was deliberately inflammatory, I really do have a problem with what they and others were doing before. Thankfully, with newer Pixels (and Galaxies, iirc), that's getting better on the Android side. > I'm not sure why you consider the current five-years-of-updates policy to not be creating an unacceptab…

> ...my original point [was] ... that Unihertz's practically nonexistent support disqualifies it for me... You are aware that a lot of Android's security-relevant stuff is provided in one or more "apps" [0] that get regularly updated? IIRC, way back in the day Google used to ship all of the system software in one immutable blob that relied on OTA updates. However, Google found that telcos would often take way too lon…

> You are aware that a lot of Android's security-relevant stuff is provided in one or more "apps" [0] that get regularly updated.

Yes, I am aware.

> 1) Do you know how much security-relevant stuff is contained in the base OS vs those "apps"?

No, I'm not very knowledgeable about where the lines get drawn, especially for non-Play-related components. It is a relevant point to make though, and is definitely crucial to this topic. However, from what I can infer (e.g. from blogs and mastodon threads by the GrapheneOS folks), there is plenty of security-relevant OS-level stuff that needs patching over the lifecycle of a device. And firmware-level stuff is almost equally as important. Both these OS-level and firmware-level things are out of scope for these apps that Google pushes.

> 2) Were you aware that Android 14 is still a supported version of Android?

> 3) Were you aware that Android 13 is also still supported?

> 4) Did you know that those split out "apps" that I was talking about support all the way back to Android 6?

Yes. I couldn't have told you that it was Android 6 off the top of my head, but that timeline sounds about right.

> You can select laptops that have components that don't work with Linux, or only work with particular kernel versions. That "lot" of work in the Linux kernel that you refer to? A fair chunk of it is "just" working with the various device manufacturers to open source and mainline their drivers.

That is a good chunk of what I'm referring to, yes. Also in-scope is working with manufactures (of both the device and its components) to provide firmware updates e.g. via fwupd. Afaiu, the baseband for mobile handsets is especially important because it's a highly-privileged component that is

> If Google gave a shit about e-waste, they would have at minimum gotten the relevant phone manufacturers to give Google a source code license to the drivers & etc for the relevant phones and permission to adapt that software to newer kernels and ship compiled binaries in AOSP and Google Android.

> But, they didn't do that. So, they clearly don't care.

I more or less agree with you. But my point isn't that Google cares about e-waste. Rather, my point is that devices with longer lifecycles (e.g. Pixels) are superior to devices with short lifecycles (e.g. Unihertz devices). Which is a pity, because I love so much about the Unihertz design. Almost perfect for me.

> We could have seen 10+ year software-support-lifetimes from the phones that shipped with the first commercially-released version of Android. Go take a gander at the huge array of weird-ass one-off device drivers in Linux mainline. "Phone hardware was too immature for it to be adapted to later kernel versions" is a bogus statement.

I think you've picked out some very specific parts of my response and fixated on those. What I'm saying is that you cannot, in fact, pick up a 10 year-old handset and use it with up-to-date software and firmware[0]. My requirement/desire (which others may not share) is that I should be able to buy a new handset and use it for a bare minimum of 5+ years. As far as I can see, Unihertz's devices do not meet even that pitifully low bar.

[0] Tbh, firmware update support varies greatly for laptop and desktop hardware too. I'm no expert, but seems like lots of room for improvement there.

Re: Samsung taking market share from Apple in U.S. as foldable phones gain momentum

#337
post #286

I still do not understand the appeal of a folding phone. I mean, phones are solid devices now, and they work for years upon years if you don't have some kind of mishap. Putting a hinge in the display 100% is creating a weak point in that display. It's very likely going to reduce lifespan for an expensive device. I get gadgetlust, sure, but is it more that that? The other thing is that even if I wanted a folding displ…

I think there are two factors that drive the purchase. Primarily - it's a status symbol. I am reminded of the scene with Paul Allen's business card... But also that it's useful when you want a larger display surface in a more portable form. Like watching films on an airplane or reading documents without having to constantly swipe & zoom. I agree with the other poster(s) that Apple is likely working on a folding model…

I know quite a few older people who started to cherish them, as they now have the real estate to finally feel at home on a mobile device they can just easily take with them. Tablets were great, just less portable.

So for quite a relevant segment it seems to become an enabling form factor. There are just people who seem to be basing everything on their own use case. I have neither interest nor need for a fold-able phone. But I can totally get why it is not only interesting, but actually useful to people in different circumstances.

Post reply on HN