I'm afraid that open source software supply chain attacks could be much more prevalent than what we are currently aware of. There is a significant market for zero-day exploits, with organizations like the NSA having teams dedicated to collecting and weaponizing them. But finding and exploiting an unintentional zero-day vulnerability is way more difficult than adding an intentional exploitable bug or backdoor to some…
On one hand, I cannot accept that the actors that we see who pull these off are the best and brightest. My gut tells me that these attacks must be happening in more subtle ways from time to time. Maybe they're more targeted, maybe they're not but just have more subtle exfil mechanisms.
On the other, well we have exactly one data point of an attempt at a more subtle attack. And it was thwarted right before it started to see wide-spread distribution.
But also there was a significant amount of luck involved. And what if it hadn't been discovered? We'd still have zero data points, but some unknown actor would possess an SSH skeleton key.
So I don't know what to think.