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Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

fortune.com

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Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#331

Post by h0h0h0h0111 »

rc5150 wrote: post #233
ckemere wrote: post #227

I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly. If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a h…

The unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle, which I think is the common perspective; optics and money. Then there's the pessimists, like me, wondering how long it'll take to Neuralink to turn their army of computer connected paraplegics into some Mechanical Turk-esque Grok clean up.

I don't think it's unfortunate - in principle, return on investment today can achieve greater humanitarian impact tomorrow vs humanitarian impact today.

Of course, this creates a perverse situation where choosing humanitarian impact today over investment is always irrational, but this is the fundamental tension in charity vs investment, and aside from relying on governments and guilt, I'm not sure we have discovered a great model to solve it

Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#332

Post by wolvesechoes »

ckemere wrote: post #227

I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly. If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a h…

> If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a huge win for them for a cost that no one else was willing to pay.

Until subscription price is increased.

Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#333

Post by LunaSea »

maxlin wrote: post #270
ckemere wrote: post #227

I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly. If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a h…

Companies like this going under is a horror story for the patients I've seen playing out a few times. But I honestly can't see something as public and well-funded having the same fate. "Elon Musk losing interest" isn't really something I see likely as he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do. He loves the tech and the ideals, and Neuralink is past the point of e…

> isn't really something I see likely as he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do

Is that why he sued to obtain his $29B package from Tesla shareholders?

Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#334

Post by nsonha »

spondylosaurus wrote: post #199
vjvjvjvjghv wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the brain would adapt. It may take a while but the brain is very flexible and adaptable.

Case studies suggest otherwise, at least for most people. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1993/05/10/to-see-and-not...

don't have full article access but this part near the top makes it not applicable to the situation being discussed (blind from birth)

> since early childhood

Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#335

Post by moomin »

h0h0h0h0111 wrote: post #331
rc5150 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle, which I think is the common perspective; optics and money. Then there's the pessimists, like me, wondering how long it'll take to Neuralink to turn their army of computer connected paraplegics into some Mechanical Turk-esque Grok clean up.

I don't think it's unfortunate - in principle, return on investment today can achieve greater humanitarian impact tomorrow vs humanitarian impact today. Of course, this creates a perverse situation where choosing humanitarian impact today over investment is always irrational, but this is the fundamental tension in charity vs investment, and aside from relying on governments and guilt, I'm not sure we have discovered…

Problem is, when people start to analyse things like this, even apart from falling into utilitarian traps, they don’t apply regular business reasoning.

There’s a bunch of effects to consider 1) improving lives right now may well improve subsequent generations lives directly 2) your future project may have a higher failure rate than your current one 3) the problems you are trying to solve may no longer be relevant in the future 4) you could be very wrong about future population growth.

All of this boils down to: you should be risk-discounting future benefits just the same way as you do future cash flows.

Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#336

Post by Levitz »

BrandoElFollito wrote: post #84
devinprater wrote: post #59

I'll let other blind people go first, but I'm definitely some one that would love, love, love to be able to see. Driving, knowing body language, playing any and every video game out there, shoot yeah!

Why would you not go first? If you are blind it cannot be worse (well it can, but there are always risks). My wife went through semi-expetimental therapy (at that time) for her MS. It was tough but ultimately a net benefit. It all depends on what is at stake - I would consider Ozempic for some weight loss but prefer, for now , go for no sugar and moderate portions. This is not life changing for me so I indeed prefer…

It's a lifelong change and whatever the state of the first release is, chances are in 5 years time there'll be a better version and everything is safer.

Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#337

Post by regularfry »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #323
rc5150 wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle, which I think is the common perspective; optics and money. Then there's the pessimists, like me, wondering how long it'll take to Neuralink to turn their army of computer connected paraplegics into some Mechanical Turk-esque Grok clean up.

> unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle It’s just a pragmatic take on sustainability of innovation. If nobody—no person or government or non-profit—would find value in the future of the work, it merits questioning why do it versus something else.

There's a spectrum here, though. There's a difference between "nobody would find value in the work" and "nobody can figure out how to get VC-level returns from the work on VC timescales."

Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#338

Post by vasco »

maxlin wrote: post #270
ckemere wrote: post #227

I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly. If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a h…

Companies like this going under is a horror story for the patients I've seen playing out a few times. But I honestly can't see something as public and well-funded having the same fate. "Elon Musk losing interest" isn't really something I see likely as he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do. He loves the tech and the ideals, and Neuralink is past the point of e…

Ah yes he just became a billionnaire because he isn't money motivated and just loves tech. If only we all loved tech as much as Elon and money as little as Elon does.

Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#339

Post by vasco »

Veserv wrote: post #99
NitpickLawyer wrote: post #2

There is a great podcast with the entire team + Noland on yt. It is ~ 8h long, but IMO it's worth the time. You get to hear things from the perspective of the chief brain surgeon, hardware team, software team, and of course Noland himself. I really recommend it, to get a better understanding of what's possible, what they had to do to get there, and how impactful this kind of research is for people with terrible condi…

Still the same depraved head of neurosurgery, Dr. Matthew MacDougall, who said: "If tomorrow laws were changed and the FDA said okay you can do some of this early experimentation in willing human participants that would be a very interesting option I think there would be a lot of people that would step up." [1] That is basically the textbook definition of unethical medical practice, so unquestionably far over the lin…

If it were up to you I bet we couldn't ride motorcycles or jump out of airplanes either.

Re: Neuralink 'Participant 1' says his life has changed

#340

Post by Xorakios »

bandrami wrote: post #272
ignoramous wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Ultimately, to the body an implant is simply a foreign object. I get your point but, there's a lot of foreign objects going in by the way of various pores and openings. Biological beings are surprisingly resilient & fragile at the same time.

Those openings lead to spaces that are not "inside" the body, though. For deuterostomes like humans, the digestive tract is still "outside" in a lot of important ways.

Well good golly miss molly, that's a word I had never heard of. Thanks!
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