331–340 of 737 posts
GPT-5 finally on the horizon!
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>> Why is that less exciting? A machine competing in an unconstrained natural language difficult math contest and coming out on top by any means is breath taking science fiction a few years ago - now it’s not exciting? Half the internet is convinced that LLMs are a big data cheating machine and if they're right then, yes, boldly cheating where nobody has cheated before is not that exciting.
I don't get it, how do you "big data cheat" an AI into solving previously unencountered problems? Wouldn't that just be engineering?
Some previous predictions: In 2021 Paul Christiano wrote he would update from 30% to "50% chance of hard takeoff" if we saw an IMO gold by 2025. He thought there was an 8% chance of this happening. Eliezer Yudkowsky said "at least 16%". Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challe...
Off topic, but am I the only one getting triggered every time I see a rationalist quantify their prediction of the future with single digit accuracy? It's like their magic way of trying to get everyone to forget that they reached their conclusion in completely hand-wavy way, just like every other human being. But instead of saying "low confidence" or "high confidence" like the rest of us normies, they will tell you t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score
also:
Google also joined IMO, and got gold prize. https://x.com/natolambert/status/1946569475396120653 OAI announced early, probably we will hear announcement from Google soon.
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Most evidence you have about the world is claims from other people, not direct experiment. There seems to be a thought-terminating cliche here on HN, dismissing any claim from employees of large tech companies. Unlike seemingly most here on HN, I judge people's trustworthiness individually and not solely by the organization they belong to. Noam Brown is a well known researcher in the field and I see no reason to doub…
> dismissing any claim from employees of large tech companies Me: I have a way to turn lead into gold. You: Show me!!! Me: NO (and then spends the rest of my life in poverty). Cold Fusion (physics not the programing language) is the best example of why you "Show your work". This is the Valley we're talking about. It's the thudnderdome of technology and companies. If you have a meaningful breakthrough you don't talk a…
When my wife tells me there's a pie in the oven and it's smelling particularly good, I don't demand evidence or disbelieve the existence of the pie. And I start to believe that it'll probably be a particularly good pie.
This is from OpenAI. Here they've not been so great with public communications in the past, and they have a big incentive in a crowded marketplace to exaggerate claims. On the other hand, it seems like a dumb thing to say unless they're really going to deliver that soon.
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You degraded this thread badly by posting so many comments like this.
I am neither an optimist nor a pessimist for AI. I would likely be called both by the opposite parties. But the fact that AI / LLM is still rapidly improving is impressive in itself and worth celebrating for. Is it perfect, AGI, ASI? No. Is it useless? Absolutely not. I am just happy the prize is so big for AI that there are enough money involve to push for all the hardware advancement. Foundry, Packaging, Interconne…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> Why is that less exciting? A machine competing in an unconstrained natural language difficult math contest and coming out on top by any means is breath taking science fiction a few years ago - now it’s not exciting? Half the internet is convinced that LLMs are a big data cheating machine and if they're right then, yes, boldly cheating where nobody has cheated before is not that exciting.
I don't get it, how do you "big data cheat" an AI into solving previously unencountered problems? Wouldn't that just be engineering?