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John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

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Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#331
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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He is casually dismissing an entire major branch of RL research. Nothing to do with Carmack or any "cult" figure.

This is not a solved problem.

https://huggingface.co/learn/deep-rl-course/en/unitbonus3/of...

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#332
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although Carmack is the quintessential not-a-brogrammer.

I've never actually seen a brogrammer though, I've seen people who program only because they get money for it, I thought for a while those where it, but I'm not sure if I think they qualify either.

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Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He points that out in his notes and says DeepMind needed specialized training and/or 200M frames of training just to kinda play one game.

What deepmind accomplished with suicidal Mario was so much more than you probably ever will know from outside the company.

This is a rather useless comment without elaborating.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#334
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it could very well exceed our capabilities beyond our wildest imaginations. Because we evolved to get where we are, humans have all sorts of messy behaviours that aren't really compatible with a utopian society. Theft, violence, crime, greed - it's all completely unnecessary and yet most of us can't bring ourselves to solve these problems. And plenty are happy to live apathetically while billionaires become t…

I still don’t see an issue of billionaires becoming trillionaires and being able to buy hyper luxury goods. Good for them and good for the people selling and manufacturing those goods. Meanwhile poverty is in all time lows and there’s a growing middle class at global level. Our middle class life conditions nowadays have a level of comfort that would get Kings from some centuries ago jealous.

If buying hyper luxury goods was the only thing that this wealth was good for, I'd agree.

But it's not: many of those billionaires are using their wealth to subvert democracy. They are quite literally enemies of the state.

The only lasting defense is to prevent this level of individual wealth accumulation.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the notes: "A reality check for people that think full embodied AGI is right around the corner is to ask your dancing humanoid robot to pick up a joystick and learn how to play an obscure video game."

This debate is exhausting because there's no coherent definition of AGI that people agree on. I made a google form question for collecting AGI definitions cause I don't see anyone else doing it and I find it infinitely frustrating the range of definitions for this concept: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScDF5_CMSjHZDDexHkc... My concern is that people never get focused enough to care to define it - seems li…

In a way it sort of doesn't matter. If all we ever wind up with is unbelievably fancy chatbots, marketing teams will eventually draw their line in the sand and call it AGI.

There comes a theoretical point at which a definition is no longer relevant because it's obvious to everyone on an intuitive level. An easy lower bound for where this threshold might sit would be "when it can start and win wars unassisted under its own volition". Since, at that point no one on earth would have a need to debate it. It would simply be respected and understood for what it is without needing to define it.

Until such an obvious threshold is crossed, it will be whatever executives, product managers, and marketing teams say it is.

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is not enough. Seriously, imagine if they had an AGI in their ChatGPT interface. It’s not enough to do anything truly meaningful. It’s like a genius in the woods somewhere. For AGI to have an impact it needs to be everywhere.

Robotics to navigate the physical world seems more impactful than some pin/glasses product to provide a passive audio/visual interface to the chatbot doesn't seem so earth shattering either though. What would you do with a 10x or 100x smarter Siri/Alexa? I still don't see my life changing. Give me a robot that can legitimately do household errands like the dishes, laundry, etc.. now we are talking.

and build cities ...

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give an example how it would be transformative compared to specialized AI?

Because it could very well exceed our capabilities beyond our wildest imaginations. Because we evolved to get where we are, humans have all sorts of messy behaviours that aren't really compatible with a utopian society. Theft, violence, crime, greed - it's all completely unnecessary and yet most of us can't bring ourselves to solve these problems. And plenty are happy to live apathetically while billionaires become t…

> humans have all sorts of messy behaviours that aren't really compatible with a utopian society. Theft, violence, crime, greed - it's all completely unnecessary and yet most of us can't bring ourselves to solve these problems.

Why would you think or claim those behaviors are unnecessary?

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Robotics to navigate the physical world seems more impactful than some pin/glasses product to provide a passive audio/visual interface to the chatbot doesn't seem so earth shattering either though. What would you do with a 10x or 100x smarter Siri/Alexa? I still don't see my life changing. Give me a robot that can legitimately do household errands like the dishes, laundry, etc.. now we are talking.

and build cities ...

First we need the agi government to do zoning & permitting reform

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give an example how it would be transformative compared to specialized AI?

Because it could very well exceed our capabilities beyond our wildest imaginations. Because we evolved to get where we are, humans have all sorts of messy behaviours that aren't really compatible with a utopian society. Theft, violence, crime, greed - it's all completely unnecessary and yet most of us can't bring ourselves to solve these problems. And plenty are happy to live apathetically while billionaires become t…

  > They will force us all to get along, to ensure that we treat each other fairly.
so, a dictatorship?

Re: John Carmack talk at Upper Bound 2025

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This debate is exhausting because there's no coherent definition of AGI that people agree on. I made a google form question for collecting AGI definitions cause I don't see anyone else doing it and I find it infinitely frustrating the range of definitions for this concept: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScDF5_CMSjHZDDexHkc... My concern is that people never get focused enough to care to define it - seems li…

The Wikipedia article on AGI explains it well enough. Researchers at Google have proposed a classification scheme with multiple levels of AGI. There are different opinions in the research community. https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.02462

My whole point was to demonstrate that despite years of definition suggestions the term has never found broad agreement

Now that the term is in the general lexicon (which is crazy to me as an old guy doing this a long time) it’s morphing into something new

Like any good scientist i want to sample the population

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