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America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

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Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#331

Post by [deleted] »

feoren wrote: post #171
markus_zhang wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UBI is probably going to happen I think. But I don't think it's going to achieve much. Yes it's going to give common people some foothold, but with automation and AI I really doubt we need that many jobs, and unemployment rate is going to be high anyway. The elites are going to throw UBI as a bone and then they can do whatever they want. And that's it -- A cyberpunk future where elites can pretty much ignore the comm…

I too worry about a future where the rich no longer have any need for the poor. I think the scenario where the rich end up just giving the poor a bit of money each month is an extremely optimistic one. Much more realistic is a slow genocide, where the poor simply die en masse in the streets due to having no homes, food, and healthcare, while such homelessness becomes both increasingly more unavoidable and more illega…

[deleted]

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#332

Post by Delomomonl »

Ai and robotics will push us into a golden area for x years until they become so good that we better have an answer to the implications of full automation of everything.

Also the laber shortage is pushing this transition even faster in potential traditional/ slow areas.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#333

Post by dluan »

linkregister wrote: post #237
regularization wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> This occurred to me. April 2001, US Navy plane crashes into Chinese J8 jet, kills pilot, lands on Hainan Island without authorization An interesting interpretation of events. Let's continue. "Then the air crew donates their airframe & technology to the Chinese Communist Party. And when they return they come up with a lie that they had been buzzed several times by the J8 pilot until the crash. Also they faked distre…

Maybe you don't remember that only 2 years earlier the US CIA "mistakenly" bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese government workers and nearly sparking war, with Bill Clinton personally calling to apologize.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#334

Post by mercutio2 »

chrisco255 wrote: post #260
mercutio2 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Telling a sovereign nation, and the US’s closest ally, it should become the 51st US state isn’t making war, but it’s way more than imposing tariffs in contravention of treaties this president signed in his last term.

[flagged]

What definition of treaty are you using that the USMCA is not a treaty?

The difference is negligible in international use, but in the US it means “agreement that was ratified by the Senate”.

Are you claiming the USMCA was not, in fact, ratified by the Senate?

Disputing under the terms of a treaty is quite different than unilaterally breaking a treaty.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#335

Post by greenie_beans »

markus_zhang wrote: post #10
tartuffe78 wrote: post #2

Who will buy the phones when no one is paid to produce them? The cars? The food and the clothes? Wealth keeps concentrating upward, great leaps in efficiency and throughput, but I can't see how it's a sustainable model for continued consumption growth year after year.

UBI is probably going to happen I think. But I don't think it's going to achieve much. Yes it's going to give common people some foothold, but with automation and AI I really doubt we need that many jobs, and unemployment rate is going to be high anyway. The elites are going to throw UBI as a bone and then they can do whatever they want. And that's it -- A cyberpunk future where elites can pretty much ignore the comm…

i'm very far left ideologically and i think UBI in the current political economy is a bad idea because it's just gonna go to rent etc. all the capitalists will raise their prices.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#336

Post by greenie_beans »

llamaimperative wrote: post #115
jimbokun wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Applying it to rent is arbitrary. The general point is that it is inflationary for all goods and services. That is assuming UBI is funded through government borrowing as we saw with COVID stimulus. If funded through new taxes the inflationary impact should be much less. (I don’t have enough economic training to determine how much less.)

Well it's not quite arbitrary because it will induce supply in other goods and services. Rent in high COL areas is driven primarily by land rent (i.e. cost of land, regardless of whether that land is actually rented to the building on top of it or not), which has zero supply elasticity. And then the other portion of rent (the building itself) is also pretty darn supply-inelastic as well, though not entirely.

i live in a high COL area and rent is not high because of land costs. there are several empty lots that people want to build on but the discretionary review process for entitlements make it too easy to wreck the permit process (everybody knows this in the entire world; this is the YIMBY line which has truth to it). another factor is the cost per bedroom to build is very high, due to the cost of building in the market (labor, cost of goods, etc). so it's actually everything to do with the building/entitlements and nothing to do with land cost. at least where i live right now. proof: the college cancelled a massive housing project because it was gonna be too expensive per bedroom. this wasn't because of land costs but building costs.

aside, while i'm at it, let's take another swipe at free market and housing: the YIMBY line has truth about regulations preventing building, but if you look at build starts for like the 10 years after the 2008 crisis, you'll see a lack of buildings that happened during that time. they had record housing starts leading up to the crisis, and you know what also existed then? the same regulatory regime that we are now tearing down to help us build what we need. but after the crisis, the builders stopped building because they were fearful about the market. this suggests to me that "regulations prevent building, just let the free market take care of it," is too simplistic and ignores very real data. the market took care of it by not building.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#337

Post by llamaimperative »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #326
tcfunk wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always disagree with this moving freely argument. Certainly some live where they do specifically for work, but some are also there to be close to family. They will not be interested in relocating to save a buck.

In other words, the real estate market is sticky. There are large costs to moving, so consumers put up with price increases more readily than they do in other markets. But there's a big gulf between "sticky" and "laws of supply and demand don't apply". People on UBI will be much more price sensitive than those supplementing with wage income since the UBI dependent will be time rich and money poor. Landlords will have…

There's a big gulf between "eventually all marginal productivity increases are eaten by rising land rent" and "laws of supply and demand don't apply."

You have no reason to believe people with new marginal income from UBI would move to lower COL areas. We have strong reason to believe they'd spend that money to move toward high COL areas. Evidence for this is the fact that people, when they have money, choose to live in high COL areas.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#338

Post by llamaimperative »

greenie_beans wrote: post #336
llamaimperative wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it's not quite arbitrary because it will induce supply in other goods and services. Rent in high COL areas is driven primarily by land rent (i.e. cost of land, regardless of whether that land is actually rented to the building on top of it or not), which has zero supply elasticity. And then the other portion of rent (the building itself) is also pretty darn supply-inelastic as well, though not entirely.

i live in a high COL area and rent is not high because of land costs. there are several empty lots that people want to build on but the discretionary review process for entitlements make it too easy to wreck the permit process (everybody knows this in the entire world; this is the YIMBY line which has truth to it). another factor is the cost per bedroom to build is very high, due to the cost of building in the market…

What location is this?

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#339

Post by dluan »

downrightmike wrote: post #268
Animats wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. China's five year plans are translated into English and are quite readable. Here's the 14th Five Year Plan, 2021-2025.[1] Wikipedia has a summary.[2] This is China's business plan. The top level is expanded into more detailed plans at lower levels. For example, here's the plan for Fujian province.[3] Further down, here's the transition plan for IPv6.[4] You can go back and read previous five-year plans. The succ…

Oh, cool, someone is going to use ipv6

Chinese people have an irrational amount of love for international standards.

Re: America Is Missing The New Labor Economy – Robotics Part 1

#340

Post by Hikikomori »

pfdietz wrote: post #327
xethos wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump is discussing annexation of my country. Maybe you're thinking of Imperialism 1.0?

I was thinking of talk of pulling out of NATO.

What I talked about was not NATO actions though.
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