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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#331

Post by moffkalast »

michaelt wrote: post #196
moffkalast wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If all those e-scooter rental startups can have remote GPS tracking and theft alarms then it really shouldn't take much to implement that into personal ones too. I mean people leave those things absolutely everywhere and they never get rightfully stolen. A 4G modem would probably be overkill, but one might be able to do it for free with lorawan. Or alternatively a big label saying "this bike is GPS tracked" with abso…

Rental bikes use heavy, incompatible components so it’s pointless to steal them for resale, or to strip for parts. And they have a tracker. My bike, on the other hand? A thief could just find and remove the tracker - or strip the bike for parts.

Time to start using bikes made out of heavy incompatible parts and welding on the tracker then?

But yes I do partially agree that it probably wouldn't help much, since it's more about the thieves not wanting to mess with a company with funding and a legal department behind it vs. some random bloke who they can rob with impunity. Private bike security firms might be an answer to the issue, you pay a monthly subscription, they put their own trackers on your bike, employ licensed people who retrieve stolen ones at gunpoint and guarantee protection up to some total cost. Probably not cost effective though I guess, given that the police themselves have given up.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#332

Post by Ajedi32 »

mc32 wrote: post #226
elric wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I've seen, scooters and electric bikes aren't competition for cars, but for public transport.

Also light transport works great for for single people and dinks. Once people have kids they likely would want a car. By that time you don’t want to do daily shopping and you don’t want to carry four bags of groceries on a bus, plus on average a couple of times a month you need to transport bulkier items -yes you could rent a car for that each time, but people like ad hoc convenience, they don’t like planning things…

Also an e-bike in the snow or pouring rain is miserable if it even works at all. There are some situations where they're great, but cars are just a lot more flexible. One vehicle that does everything.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#333

Post by teruakohatu »

rsynnott wrote: post #138
teruakohatu wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The question is will these low cost EVs last 250,000km? I don't think the batteries will. > Why do you think the batteries won’t? I was commenting on low-cost EV. I don't know but I think its likely that given the following (maybe incorrect) assumption: 1. Cheap EVs use cheaper lower-quality cells to keep costs down. 2. Cheap EVs use battery tech that maximises range and performance at the expense of longevity, whi…

Yeah, that’s a bad assumption. Cheap EVs tend to use chemistries with a poor energy to weight ratio, but those chemistries are relatively long lasting (in particular see LFP). I’d bet on a cheap electric car made today lasting longer than a high end one 5 years ago for this reason. Some brands (in particular Tesla has done this) even use LFP in low-end versions of a single model, and NMC in high end.

> Yeah, that’s a bad assumption. Cheap EVs tend to use chemistries with a poor energy to weight ratio, but those chemistries are relatively long lasting (in particular see LFP). I’d bet on a cheap electric car made today lasting longer than a high end one 5 years ago for this reason.

Interesting. I may indeed be wrong!

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#334

Post by marssaxman »

potato3732842 wrote: post #190
aqme28 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not everyone drives. If population growth is mostly in places where people bike/ebike/walk/train, then your assumption doesn’t hold.

When those people get richer they'll want to drive. We see this all over the developing world. The growth might be less than the growth in mass transit but as populations become richer they become more mobile so the absolute demand will likely increase.

When I got richer, that meant I could afford to move somewhere I wouldn't have to drive all the time. Life is more pleasant here in the "15-minute city".

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#335

Post by ehnto »

tonyhart7 wrote: post #192
ehnto wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities shouldn't have to mandate carparks, let alone charging in them. Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that. Pre-empting, obviously many places still require cars, but we shouldn't codify cars into the building code. It makes everything that bit more expensive, and it's a waste of valuable city real estate. At the moment the cost per square meter in Melbourne and my city means a singl…

"Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that." Yeah its sounds great until you need mass transport system to support this idea which means only mega cities can benefit the most when tier 2 and tier 3 cities is having a hard time investment see: japan

If you want a house with a carpark you can build it, or find that in a rental.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#336

Post by ehnto »

amrocha wrote: post #272
ghaff wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tokyo has a great subway system (for the most part--there are locations that aren't that well served) and there's good train service between many moderate-sized cities in Japan. But my experience is that, once you get to a city outside of Tokyo, the public transportation options aren't great.

I’ve personally never felt like I needed a car in fukuoka, osaka, or kyoto. What places did you have a bad experience at?

You don't need a car, but you won't be able to reach everything outside the cities. It's fine since everything you need is in the cities, and you would never run out of stuff to see, do, survive with. So "need" is a strong word, but certainly if you explore further out you will want a car.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#337

Post by ehnto »

HPsquared wrote: post #207
ehnto wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities shouldn't have to mandate carparks, let alone charging in them. Having no car at all should be viable and we should build toward that. Pre-empting, obviously many places still require cars, but we shouldn't codify cars into the building code. It makes everything that bit more expensive, and it's a waste of valuable city real estate. At the moment the cost per square meter in Melbourne and my city means a singl…

Electric self-driving taxis are going to be big in the medium-term. Or some other personal transportation method. Static routes and stations are not really up to the job. (Edit: not that these necessarily need car parks, but they'll need to wait somewhere when they're not carrying passengers)

> Static routes and stations are not really up to the job.

This is only because of the suburban sprawl we built not being compatible, but I agree it is a problem to solve one way or another.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#338

Post by bfrog »

myroon5 wrote: post #39
xnx wrote: post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

Yup, order of magnitude more electric micromobility vehicles than electric cars: https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-280-million-electric-...

As it should be, cheap, park anywhere, and fast enough.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#339

Post by amrocha »

ehnto wrote: post #336
amrocha wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve personally never felt like I needed a car in fukuoka, osaka, or kyoto. What places did you have a bad experience at?

You don't need a car, but you won't be able to reach everything outside the cities. It's fine since everything you need is in the cities, and you would never run out of stuff to see, do, survive with. So "need" is a strong word, but certainly if you explore further out you will want a car.

The comment was about needing a car in the cities, so that’s not really relevant

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#340

Post by Toutouxc »

e40 wrote: post #306
Toutouxc wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But.. it wasn't the scooter's fault, was it?

Yes, it was. They are quite unstable at the speeds they allow.

What do you mean by “unstable”? All single-track vehicles are inherently unstable and use that for steering.
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