Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd be very interested in an example of someone who said "it's just autocomplete" and also explicitly brought up the risk of something like alignment faking, before 2024. I can think of examples of people who've been talking about this kind of thing for years, but they're all people who have no trouble with applying the adjective "intelligent" to models.
I have been reading arguments about "things like alignment faking" for years, while simultaneously holding that "it's just autocomplete". The alignment-faking arguments are still terrifying to the extent that they're plausible. In the hypothetical where I'm wrong about it being "just autocomplete" (and fundamentally, inescapably so), the risk is far greater than can be justified by the potential benefits. But that's…
I'm sorry, but this is a crazy reason to believe something is false. Things are either true or they aren't, and if the world would be nicer to live in if thing X was false does not actually bear on whether thing X is false or not.