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Bitcoin is over $100k

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Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#331

Post by tim333 »

prng2021 wrote: post #330
tim333 wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>no reason whatsoever why it couldn’t hit $1M, $1B, or go back to $1 Not entirely true. The value is driven by number of people invested x average amount they have invested. Most of the historic increase has been as the number of people involved increased. Currently that's probably in the 100 - 200 million people range. It could 10x from here to $1M per bitcoin but is unlikely to go to $1B or $1.

What do you think the number of people and average amount they have invested is based on? I’m saying it’s based purely on emotion and speculation. It could be a sunny day so people feel good and put more money into Bitcoin. That’s quite different from egg prices skyrocketing after chickens get bird flu or stock price skyrocketing after an amazing earnings report or the dollar skyrocketing because of a fast growing ec…

It's changed in fairly predictable ways - the number of people grows fairly stably and the price goes in roughly four year waves, up something like 5x or more then down 85%. So there's emotion and speculation but in a kind of consistent way in practice.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#332

Post by fixprix »

benchmarkist wrote: post #321
tasuki wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well, with toilet paper I can wipe my ass. Even a dollar bill will do the trick Wait, are you saying dollars are good because you can wipe with them ? I think you're in full agreement with the person you're replying to!

My point is that Bitcoin is no different from fiat. In fact, it can't be anything but fiat because it has no physical representation.

Fiat can be minted easily. Bitcoin cannot any faster than the rate that it is mined. Massive difference. And the key reason why the dollar continually depreciates.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#333

Post by sergiogdr »

dmarcos wrote: post #155
throwaway657656 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And companies have intrinsic value. They don't just pointlessly consume resources.

Nothing has intrinsic value. Subjective theory of value. Some find BTC valuable as a store of value hence it has value.

Does this apply to ‘things’ such as life, air, water?

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#334

Post by dmarcos »

sergiogdr wrote: post #333
dmarcos wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing has intrinsic value. Subjective theory of value. Some find BTC valuable as a store of value hence it has value.

Does this apply to ‘things’ such as life, air, water?

Definitely. Value of life is estimated and changes all the time across cultures, in wars, life insurances, technological tradeoffs like cars that kill people but we accept the cost…

There’s no universal, intrinsic value to life. It’s us that give it value.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#335

Post by mhartl »

nadermx wrote: post #62
fixprix wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is a store of value. Nothing more or less. DAOs and NFTs were just distractions trying to ride the wave. The fundamentals remain strong. It really hasn't changed much in 15 years. The Hacker News comments certainly haven't either. Salty as ever.

By definition store of value means "its ability to purchase other assets in the future without rapidly losing its purchasing power" yet bitcoin has in instances halved it's value. So, no not a store of value.

It’s true that, due to its volatility, Bitcoin is currently not a good store of value, at least in the short term. There’s an underlying truth, though, which is that Bitcoin is a potential store of value. In particular, it has all the necessary qualities of a monetary good, among them durability, divisibility, portability, verifiability, and above all scarcity.

Buying Bitcoin right now involves speculating that others will also see this potential, which is why it’s accurate to describe it for the moment as a speculative asset. The reason buying Bitcoin is a smart bet is that its monetary properties are so good that it has the potential to store a significant percentage of the world’s savings. Once that happens, its volatility will be much lower, so it will be a good store of value. And of course its purchasing power in current U.S. dollars will be much, much higher, which is why it’s a good idea to buy some now.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#336

Post by mlrtime »

cesarb wrote: post #300
robjan wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A transaction is zero sum, the market is net positive. For the market to be zero sum, the market cap would have to be constant. If I buy something from someone for $1 then sell it to you for $2, I gained a dollar and you own a share that's worth $2.

> If I buy something from someone for $1 then sell it to you for $2, I gained a dollar and you own a share that's worth $2. It's easy to see that this is nonsense: I could buy a widget from someone for $1, then turn around and sell it to my brother for $10000, does that really mean the widget is now magically worth $10000, and we doubled our collective holdings? No, what actually happened is that we together still ha…

You are 100% wrong, the market is not zero sum. A quick google search will educate you here.

Derivatives like options can be zero sum, options expire worthless.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#337

Post by kamaal »

thunky wrote: post #323
kamaal wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>Congrats to the people who held through thick and thin, I speculate (my own opinion) that we will likely not see 80% drawdowns anymore due to all the institutional money that flew in, just “standard” 40-50% dips. Fantastic to witness, an asset class out of thin air. There was some person who invested $30 everyday in BTC since 2017, and has $1 million right now. The tweet had gone viral on Twitter. BTC bull/bear cyc…

> There was some person who invested "Invested" is a generous way to put it. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/09/compare-inve...

My general point is about the concept of DCA. Not BTC.

Im sure you can invest $30/day in Index funds too. Given its basically 2 hours of minimum wage/day.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#338

Post by benchmarkist »

fixprix wrote: post #332
benchmarkist wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that Bitcoin is no different from fiat. In fact, it can't be anything but fiat because it has no physical representation.

Fiat can be minted easily. Bitcoin cannot any faster than the rate that it is mined. Massive difference. And the key reason why the dollar continually depreciates.

Fiat means faith and that's all you have with bitcoin, faith in the algorithms that make the ledger very hard to mutate without spending the required "effort" to "mint" the entries on the ledger. You can believe whatever you want but as I said previously you're better off convincing people to sell you services for your bitcoins instead of arguing with random strangers on the internet about cryptographic hashing functions.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#339

Post by lifty »

tim333 wrote: post #307
lifty wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is split into two kids of people: the ones that have managed to take advantage of the massive financialization of the world, and the ones who haven’t.

The world was even more divided in the past. When I went to China in 1983 the GDP per capita per year was $285. Even adjusted for inflation they were poor. No more really. Trade and the internet have leveled things up.

My comment sounds overly cynical but I fully agree with you, there’s been so much progress in getting people out of poverty world wide. Yes there’s a big gap in wealth but it’s probably the smallest it has ever been on average, and way more people have their basic needs met than ever before.

Re: Bitcoin is over $100k

#340

Post by thunky »

kamaal wrote: post #337
thunky wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There was some person who invested "Invested" is a generous way to put it. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/09/compare-inve...

My general point is about the concept of DCA. Not BTC. Im sure you can invest $30/day in Index funds too. Given its basically 2 hours of minimum wage/day.

Ok, but my point is that DCA is normally it's used to fund investments, not gamble. For example, buying $30/day of lottery tickets is not DCA.
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