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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

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Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#331

Post by ValentinA23 »

gleenn wrote: post #324
ValentinA23 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 1 in 36 million chance for three breaks in one day. https://mathb.in/80217

That's assuming independence. I'm not ruling out sabotage but the world is often not fully independent. A storm or an anchor both may affect multiple cables if they're in generally the same area which would definitely make the probability far more likely than those stated. (edit typo)

Indeed !

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/lithuania-sweden-...

>Lithuania-Sweden subsea cable cut, was 10m from severed Finnish-German cable

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#332

Post by chii »

petre wrote: post #102
regnull wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is to project strength and hit them where they don't expect. You are dealing with a thug, not a cost/benefit accountant, as Obama seemed to mistakenly believe. As long as they do things and we respond, nothing good will happen. They have already calculated the response and found it acceptable. Instead of this, go to the mattresses. Oh, your bridge has suddenly exploded? Shame.

"We" already screwed their pipeline, what's left? Provide Ukraine with the means to blow up the Kerch bridge maybe? They're the ones that could legitimately do that sort of escalation.

> "We" already screwed their pipeline

unfortunately, "we" didnt have to pay a sacrifice to the economy for it, because germany paid it.

The US is too afraid of nukes, and won't escalate. The russians rightly predicted this.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#333

Post by gmerc »

gorbachev wrote: post #301
exceptione wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bear metaphore is indeed nonsense. Russia is not a bear, you are dealing with a bunch of state level criminals. The state of Russia is essentially better understood as a criminal gang masquerading as a country. Those stealing, money laundering, killing, trafficking an warring circles of oligarchs are heavily rooted in Intelligence Services, inside and abroad. Some of those oligarchs even have private militaries.…

The "academic" term for Russia's style of governing is a kleptocracy. Your description is 100% accurate.

Americans are about to get intimately familiar with this mode of governments anyway

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#334

Post by baybal2 »

azeirah wrote: post #208
rdtsc wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia isn't a fucking bear, it's a drunk wasteland with plenty natural resources, but with fucked up leadership. The Russian oligarchy is desperate, and it's showing. It doesn't matter. It attacked one of the largest countries in Europe, captured territory and is still holding it and making progress. Right under EU's nose. It can brutally throw men in the meat grinder and doesn't worry too much about it. Calling P…

> The weakness is not accidental, they've been weaving their agents and shaping public opinion. Now they are engaged in asymmetrical warfare. Germany has been doing deals with the Russians buying gas and oil from them. Merkel laughed at the US for being worried about it: Yep.. When Merkel was German chancellor, I thought she was amazing. Not a big fan anymore :( > It doesn't matter. It attacked one of the largest cou…

[dead]

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#335

Post by threeseed »

keskival wrote: post #256

And also the cable between Lithuania and Sweden: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/18/telecoms-cable...

And also Ireland escorted a Russian spy ship away from their cables:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-sh...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#336

Post by threeseed »

ValentinA23 wrote: post #321
staplung wrote: post #63

It's worth mentioning that cable breakages happen quite often; globally about 200 times per year [1] and the article itself mentions that just last year, two other cables and a gas pipeline were taken out by an anchor. The Gulf of Finland is evidently quite shallow. From what I understand, cable repair ships are likely to use ROVs for parts of repair jobs but only when the water is shallow so hopefully they can figur…

A 1 in 36 million chance for three breaks in one day. https://mathb.in/80217

And what about adding in the chances of a Russian spy ship seen relatively near by only a few days earlier:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-sh...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#337

Post by IncreasePosts »

HumblyTossed wrote: post #328
regnull wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution is to project strength and hit them where they don't expect. You are dealing with a thug, not a cost/benefit accountant, as Obama seemed to mistakenly believe. As long as they do things and we respond, nothing good will happen. They have already calculated the response and found it acceptable. Instead of this, go to the mattresses. Oh, your bridge has suddenly exploded? Shame.

"We" won't respond because "we" just elected a Russian asset and he is going to install more in his cabinet.

It's already been settled that the trump dossier from 2016 was a work of fiction.

Why did Putin take crimea under Obama's watch, parts of Ukraine under Biden's watch, but then not make any huge moves like those while his "asset" was in the white house?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#339

Post by csomar »

tptacek wrote: post #137
severino wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, hold your horses. Biden also threatened to blow up the Nord-Stream 2 pipeline, yet after the sabotage, everybody said "it was Russia". Now about this incident, to be consistent, I'm inclined to think it was the Americans.

I believe at this point we have a pretty good guess as to who sabotaged the pipeline, and it wasn't the US.

No we do not. Saying it with "confidence" and "authority" doesn't make true either.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#340

Post by rdtsc »

tmnvix wrote: post #293
rdtsc wrote: post #82

> "it’s obvious this wasn’t an accidental anchor drop.” If it's "he who shall not be named", gotta admit, that's a clever strategy: ramp up sabotage and see how NATO/EU will feel about their "red lines", and how well does that article 5 really work in practice. Is it worth more than the paper it's printed on? Let's find out! People have been laughing at the West crossing multiple Russian "red lines" and the Russians…

Ask yourself, when was the last time a nation officially declared war? It doesn't happen anymore for legal reasons. NATO will 100% not be the first to declare war despite even very serious provocations. Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book and declare a 'special' or 'limited' operation though...

> NATO will 100% not be the first to declare war despite even very serious provocations.

But if it doesn't declare war, it now looks weak. That article 5 isn't worth very much all of the sudden. At the same time it's stupid to start WW3 over a village in the Baltics, a town in Romania, a cut cable or a few blown up warehouses. The Russians took the same "red line" idea and are playing it against the NATO and the EU. I can't interpret as any other way. And on one level, it sort of works.

> Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book and declare a 'special' or 'limited' operation though...

I'd like to believe. But remembering how much hand wringing was needed to send a few tanks to Ukraine and some F-16. Somehow, I doubt they'll be able to do anything as bold as a "special" military operation against Russia. Heck, they can't even provide air defense for Ukraine's skies. (As in use NATO's own defense systems to stop the Russians destroying apartment buildings). That's the point the Russians are providing. They are destroying NATO's reputation without even trying to too much, and I posit, so far it works.

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