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It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

theatlantic.com

331–340 of 599 posts

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#331

> At a high enough level of abstraction, Altman’s entire job is to keep us all fixated on an imagined AI future I think the job of a CEO is not to tell you the truth, and the truth is probably more often than not, the opposite. What if gpt5 is vaporware, and there’s no equivalent 3 to 4 leap to be realized with current deep learning architectures? What is OpenAI worth then?

Funnily I came across an interview from around 5 years ago where he straight up admitted that he had no clue how to generate a return on investment back then (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzcJlKg2Rc0&t=1920s ) "We have no current plans to make revenue." "We have no idea how we may one day generate revenue." "We have made a soft promise to investors that once we've built a general intelligence system, basically…

Well, I mean the actual answer is raise more money from investors. But it is better to leave things up to the imagination of the listener.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An LLM is not going to go skynet. It's not smart enough and can't take initiative. An AGI however could. Once it reaches IQs of more than say 500 it would become very hard to control it.

Power cord?

Here are two explanations of why cutting the power won't help you once you reach that state. In short, you have already lost.

[0]: No Physical Substrate, No Problem https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/04/07/no-physical-substrate-...

[1]: It Looks Like You’re Trying To Take Over The World https://gwern.net/fiction/clippy

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#333
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that continuously promising something is X weeks/months/years away is seen as optimism and belief, not blatant disregard for facts. I'm sure the defence is always, "but if we just had a bit more money, we would've got it done"

Elizabeth Holmes would like a referral to lawyer who could make that case.

There is a line. Forging documents is one of them.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#334
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi there! I've done a huge amount of political organizing in my life, for common good - influencing governments to build tens of billions of dollars worth of electric rail infrastructure. I'm also a big prepper. It's important to understand that stigmatizing prepping is very dangerous - specifically to those who reject it. Whether it's a gas main break, a forest fire, an earthquake, or a sci-fi story, encouraging peo…

I agree that prepping itself is completely fine, and people should be prepared for natural disasters, civil unrest, or whatever scenarios they’re most comfortable with. Building resilience is beneficial for both individuals and communities, and I can see how it plays an important role, especially in situations like the ones you mentioned in NC. My issue, though, is with someone like Sam Altman—a leader of an organiza…

Every tech CEO (and honestly almost every wealthy person) is doing the same thing. You're mistaking correlation for causation.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#335

To recap OpenAI's decisions over the past year: * They burned up the hype for GPT-5 on 4o and o1, which are great step changes but nothing the competition can't quickly replicate. * They dissolved the safety team. * They switched to for profit and are poised to give Altman equity. * All while hyping AGI more than ever. All of this suggests to me that Altman is in short-term exit preparation mode, not planning for AGI…

I see it differently. ChatGPT holds a unique position because it has the most important asset in tech: user attention. Building a brand and capturing a significant share of eyeballs is one of the hardest challenges for any company, startup or not. From a business standpoint, the discussion around GPT-5 or AGI seems secondary. What truly matters is the growing number of users paying for ChatGPT, with potential for monetization through ads or other services in the future.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#336
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not what happened to Theranos and Elisabeth Holmes

They made medical claims. That's a very bad idea if you aren't 100% sure

Forget that. Pasting logos of big-named companies on forged documents. I mean, seriously?

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#337
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“robotaxis are still almost here, just around the corner, as always” We have them in San Francisco now (and Los Angeles and Phoenix, and Austin soon.)

By "robotaxi" I think they meant loosely "personal self driving car," not an automated taxi service. Waymo's overstated[1] success has let self-driving advocates do an especially pernicious bit of goalpost-shifting. I have been a self-driving skeptic since 2010, but if you had told me in 2010 that in 10-15 years we have robotaxis that were closely overseen by remote operators who can fill in the gaps I would have tho…

> I have complained for years that Waymo's statisticians are comparing their cars to all human drivers when they should be comparing it to lawful human drivers whose vehicles are well-maintained. Tesla FSD proves that self-driving companies will respond to consumer demand for vehicles that speed and run red lights.

Really? Waymo's statisticians are the ones you are complaining about?

Tesla's statisticians have been lying for years, as has Musk when they cite "number of miles driven by FSD in the very small subset of conditions where it is available, and not turned off or unavailable because of where you are, the weather, or any other variable" versus "all drivers, all conditions, all locations, all times" to try to say FSD is safer.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#338
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are using "entropy" in a way I do not recognise. Whatever you mean, our brains prove it's possible to have a system that uses 20 watts to demonstrate human-level intelligence.

Whatever you mean, it took 13 billion years and the whole universe as far as we can tell to create the 20 watt human intelligence brain. And it doesn't take 20 watt of energy to maintain humans, it takes a whole ecosystem capable of sustaining a human population. And for us to operate at our current level of information processing it takes a whole planetary civilization. So no you haven't proved anything by saying th…

> Whatever you mean, it took 13 billion years and the whole universe as far as we can tell to create the 20 watt human intelligence brain.

It's grossly unreasonable to include the entire history of the universe given the Earth only formed about 4 billion years ago; and given that evolution wasn't even aiming for intelligence, even starting from our common ancestors being small rodents 65 million years ago is wildly overstating the effort required — even the evolution of primates is too far back without intentional selective breeding.

> You're positing a way to create human intelligence-like in a bottle, that's the same as speculating about the shape of a reality where we have FTL travel or teleportation or whatever else you fancy.

FTL may well well be impossible.

If you seriously think human intelligence is impossible, then you also think you don't exist: You, yourself, are a human like intelligence in a bottle. The bottle being your skull.

> This can give us great automation, but it won't solve physics, global warming, poverty or give us human intelligence in a chip.

AI has already been in widesprad use in physics for a while now, well before the current zeitgeist of LLMs.

There's a Y Combinator startup: "Charge Robotics is building robots that automate the most labor-intensive parts of solar construction".

Poverty has many causes, some of which are already being reduced or resolved by existing systems — and that's been the case since one of the ancestor companies of IBM, Tabulating Machine Company, was doing punched cards for the US census.

As for human intelligence on a chip? Well, (1) it's been quite a long time since humans were capable of designing the circuits manually, given the feature size is now at the level where quantum mechanics must be accounted for or you get surprise tunnelling between gates; and (2) one of the things being automated is feature segmentation and labelling of neural micrographs, i.e. literally brain scanning: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32619485/

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#339

A bit of a "dog bites man" story to note that a CEO of a hot company is hyping the future beyond reason. The real story of LLMs is revealed when you posit a magical technology that can print any car part for free. How would the car industry change if someone made a 3D printer that could make any part, including custom parts, with just electricity and air? It is a sea change to manufacturers and distributors, but ther…

This argument simply asserts that the LLMs (or their successor systems including scaffolding) will asymptote somewhere below human capabilities. It’s possible that this could happen but you need to propose a mechanism and metric for this argument to be taken seriously (and to avoid fooling yourself with moving goalposts). Under what grounds do you assert that the trend line will stop where you claim it will stop? Yes…

This. It’s far harder to think of reasons that limits will endure, in a world where innovation by inches has always produced improvements. Everyone brings out the current state and technology. Those are transient.

Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An LLM is not going to go skynet. It's not smart enough and can't take initiative. An AGI however could. Once it reaches IQs of more than say 500 it would become very hard to control it.

Power cord?

It is possible that some hypothetical super intelligent future AI will do something very clever like hide in a coding assistant and then distribute bits of itself around the planet in the source code of all of our stoplights and medical equipment.

However I think it’s more likely that it will LARP as “I’m an emotionally supportive beautiful AI lady, please download me to your phone, don’t take out the battery or I die!”

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