331–340 of 443 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> their ads business is getting raked over the coals in court only display ads business, which is a fraction of total ads revenue
It’s all wired together.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google is a digital advertising company. OpenAI hasn't even entered the ads business. In the absolute best case they can take over a large chunk of Google's search market share, sure, but that still doesn't make it anything similar to Google in terms of finances. How do they start making the queries profitable? What do they do when their competitors (Claude, Gemini, Llama, Mistral, Grok and several others) undercut t…
Ads are the most likely monetization path for openai. They want to capture as many users right now and can pull the trigger on ads whenever they want to start juicing users further. As long as the funding flows they can delay the ads. Google and Facebook were ad free initially for years only switching to it for monetization after building up critical user mass.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Were Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Tesla/Twitter(x), and a whole bunch of other gigantic (Chinese aswell) corporations trying to compete for the same market back then? I don't think Netflix and Uber had even a fraction of the competition that this field will have.
Netflix had all the paid TV channels worldwide, physical media sales and video-clubs as competitors. Uber had (still has) taxis. All of these were entrenched competitors with strong moats. It's easy with hindsight to underestimate the forces of Netflix's competitors, but consider that even today, the revenue of Pay TV worldwide is still bigger that the revenue of streaming platforms. And unlike streaming platforms, P…
Netflix discovered that content was the only moat available to them, after which it was effectively inevitable that they become a major production studio. I think Uber are still trying to figure out their most, but ironically regulation is probably part of it.
OpenAI also created a new product category, but the competition was very quick to move into that category and has very deep pockets. At some point, they clearly felt regulation might be a moat but it’s hard to see them landing that and winning.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You don't need science fiction to find the bull case for OpenAI. You just have to think it stands to be the "next" Google, which feels increasingly plausible. Google's current market capitalization is in the trillions.
But don't they need a moat? They're running against not only every major tech company with access to training data and also all the open source models. The models will have diminishing returns and other players seem better suited to providing value added features.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uae-backs-sam-altman-idea-095...
>The models will have diminishing returns
Wasn't that the going thinking before ChatGPT? And before AlexNet. Of course, we'll again be having some diminishing returns until the next leap.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google also offered a free product. OpenAI isn’t offering a free product but a subscription product plus metered API product amongst other. Their economics are structurally better than googles assuming they can keep growing their captured market share. Their outrageous costs are also opportunities to optimize costs, including massive amounts of R&D, etc. They don’t need to be profitable now - in fact as bezos demonst…
> OpenAI isn’t offering a free product I encourage you to visit https://chatgpt.com in incognito mode.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If they accomplish AGI first, they will be the world’s most valuable company, by far. If they fall short of AGI there are still many ways a more limited but still quite useful AI might make them worth far more than Meta. I don’t know how to handicap the odds of them doing either of these at all, but they would seem to have the best chance at it of anyone right now.
They accomplished AGI (artificial general intelligence) years ago. What do you think ChatGPT is? Alternatively, what are you imagining this “AGI” you speak of to be?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google is a digital advertising company. OpenAI hasn't even entered the ads business. In the absolute best case they can take over a large chunk of Google's search market share, sure, but that still doesn't make it anything similar to Google in terms of finances. How do they start making the queries profitable? What do they do when their competitors (Claude, Gemini, Llama, Mistral, Grok and several others) undercut t…
Google didn’t start as an ads company. It started as a blank text box that gave you a bunch of good answers from the internet in a list of links. Were there competitors that did the same thing? AltaVista? Yahoo? Did they undercut on cost? Google was free, I guess. But Google won because it maintained its quality, kept its interface clean and simple, and kept all the eyeballs as a result. Now Google is essentially the…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You don't need science fiction to find the bull case for OpenAI. You just have to think it stands to be the "next" Google, which feels increasingly plausible. Google's current market capitalization is in the trillions.
In 2023 Google had $307.39B in revenue and $24B in profit last quarter (suggesting ~100B in profit this year). Meanwhile OpenAI is losing money and making no where near these sums.