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Can solar costs keep shrinking?

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Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#331

Post by caymanjim »

ericd wrote: post #326
caymanjim wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do well in my tiny (20') RV for four months a year. It was a little cramped when I had a girlfriend with me, but still cozy. This is my third summer doing this. The first two summers, I wasn't working. This summer I'm working full-time remote (dev). It has its challenges. I plan to upgrade to a much larger 5th wheel trailer, likely in two years, with all the creature comforts you mention. Part of the reason solar i…

I'm curious, why do people use Ah for batteries, given that there's 3 different common server rack battery voltages (12, 24, 48)? Is 12 just assumed for RVing?

You make a good point. They really ought to be sold with Wh prominently displayed. I'm talking about 1200Ah@12V, although in reality there's a good chance that I'll do 600Ah@24V or 300Ah@48V. It's all the same 14.4kWh and will provide the exact same amount of usable power (ignoring some conversion efficiencies).

I'm using Ah because I'm used to talking to people about 12V battery systems, and Ah is the most prominent number when talking about battery capacity (when the voltage is already implied or agreed upon).

You're absolutely right though, and I should have been more clear about it.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#332

Post by skybrian »

pseudosavant wrote: post #152
countvonbalzac wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same - take lightbulbs for example. Thanks to LEDs, the amount of energy you need to generate X amount of light has reduced considerably, but we still have as much if not more lighting than ever. And it's not like our GDP is suffering due to a lack of sufficient lighting, at a certain point there's no gain to productivity gained from having another lightbulb. Same thing can be said about cars, CPUs etc.

It is a curious assertion for sure, but the next wave of AI will be throttled by a few factors: chip fab capacity, water supply to cool data centers, and electricity to power the chips/servers. Look at what is happening with xAI in Memphis where they are illegally running a dozen turbine generators to power their new AI data center since they can't get enough supply off the grid.

Costs are going down a lot due to algorithmic improvements. But maybe that just results in increased usage (Jevons paradox)? When there are conflicting trends, the future is pretty hard to predict.

Are any AI companies making money now? Losses can’t go on forever.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#333

Post by caymanjim »

m463 wrote: post #319
caymanjim wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do well in my tiny (20') RV for four months a year. It was a little cramped when I had a girlfriend with me, but still cozy. This is my third summer doing this. The first two summers, I wasn't working. This summer I'm working full-time remote (dev). It has its challenges. I plan to upgrade to a much larger 5th wheel trailer, likely in two years, with all the creature comforts you mention. Part of the reason solar i…

> you need more like 3200W > The market isn't going to bear the cost of massive solar installations as standard equipment. so doing some math... Larger class A RVs seem to cost $300k and up, and retirees seem to happily pay for all conveniences. For "normal" people, who haven't cashed in their retirement, the good thing is that they depreciate like a car instead of appreciating like a house. if you used all of a 40ft…

Alas, houses appreciate, cars depreciate, and RVs are just worthless. I exaggerate, but RV depreciation is absolutely nothing like auto depreciation. They lose 25% driving off the lot and another 25% per year (numbers out my ass, but correct order of magnitude).

The cost certainly would the most make sense on gigantic $300k class As, which also conveniently have space for lots of panels and lots of batteries. And indeed you see the most elaborate factory-installed solar setups on those beasts. That's a tiny market, though.

I think you're right about the future. It won't be long before thousands of watts of solar come standard on most RVs. In fact I don't think it will be all that long (decade or two maybe?) before the RV is clad in some kind of solar material. Like every square inch of the surface is generating solar.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#334

Post by caymanjim »

hattmall wrote: post #320
caymanjim wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've lived like that. I lived in the Mission in San Francisco with four of my closest friends (all from NJ) within walking distance. It was great being able to meet up for lunch or drinks or go out clubbing, it was always a pleasant surprise to run into them randomly on the street or in a park. I lived in midtown Manhattan and I loved being able to go out at 3am in the middle of the winter and find a fresh produce st…

Why are you looking at such cold places for the off grid living? Lots of remote forested areas in Georgia and Alabama, but I can also understand opposition to the heat. I would give a lot consideration to TN and NC mountains.

Politics and culture play an outsized part. If I could easily move to Canada I would. Barring that, I'm more inclined to stick to blue states than red states. Montana is a bit of an outlier in my list. Cannabis legality is a factor (Wisconsin is the oddball here), but increasingly less so as I expect that problem to go away within a few years nationwide (and certainly in Wisconsin). Climate is a big factor. I grew up in NJ, and while I've lived in tropical places and tend to spend my summer traveling to a lot of hot places, I don't want to live in a hot, humid southern state. There are parts of NC and TN that are more more mountainous and less oppressive, but it's still pretty sticky there.

I still plan to spend much of the year traveling in an RV even after I settle somewhere. I'd be happy to spend the winter holed up in a cabin with a wood stove though.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#335

Post by llsf »

rtkwe wrote: post #2

I'm having a hard time getting past the assumption in the article that energy use is tied directly to GDP per capita and that by not following the 7% growth of the Henry Adams Curve we're somehow below where we should/could be as a country. That embeds so many assumptions about the economy and where GDP comes from, the decoupling seems more likely to be from the transition from manufacturing and other energy heavy se…

Energy is the fuel for machines. And machines build more and faster than humans. To increase productivity, we need more machines, and so more energy.

If energy was 10 times cheaper than currently and still available (no shortage) then we would automate more tasks and increase the global productivity. We could mine more, build more, to train/run more LLMs.

GDP is tied to energy price and availability. It is likely the main reason why US enjoyed a growing economy thanks to its free oil reserves (and the reason why Texas alone is the 8th economy in the world). Now one could argue that after pumping oil for a century now, it might not be as cheap or plentiful to extract in the future, and we better be prepared for it.

It is all about energy. No energy, and we will reduce to human/manual or animal (bring back the horses!) labor. Productivity will decrease significantly.

One issue I have with the paper, is that it equates energy and electricity. My favorite chart about US energy: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/sites/flowcharts/files/2023-10/U...

shows that in 2022, electricity was just 13.3 Quads of the 76.07 Quads of the energy consumed in US by residential, commercial, industrial and transportation. So unless US "electrify" the whole economy having more electricity would only help a small part of the economy.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#336

Post by thfuran »

0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #100
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #88

OP suggests that land costs will soon dominate the equation. So no mention of orbital solar plants? Yes, somebody years ago published a study that said, Uneconomical! because lift costs, panel cost, transmission inefficiencies. All of those are now drastically changed, by orders of magnitude. It is not a matter of IF orbital solar is economical, but WHEN.

I would need to see some supporting napkin math on how that makes financial sense. Something on the ground, accessible by Joe the handyman is always going to be cheaper than anything launched into space. To balance that out is going to require some huge win. Availability, efficiency, etc. Solar input in orbit is higher than what is received at ground, but similar order of magnitude. I am not sure there are real world…

>Solar input in orbit is higher than what is received at ground, but similar order of magnitude.

On a sunny day, it's only something like 30% brighter above the atmosphere IIRC. I guess you beat cloud cover (assuming you can deliver it to ground through the clouds efficienly), but I agree it doesn't seem worth it.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#337

Post by magicfractal »

Just to point out that the reason why solar panel costs have been decreasing is because china as part of their 5-year plans set solar energy as a national priority and the world is now benefiting from their upfront investments and economies of scale. This is a clear datapoint towards economic planning for the green transition and rational management of natural resources.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#338

Post by redandblack »

kingkongjaffa wrote: post #209
caymanjim wrote: post #204

I spend four months of the year traveling in an RV. Two years ago, I budgeted over $6000 for my desired solar setup (at least 1200Ah of battery, at least 2400W of solar, plus various controllers and other components). It was expensive enough for me to hold off, and more importantly, I didn't have the space on my current RV for the solar panels. In just the two years since then, prices on batteries and panels have dro…

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

I am moving from New Jersey to Delaware - for me that is far from civilization, but can make it up by a once a month trek for the food scene in NJ.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#339

Post by ericd »

caymanjim wrote: post #331
ericd wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious, why do people use Ah for batteries, given that there's 3 different common server rack battery voltages (12, 24, 48)? Is 12 just assumed for RVing?

You make a good point. They really ought to be sold with Wh prominently displayed. I'm talking about 1200Ah@12V, although in reality there's a good chance that I'll do 600Ah@24V or 300Ah@48V. It's all the same 14.4kWh and will provide the exact same amount of usable power (ignoring some conversion efficiencies). I'm using Ah because I'm used to talking to people about 12V battery systems, and Ah is the most prominent…

Ah makes sense (that 12V is just implied for RVs). I'm used to dealing with 48V, since I'm doing this for a house, and it seems like they specify batteries both ways in that world. I wonder who uses 24V.

Anyway, thanks for explaining it.

Re: Can solar costs keep shrinking?

#340

Post by refurb »

kingkongjaffa wrote: post #209
caymanjim wrote: post #204

I spend four months of the year traveling in an RV. Two years ago, I budgeted over $6000 for my desired solar setup (at least 1200Ah of battery, at least 2400W of solar, plus various controllers and other components). It was expensive enough for me to hold off, and more importantly, I didn't have the space on my current RV for the solar panels. In just the two years since then, prices on batteries and panels have dro…

> I intend to buy undeveloped land far from civilization I'm always intrigued by this notion, I know plenty of Americans have this kind of plan, but it's never quite as remote as they think, because, y'know you're still in America somewhere. Unless you're thinking of somewhere in northern Canada. I'd love to know where is considered 'far from civilization' on the continental US.

Eastern US is a bit harder, but Western? It’s just a handful of cities and towns in a wilderness.

Go to Wyoming or Montana. You get a 2 or 3 hr drive outside major cities and you might be the only person around for 10+ miles.

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