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Why Britain doesn’t build

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Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#331
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The graph shows building rate as a proportion of the size of existing stock. But the existing stock is grossly insufficient to our needs. We've been building around 200k houses a year for decades, much less than that during most years of Conservative rule: https://www.statista.com/statistics/746101/completion-of-new... This is around 0.3% of the population. The population increase year on year is consistently larger…

> The current population of U.K. in 2023 is 67,736,802, a 0.34% increase from 2022. > The population of U.K. in 2022 was 67,508,936, a 0.34% increase from 2021. > The population of U.K. in 2021 was 67,281,039, a 0.33% increase from 2020. > The population of U.K. in 2020 was 67,059,474, a 0.42% increase from 2019. 1 year old babies dont 4 bedroom houses of their own.

I'm not sure that posting the population growth figures over four years and adding a snarky remark about babies owning houses proves anything whatsoever other than your own ignorance and disinterest on the matter in hand.

You'd need to also think about not only the number of homes built, but the kind of homes built, the location they're built in, the cost at which they're built, the incomes of those who need to be housed and where they and their jobs are located compared to the houses. And to cap it all you'd probably want to look at it over a meaningful time period because I don't think anyone thinks the current situation with UK housing started in 2019.

Or you can save us all the bother and say what you really mean - you either don't care or you're quite happy with the current situation.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sounds like democracy? Here is an example - 16 year olds who have a keen interest in their futute, are not allowed to vote. A 90 year old, who does not even remember that USSR has already collapsed, votes for a war-Mongering government. 18 year olds are drafted into the army and sent to fight a war, and they never had a chance to vote at all. Maybe their entire experience of democracy is getting sent to faraway lan…

The last time the United States had a draft was 1973. The last time the UK had a draft was 1960. Who is the 18 year old who is drafted into the army and sent to fight a war and getting sent to a faraway land to die? I mean. Russians, for at least some value of faraway. But I don't think they're the central example that you're thinking of.

That's 50 years ago. It's literally not even one lifetime ago.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#333
post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people in the UK don't bother with a licence. Eh. "Many" is such a vague term. Like, 5% could be considered many. UK is a driving country, period. where a driver's licence is almost essential in order to go about daily life. This is true in all highly developed countries if you live outside the largest cities. You need to drive. It is baked in the cost of your life. Renting is much cheaper outside of the city, b…

“in the 5 years from 2015 to 2019, an average of 74% of people in England had a full driving licence“

The provisional licence is enough as a voter ID though. I just used it in the last election.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> adult social care crisis, a pension crisis, and in some areas a rundown NHS I remember about 10 years ago, "the idea" was that retirees would, as their health starts to decline, do equity-release in their homes to pay for their care needs (on the basis that the NHS would start to means-test care based on the value of all assets, including housing, so that if an OAP has £1m locked-up in their house and they probably…

Theresa May tried to sell this as part of her election campaign. It was a disaster. No one wants to be forced to give up some of their personal wealth to pay more for an NHS they've already paid into. That may not be fair, but when most voters are property owners you're not going to get a different outcome. This is an interesting topic because it highlights how the political and economic culture is broken and incapab…

> Theresa May tried to sell this as part of her election campaign. It was a disaster. No one wants to be forced to give up some of their personal wealth to pay more for an NHS they've already paid into.

It's not as simple as "give up some of their personal wealth to pay more for an NHS they've already paid into". If you have 20K in your bank account and no property, you have to pay for your care. If you own 2 flats worth 1M each and have 10K in your bank account, you pay nothing. The so-called "dementia tax" would have make this situation fairer. Besides, they wouldn't have to release equity while alive, but the cost of care would be paid by the heirs upon selling or inheriting their parent's property.

Imagine a scenario where you have 20K in your bank account. You child inherits only 10K, because you had to pay for your care. Now imagine you have 2 flats and 10K in your bank account. Your child gets the whole lot. Does this look fair?

Theresa May, that, as far as I'm concerned, should be sent to the Hague for architecting the hostile environment for foreigners, had only one non-demented idea in her entire political career: making social care fairer, and that's what killed her premiership. I can't think of a more emblematic example of what is going on in the UK.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#335

Remember: regulations are written in blood. You can't simply build things willy nilly. The Grenfell Tower fire is a recent and stark reminder of what happens when you don't apply a lot of trained and expert input into things.

Safety regulations are.

The reg that says I cannot raise my roof 6 inches to squeeze in a loft conversion because then it won't be the same as my neighbours is just a hangover from the 50s...

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#336
Like a lot of things in Britain there's a chronic lack of development, and a 'pass the buck' trend.

Our water infrastructure is another prime example. There's been no real investment in decades and the system we have in place was designed for a population in the 1950s. As a result our reserves are woefully inadiquate, resulting in the annual 'hose pipe ban'. The rhetoric around it has changed recently though. According to one of the water boards its "because everyones working from home", ignoring the fact that we've had these issues long before the uptick in WFH.

Our electricity supply is just as bad, although this is one area thats getting a fair bit of private investment with offshore wind, but the lack of storage ability makes this useless at certain times of the year, resulting in situations like we had in late 2022 where old mothballed power stations had to be turned back on to meet demand.

Our housing issues are extremely frustrating. What little development does happen is often carried out to the bare minimum specifications to pass building regulations, with houses that may as well be made of paper and rooms the size of clossets due to massive overdevelopment on each plot of land.

Really we should've been building 3-4 new major cities spread around the country. We've had a few smaller scale towns (Cambourne comes to mind) but they don't go nearly far enough to solve the issue.

We've also got huge swaths of abandoned industrial land in the north, and whilst there has been some regeneration it's often "premium" tiny apartments in places like Manchester and Sheffield, primarily being sold to landlords who then let them out to university students.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#337
post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theresa May tried to sell this as part of her election campaign. It was a disaster. No one wants to be forced to give up some of their personal wealth to pay more for an NHS they've already paid into. That may not be fair, but when most voters are property owners you're not going to get a different outcome. This is an interesting topic because it highlights how the political and economic culture is broken and incapab…

It seems like maybe they didn’t pay in enough - baby boom demographics meant there were relatively more productive workers paying for relatively few old people, so each worker was paying a fraction of what it would cost to carry themselves through old age. Also, not enough kids, and of those, not enough who wanted to go into medicine. It seems like baby booms have a way of making things seem artificially good for a w…

[deleted]

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a terrible example as Japan is demographically imploding. If you buy a house in Japan it’s worth less over time.

That's exactly how it should be. Housing is a consumable, not an investment.

Why would you think that? A well built house can last hundreds of years. Why should it not be an investment?

It makes absolutely no sense to put any kind of money into something that one day will be worthless - like I read that it happens in Japan that on average a house is worthless after about 40 years.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#339
post #2

There's loads of houses being built in the UK (often of questionable quality, built for maximum profit, packed into minimal amounts of space). It may still not be enough to match the demand, but the real problem is we don't seem to be building any infrastructure to support these homes. More people and more homes requires more roads, railways, hospitals, police stations, power stations, sewer capacity, even reservoirs…

The infrastructure issue is very much true. In my former town they got permission to build 2500 new homes on a patch of greenbelt land. In doing this they added a roundabout to the busiest road in the city, which is already suffering as it's a former country lane that is still fairly narrow.

They didn't build anything to support the new development at all, so now all the local schools which were already struggling from being oversubscribed don't have any capacity, meaning there's now a daily (paid) coach service taking kids to the next town to go to school.

Flooding has become a major problem in the area, the former field had a ditch system at the bottom of it, which no longer exists. That main road has now been closed on several occasions, and the older houses that run on the opposite side of the road endured several feet of water running through their houses last year. The solution? Slap a couple more drains on the road - those residents already know they'll be flooded again come winter.

Re: Why Britain doesn’t build

#340
I am in Indian immigrant living in the UK for past 5 years. The housing system here feels extremely stupid to me. They basically resell houses 100+ years old at 5% higher value every year. It's kinda like gold or bitcoin, except those assets are actually very limited in number. But housing is simply artificially limited due to policies.

Total UK housing stock is worth 10T GBP vs 2.2T GBP GDP output. Don't think any other country comes even close in terms of skewed reliance on housing as a driver of wealth. I can't imagine the reduction in net worth of citizens (65% are owners) when house prices crash 20% due to higher interest rates. That would be 2T of the 10T value - almost the same as GDP.

Anecdotally, every British person I know has a common long term goal - save enough money for a 5-10% deposit on a mortgage. The incentives here are all wrong. You build wealth by investing in a house & taking 90% loan to value mortgages instead of actually working harder. Work is just a means to save enough for deposit & afford a mortgage premiums and maybe 1-2 holidays a year.

People complain UK is stagnating. Companies don't want to IPO in London. I can tell why - banks don't want to lend to SMEs. 50% of their lending is actually housing mortgages. Same with people - they would overwhelmingly invest in a house rather than own company shares. Housing is the root cause of malaise in the economy. Take away the incentives to own a house by building more homes, increasing mortgage rates and eliminating government policies helping people to buy & this country would just become much better

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