Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

Though, the US legislature is less likely to be able to navigate an economic disaster during this split as well.

90% or more of the population of China will become infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants during the first quarter. Assuming infection fatality rate of around 0.1%, between 1 and 1.5 million people may die, however the Chinese government will report numbers that are lower by at least an order of magnitude. The supply chain will be impacted, and it is possible that new variants may emerge and spread to the rest of the world.

The Russo-Ukrainian war will continue. A second major offensive against Ukraine is likely. Mobilisation (both military and industrial) will continue, Ukrainian infrastructure and economy will be further damaged. There will be no negotiations. Russian regime won't collapse, Russia will not split, NATO will not become involved in fighting on Ukrainian soil. The risk of a full-scale nuclear war is very low, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is more probable, but still unlikely.

China will not launch an attack on Taiwan in 2023.

There will be many new startups based on the OpenAI API, and this market will become extremely crowded. OpenAI will continue updating their GPT model and release version 4, which will significantly improve the quality and reliability of text output and will be multimodal. There will be at least one major, publicly available, competing LLM, likely from Meta.

Twitter will add the ability to make payments on their platform and will work on developing e-commerce capabilities. Meta will follow suit, most likely on Whatsapp.

2. Politicians will introduce legislation to regulate AI, with the initial focus on copyright protection, but it will be defeated. Court cases are brought against companies for training ML using copyrighted data, setting up an eventual supreme court battle in coming years.

3. AI will drive advancements in medical treatments, especially in pharmaceuticals and personalized medicine. While this has already been happening to some extent, the recent interest in AI will cause an increased investment of money and resources to companies working in this space.

4. Year of Linux desktop!

5. Remote work will end for many, due to the recession making employers feel more powerful to enforce back-to-office, for which which many middle managers will advocate. Companies who have thrived with a remote culture will remain that way, but those who have struggled will "force" employees back to their offices full time.