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San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

sfstandard.com

331–340 of 622 posts

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#331

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

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Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#332

Part of this is tying property taxes to real property values (yes I know SF's hands are bound by CA law and prop 13 in particular). These days I live in NZ here rates (the local name for our property tax equivalent) are determined by relative property values. Effectively the City decides it needs to raise $N this year - your property tax will be the fraction of this determined by the value of your land divided by the…

My understanding is that that is the rule in most states. Is where I live. I don't know about CA.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drug use is absolutely associated with erratic behavior including violence. I am pro-decriminalization but we need to be honest about the effects of chronic drug usage, especially methamphetamine.

> especially methamphetamine. Why especially Meth and not Heroin or other opioids?

Drug induced psychosis.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It doesn't have to. Housing can be affordable while going up in nominal terms. For how long? If housing is a good investment, eventually the cost of housing will outpace the ability of new entrants to the market to afford it. If you're already "in the market", you might be OK. But if you're not, even the down payment may be completely out of reach.

> For how long? Infinitely. Wages go up in nominal terms, too. What matters is the real housing price hovering around zero. (Slightly above, localized, is also fine if balanced by migration.)

Real "house price" for a given house should actually go down over time, because it gets older and worn down and just not quite as good as the new hotness.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#335
post #213

Still waiting for Vancouver real estate to follow suit but feels weird that in Vancouver its' socially acceptable for people without homes single out a certain ethnic group every cycle. Used to Japanese in the 1980s, Hong Kongers in 90s, Taiwanese in 00s and Chinese in 10s. This type of scapegoating doesn't seem prevalent in other real estate markets like California, their money is correct on high wage disparity betw…

> In both markets there is surprising silence on REITs and corporations buying up residential living spaces and flipping it. Wouldn't be surprised if those special interest groups also own/influence local media as well. I imagine that they're all financing YIMBY organizations, whose aims would do nothing but increase the value of their holdings.

Yes, YIMBYs are notorious for wanting housing to be scarcer and more expensive...

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What crimes will drug users commit if drugs are legally available like alcohol?

Evidence from Portland, which decriminalized all drugs via Measure 101, the answer is, "Whatever crimes are necessary to enable people to afford their drug of choice." Not all drugs are equal. You can't drink your way into effectively schizophrenia, but you can get there in no time with the currently available super-potent variety of meth. Some drugs completely wreck your ability to live in a way compatible with hold…

Is there any evidence that Measure 101 was a pivot? My limited understanding is that drugs and craziness were pervasive and on the rise in Portland well before that. The idea that criminalization controls drug use isn't clearly supported by historical evidence at this point.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We as an industry are still sailing through the air thinking things are fine with WFH, but in reality the engines have stalled and we're gliding. What I mean by that is that the industry has all the benefits of in-person work, having social connections, having gotten jobs through networking, and of knowing the ins and outs of a domain from pre-covid standards. As time goes on, I think the working population will have…

Totally agree. The pendulum is gonna swing back, it's just a matter of time. Yes there will be more remote-first companies but we will see how that pans out over 5 or so years. There is a hell of a lot more to running a tech company than just writing code. Code writing can easily be done from home but there is a lot of other roles where it isn't as easy. Plus, are people really gonna just hunker down in isolation? Ar…

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Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#338
post #325
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know people miss SF as it was before the boom, but can it actually readjust to substantially less tax revenue with the city government + responsibilities it has now? From what I read about Detroit, once businesses started shrinking or leaving the tax base shrank. The city was unable to cut down on services and spending, so it raised taxes on everyone remaining and the squeeze of more tax and worse QoL made people l…

> but can it actually readjust to substantially less tax revenue with the city government + responsibilities it has now That's the question isn't it? San Francisco has by far the highest per-capita city budget in the country. It spends more on homeless services in a year than most cities of similar size spend on everything . The city is simply addicted to spending money, and looking at the deterioration of street con…

The lesson of "you get what you incentivize" seems to be lost on them.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#339

Trivia note: there are certain words that only appear in headlines. Like "brace" to mean "prepare." (Although I think that one might occasionally show up in normal text.) What else? "eye" as a verb. ("Supervisors eye relaxing building codes")

brace yourself

brace for impact

you need to brace before squatting

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#340
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OH NO A WHOLE MONTH!! Inventory of listed homes remains extremely low. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUCA Median days on market still near all-time lows SF: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMAR41860 Cal: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARCA USA: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS

> inventory of listed homes remains extremely low Those are statewide statistics. Oakland is seeing a ~20% increase in days on market and 5% decrease in price from last year [1]. Population and income shocks hit poor neighborhoods first [2]. [1] https://www.redfin.com/city/13654/CA/Oakland/housing-market [2] https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.23...

> Population and income shocks hit poor neighborhoods first

Oakland has a Median HH Income of $80k - which is 20% higher than the US median HH income, and above median for California.

Oakland as a whole is definitely not poor.

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