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EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

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Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#331

Post by elihu »

epistasis wrote: post #85
ThunderSizzle wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your facts are inconvenient and will probably just be dismissed sadly. EVs need to win by being better without more risk, not by trying to ban people currently using ICEs.

When gas cars were first around, people carried extra gas around with them. Eventually we built gas stations, but somehow cars still got a toehold even without those gas stations pre-existing. There are very very very few places without electricity in the world. Are there some places where emergency conditions make travel inconvenient or uncertain? Sure, but these rare situations are narrowing daily. If that was the…

In the early years of aviation, Pan America used a huge fleet of sea planes. They did that because modern airports didn't exist yet, but ships were common and harbors provided the basic infrastructure they needed to operate.

We don't use sea planes much anymore, because aircraft now have their own dedicated airports.

I think of giant batteries on electric vehicles as being basically the same thing as a giant pontoon on an airplane: it's there because the infrastructure isn't good enough that we can leave it behind. In the case of EVs, I think what we need in the long run is electrified roads so that range becomes a non-issue for almost everyone, and we can use batteries that are half the size or less.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#332

Post by NavinF »

asiachick wrote: post #279
eyelidlessness wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> painted bicycle gutters are NOT proper bicycle infrastructure either To be clear, where I live there are recently installed “dedicated” bike routes which are separated from car traffic by concrete barriers and curbs, and also separated from pedestrian traffic by curbs and intermittent heavy ceramic planters. The problem is that the separations are interrupted to allow turns and deliveries. All of the separation is…

I'm pretty sure you're considering "bad" dedicated infra. In the Netherlands cars don't cut into the bike lane for turns. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouver-needs-follow-dutch...

That video doesn’t load for me, but I found a direct link: https://youtu.be/5HDN9fUlqU8

I’d love to avoid cutting into the bike lane (required for right turns in most of the US), but some of those intersections are massive and the rest (1:18 in the video) replace the sidewalk with a bike lane. I don’t think either of those will be popular in American cities.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#333

Post by ZeroGravitas »

endisneigh wrote: post #74

I love EVs. That being said I wish someone would make an enclosed bicycle/motorcycle that costs less than $2000. Something like that which can go 30mph and had space for 2 days of groceries would be enough for me to eliminate my car all together. I'm cobbling something similar now with a Class 3 cargo ebike, but rain sucks =/ The idealist in me says that electric ebikes could eliminate most of Americas problems in on…

I would guess some fraction of that cardiovascular issue is due to urban air pollution, which EVs (and renewables) will improve to the extent that people will be able to draw a causal link by looking at areas that switched to EVs at different times.

But cycling is great, more people should do it. And this is why I like the idea of 'gas tax' being replaced with something that accounts for all the remaining externalities of urban driving.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#334

Post by darkteflon »

asdff wrote: post #327
darkteflon wrote: post #29

I feel like predictions on EV adoption generally focus too much on practical benefits and cost improvements over time, but discount - or at least fail to mention - the potential impact of ICE products becoming very uncool, very quickly - at least in Western countries. Overnight, even. It’s not a big stretch to imagine that generations of younger people concerned about the climate might make product consumption choice…

So why didn't this happen with the prius?

We’re in a completely different cultural moment now on climate change, and modern EVs are quite unlike the Prius.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#335

Post by neallindsay »

shashurup wrote: post #319

I would love to use EV - it is simpler, more torque etc. But where do we get all this additional electricity from, mostly burning carbon?

Mostly solar. Solar panels have gotten a lot cheaper in recent years and are the most economical new power generation to build.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#336

Post by djaychela »

asdff wrote: post #327
darkteflon wrote: post #29

I feel like predictions on EV adoption generally focus too much on practical benefits and cost improvements over time, but discount - or at least fail to mention - the potential impact of ICE products becoming very uncool, very quickly - at least in Western countries. Overnight, even. It’s not a big stretch to imagine that generations of younger people concerned about the climate might make product consumption choice…

So why didn't this happen with the prius?

Because a Prius isn't a particularly 'cool' vehicle (my step-son and his friends detest them, and they're pretty into cars), and were widely used as taxis (at least here in the UK), so they have an image problem.

Full EVs have a much better reputation with them - even something like my Renault Zoe - because they have zero tailpipe emissions, and even the Zoe is pretty quick and super-smooth in comparison to a comparable ICE vehicle.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#337

Post by ZeroGravitas »

Animats wrote: post #301
rootusrootus wrote: post #27

I have owned a Tesla, and I leased my wife a Bolt a while back. She's convinced, I'm convinced, but with the lease coming to an end next year we probably will not replace the Bolt with another EV. Why? Prices. I was ready to buy a Mach E, but then Ford raised the price something like 6 grand while simultaneously losing the $7500 tax credit. That effectively bumps the price of the car into a territory I don't think ma…

This is a big problem. There isn't enough EV manufacturing capacity to meet demand. So, right now, EVs are being treated by auto manufacturers as a premium product with huge markups. Tesla never did ship a $35K car, and Ford's electric F-150 is substantially more expensive than the gas version. Worse, electrics tend to come with all the useless high-end trim options. Price the Jeep Wrangler EV. I wonder if we will ev…

I think Chinese (and other) pure EV brands will probably replace the existing car manufacturers.

However, charging what the market will bear in a tight market is not the thing that will doom them. Artificially limiting their production of EVs, through internal strife or plain bad planning will hurt them though.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#338

Post by maigret »

anon291 wrote: post #238
sandworm101 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just completed a ~1600km drive back from visiting family. Half way through the outbound trip, in the middle of the mountains, I had to make a 300km detour due to a massive accident (two semi trucks head-on closed a mountain highway for more than a day). The detour was through a valley with no cellphone coverage for 150+km. At a rest stop I met a tesla driver in a panic. Without internet he was unable to figure out…

Europeans don't understand how sparse and unpopulated the United States is . Even if they visit they visit the densely populated areas not realizing that most Americans regularly drive across areas where you may not see anyone for miles around. It's not that uncommon an occurrence. Most Americans will do something like this a few times a year. Many do it daily... Canadians too

No, the problem is many people cannot think within the new reality. Even in the US there are power lines almost everywhere (https://hifld-geoplatform.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/geopl...), so nothing prevents from installing chargers every 10-20 miles. It's not like a gas station!

Even then, I think most Americans overestimate their range needs. A stop every two hours is recommended for every driver to keep attention at safe levels, and even then there are bio breaks and the occasional coffee or drink or lunch.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#339

Post by asdff »

d--b wrote: post #315

What are the main obstacle to cheap EV? Today's car are heavy as hell compared to cars made 30 years ago. Is it possible to make cars that are build on a much lighter base, but that use a heavier/cheaper battery (sodium based?)

Yeah, its called an ebike. When you are using a vehicle as large as an electric car to run your errands, probably 95% of the energy is spent just to move the vehicle around, not you or your groceries but just the vehicle to A and B. With a 50 lb ebike and a few panniers running those groceries versus a 5000lb ev, you are doing the same work but a lot more of the energy spent is going to the actual work, moving you and your groceries, rather than the vehicle.

Now if you consider the length of it, things aren't any better. The next time you are in gridlocked traffic, look at the cars around you. Imagine the cars just disappeared and everyone was standing in the road. It's obviously pretty inefficient to wait in line with 20-30 foot gaps between the person in front of you and 10-15 foot gaps with the person beside you, but thats what rush hour is in cars.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#340

Post by tpxl »

anovikov wrote: post #306
Animats wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a big problem. There isn't enough EV manufacturing capacity to meet demand. So, right now, EVs are being treated by auto manufacturers as a premium product with huge markups. Tesla never did ship a $35K car, and Ford's electric F-150 is substantially more expensive than the gas version. Worse, electrics tend to come with all the useless high-end trim options. Price the Jeep Wrangler EV. I wonder if we will ev…

Insufficient capacity is all that blocks EV market share from hitting 60-70% in an instant (rest will be diehard conservatives). So we will see it being the case for the next 10 years or so, naturally.

Grid capacity is what blocks EV market share and will continue to be the blocker for the foreseeable future.

A 2 person apartment where I live will consume ~400kWh of power in a typical month. Charging a 100kWh battery twice a month per person would double the power usage. We don't have the power generation, nor power delivery for that, nor will we have it for some time.

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