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Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

nytimes.com

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Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#331

Post by RachelF »

nwienert wrote: post #271
chrisco255 wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GPS is nice and all, but I would not say we move vastly differently compared to 30 years ago or even 70 years ago (basically, since interstate highways were developed). And electric motors are just a horizontal change in technology. They may have better acceleration than ICEs, but we're still going to be fundamentally traveling the same way. Only if and when self-driving becomes a thing, or personal drone transport v…

I upgraded from a 95 4Runner to a 22 Outlander and it’s like a spaceship on wheels in comparison. Literally every piece of the car is in a different class and the tech is insane that just didn’t exist then, I mean it basically drives itself. It’s dramatically safer, more efficient, comfier, faster, quieter. I no longer hate long drives, they’re quite nice. The speakers are amazing and the road noise is basically gone…

Your 22 Outlander won't last as long as your 1995 car.

There's just too much tech in it that will go wrong, or be unsupported in 10 years.

No one will know how to fix it.

We are adding complexity where we should not be, but then cars are designed to be sold, not to be used for more than 3 years.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#332

Post by gtowey »

pessimizer wrote: post #193
dilyevsky wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? It’s clear to me krugman never held a hammer in his life bc that is just laughable statement

Are there a lot more hammers now than in the 80s?

I think he's trying to say that while superficially a house may appear much the same as in the 80's, anyone who has hands on building experience would immediately recognize the difference in materials and construction techniques.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#333

Post by jwmhjwmh »

The article is paywalled, so I'm just going by the title, but one thing holding back labor productivity is low wages. When wages are low, labor-saving technology is less likely to be cost-effective. It's funny when Hacker News' innovation-loving capitalists oppose minimum wages, since by doing so they are holding innovation back.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#334

Post by wolverine876 »

syntheweave wrote: post #324

Technology is popularly misunderstood as "gadgets and lab science". But the root of the word is shared with technique . That is, if I have a technique for applying leverage, and I use it to make a lever, that's a simple technology. If I define a new system of organizing my home according to some principles, that's a technology. And so on. It is certainly the case that we have found new techniques and technologies in…

> Technology is popularly misunderstood as "gadgets and lab science". But the root of the word is shared with technique.

Yes, and as you say, one is as good as another (given the same ROI). I remind myself of that by using the word 'tech' and, inwardly at least, repeating 'tools and technique'.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#335

Post by danans »

dilyevsky wrote: post #168
Barrin92 wrote: post #122

Because new technology is as Thiel often quips limited to the world of bits rather than the world of atoms. Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? Gordon in the Rise and Fall of American Growth gives a similar example, what if you went into a time capsule between say 1890 and 1950 compared to 1960 and 2010? In one…

> Paul Krugman once asked, if you go into an average house right now and you take out all the screens, could you tell that you're not in the 80s? It’s clear to me krugman never held a hammer in his life bc that is just laughable statement

Obviously he was referring to the existence of conveniences of the homes (dishwashers, laundry machines), not how they were built or the finishings. There have been very few big changes in how homes are built since that time.

A little more insulation, and they've gotten even bigger, but they are otherwise pretty static.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#336

Post by wolverine876 »

dredmorbius wrote: post #327
wolverine876 wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a person can write a paper just as well in Wordperfect 5 as the latest Google Doc or Office365 Word That seems hard to believe; try printing, or formatting. It's like saying 'a person can fly just as well in a 1930s biplane or a current 737.' Sure, they both fly. On the other hand, am I more productive in 2022 Emacs than I would be in 1985 Emacs?

As Robert Gordon notes in his The Rise and Fall of American Growht , an air traveller in 1936 headed from New York to Chicago, could have made the trip in 3h 55m gate-to-gate, vs. 2h 35m today. But in 1936, arrival at the airport need only be 10 minutes prior to departure, gates were immediately next to the terminal entrance, and taxis or a chauffeured Cadillac limousine were 5 minutes from the gate --- the latter co…

Good points. Still, there are imperfections in the argument: safety, availability (very few could afford that flight in 1936, if I understand correctly), range (NY to LA or London would be entirely different, etc.).

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#337

Post by dredmorbius »

For one strong argument, see the current thread on Symbian source code, and practices at Nokia and within the mobile phone industry:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31491744

Turf-wars, naked competition, monopolistic practices, and secrecy all have much to answer for.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#338

Post by dredmorbius »

wolverine876 wrote: post #336
dredmorbius wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As Robert Gordon notes in his The Rise and Fall of American Growht , an air traveller in 1936 headed from New York to Chicago, could have made the trip in 3h 55m gate-to-gate, vs. 2h 35m today. But in 1936, arrival at the airport need only be 10 minutes prior to departure, gates were immediately next to the terminal entrance, and taxis or a chauffeured Cadillac limousine were 5 minutes from the gate --- the latter co…

Good points. Still, there are imperfections in the argument: safety, availability (very few could afford that flight in 1936, if I understand correctly), range (NY to LA or London would be entirely different, etc.).

The range question was addressed by 1960.

Costs fell markedly from 1930 -- 1970. Far less so since.

It's popular to point to how much airline ticket prices have fallen since dregulation (under Democratic president Carter) in 1979, without also noting that 1979 was a local price peak driven by the Iranian oil embargo of the same year.

Safety has increased, of course. That's largely been a continuous function from the first days of flight ... with a curious exception in the first decade of the 2000s, where passenger deaths/mile fell markedly. (Also in Gordon's book.)

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#339

Post by lotsofpulp »

rfrey wrote: post #328
lotsofpulp wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can still get those things from your 60s house, it will simply cost more (adjusted for inflation). But I do not see how quality of life are any worse with LVT flooring instead of wood, or PEX plumbing instead of copper, or wiring in a hard conduit instead of not wiring in a hard conduit. I would even say quality of life is better. Why would I want to wax wood, and have a more difficult to repair floor. An LVT pie…

Homes today are cheaper than the 60s? The 60s where a single earner family, where the earner was a schoolteacher, could afford a house before having kids?

The materials for the home are cheaper (adjusted for increase in quality/utility). For example, insulating a house to the same level is cheaper today than in previous decades. Same with the plumbing and flooring and many other advances where plastics technologies made a lot of things cheaper and safer too.

Land in certain locations of course a different matter, as well as labor.

Re: Why isn’t new technology making us more productive?

#340

Post by danans »

gtowey wrote: post #332
pessimizer wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are there a lot more hammers now than in the 80s?

I think he's trying to say that while superficially a house may appear much the same as in the 80's, anyone who has hands on building experience would immediately recognize the difference in materials and construction techniques.

> anyone who has hands on building experience would immediately recognize the difference in materials and construction techniques

The point is that the differences are largely incremental. Same stick built frames, same flimsy building wrap, same poorly installed fiberglass batts.

None of that compares to the quantum leap that was indoor plumbing, in home telecommunications, automatic kitchen and laundry machines.

But it's also that such massive change happened prior to the 80s that afterwards we have focused more on optimizing than new categories in our houses. And optimizing isn't bad, it's just a different type of advancement.

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