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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#331

Post by Steltek »

jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

I figured it was that concerted civilian targeting will force NATO to act. Or perhaps that the close ties between the two countries is still somewhat able to override Putin's shitty bloodthirsty instincts in some ways.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#332

Post by astrange »

rr808 wrote: post #109
slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

That was my thought too. They have the luxury if just sitting there waiting safely for the right time while the capital self implodes. Western press talks a lot about it, meanwhile in the South the war is going badly.

Well it's not going badly, it's expected that Russia would win because of how much bigger they are. It's more that it's going badly for Russia in the north and expectedly in the south.

Of course, being able to capture land doesn't mean they can occupy it.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#333

Post by oh_sigh »

SyzygistSix wrote: post #238
oh_sigh wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I downvoted you because this line of logic is deployed, I believe, by race obsessed westerners who are privately fuming that a shooting war has sidelined their culture war for a few weeks. "Don't forget about me and the things I care about!" Just because a talking head or two makes those claims does not mean it is all of the sudden the truth. If Russia was worried about the looks of white civilian casualties, they wo…

Regardless of race, plenty of people have brought up that this is about as popular to many Russians as the US invading Canada would be.

I agree, but that is a completely different point than "The western world only cares about this conflict because the victims have blue eyes and blonde hair"

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#334

Post by astrange »

whimsicalism wrote: post #65
milesdyson_phd wrote: post #56

One thing I don't understand is Russia's opening missile salvos, they barely even struck at the heart of the Ukrainian Air Force. I guess you could theorize they didn't want to destroy that infrastructure in the event that the Ukrainian government rolled over, but that seems to have been a risky bet that is currently playing out.

> they barely even struck at the heart of the Ukrainian Air Force Keep in mind that media reports and reports from the Ukrainian military are designed to minimize losses and boost morale. I've seen quite a few videos of Ukrainian planes destroyed on the tarmac and there isn't evidence for a significant Ukrainian air presence anymore.

Those videos are from a boneyard, they weren't active planes.

@oryxspioenkop has the most reliable confirmed info on losses, as long as you can stand his love for Bayraktars.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#335

Post by 999900000999 »

mercutio2 wrote: post #290
999900000999 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm Like I said, I'm not enlisting if the Russians invade Poland. If individual American citizens want to…

Are you saying you would enlist if Germany, France, or the UK was invaded, but specifically Poland isn't worth enlisting for, because it's a former Warsaw Pact country? Or are you saying that you just don't believe in NATO, you would like the US not to have mutual defense alliances at all, and the expansion of NATO is completely irrelevant to your feelings about NATO? Poland and Hungary have done autocratic things I…

>Or are you saying that you just don't believe in NATO, you would like the US not to have mutual defense alliances at all, and the expansion of NATO is completely irrelevant to your feelings about NATO?

I'm not enlisting for anything short of America actually getting invaded. During the Vietnam War anyone with a bit of money could get deferments. Those are what I call smart men. I feel absolutely no obligation to die in a foreign conflict.

Providing logistic and selling arms is more than fine, but getting directly involved is a completely different matter.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#336

Post by selimthegrim »

saiya-jin wrote: post #227
tus666 wrote: post #131

I think this misses the point entirely. It's their entire strategy, or lack of strategy that is in question. Small numbers of light vehicles entering towns they have not overcome...are then promptly destroyed by irregular Ukrainian forces often with improvised weapons. Seemingly trying to take large cities without first gaining and controlling ground and surrounding areas. Lack of attempts to destroy strategic infras…

I think the reason was, we just waltz into Kyev, get greeted as saviors and liberators, maybe shoot Zelenskyy and his circle in the head by mistake, or just make them disappear, install another friendly ruler (collaborator would be more appropriate, like Kadyrov in Chechnya) and Ukraine will be part of Russia within next few years, or end up as slave without any real autonomy like Belarus. If that's the case, industr…

There was a hue and cry about Ukrainians dipping bullets into salo but seeing as the Chechens got droned by Bayraktars it seems like the Turks don't mind whatever treatment the drones are getting.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#337

Post by throwawayay02 »

lmohseni wrote: post #309
ChildOfChaos wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean all I see when I look online is Russia attacking Civilians and not caring who they attack. Yes there is a degree of restraint because they are trying to take the country over, they cannot burn it to the ground, but they don’t really seem to care about civilians and keep committing war crimes, just now they directly bombed near a hotel and train station, people trying to flee the country. Saying they are ‘pro-c…

We have footage of cluster bombs striking civilian apartment buildings in Kharkiv: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZuKEwuZznw

There are counter claims that that building was being used for recruitment for the Azov battalion.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#338

Post by 988747 »

gpm wrote: post #304
988747 wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one seems concerned, except the NATO Secretary General who rushed to Poland specifically to stop Polish President, Andrzej Duda from lending Polish jet fighters: https://news.yahoo.com/no-eu-countries-aren-t-233404478.html Also, that one jet that flew from Romania was flying BACK, because it already belonged to Ukraine, just had an emergency landing in Romania for some unknown reason: https://www.thedrive.com/the-…

The argument that you are making is that "Allowing to use the military infrastructure, such as an airport is an act of war". How in the world is letting a Ukranian jet land and take off at an airport making less use of that airport, than giving Ukraine a jet and only letting it take off from the airport?

Well, we don't know the whole story, but the fact that it was Ukrainian jet, not a gift, could matter a lot. Those things aren't strict rules, it is all based on perception by both sides. Sending 70 fighters, as EU planned, or allowing them to operate freely from Polish airports would anger Russia much more. Which apparently isn't something NATO is willing to do right now.

EDIT: the fact that the jet was Ukrainian gives Romania plausible deniability - they can always say that the pilot wanted to fight, and took the jet against their will :)

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#339

Post by tguvot »

csee wrote: post #327
tguvot wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's not reported in russian media as it will contradict narrative - successful campaign to support armies of LNR/DNS to liberate their republics. Nothing else is reported in media

What about the attempts on Kyiv and shelling of Lviv? Didn't Putin say that he wanted to "denazify" all of Ukraine in his opening declaration, not just LNR/DNS?

absolutely nothing. nada. zero. it's full blown 1984. everybody who says word war instead of "special military operation" is taken off air (they shut down two major radio stations). they are going to make televised school lesson explaining to kids purpose of operation is to keep republics safe (they also sent upfront documents showing how things must be explained to children) duma supposed to make law tomorrow that spreading misinformation about "operation" is an offence.

use google translate to browse those ru domains : ria lenta gazeta

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#340

Post by dathinab »

Before realizing that there is natural Gas west of Crimea I thought:

Why is a Ukrain NATO membership a risk for Russia, there is no change that in Europe NATO would attack Russia, as European NATO members would not allow it.

That is except if Russia expects to be in a war against NATO in the not to long future. (Not necessary start the war though).

This behaviour could also fit into this argument, i.e. losing a lot by being trying not to lose the important parts to much.

Through it could also be:

- Political games including high Generals of the Russian Air Force rejecting getting fully involved in the war.

- Putin being paranoid and believing that if they send major Air Force troops to Ukrain then some 3rd party will use this to invade Russia/destroy major parts of Russians Air Force.

- Putin hoping to get an excuse to wage war against NATO and therefore is holding back the Air Force to launch a attack against other forces.

- Russia being in a much worse economical state then believed, not affording to fly the full Air Force.

- Something having subtle damaged huge parts of their Air Force (and is kept secret). Like e.g. there being a problem with some of the materials used to build them, or with their guidance system, or similar.

- Russia is falling apart (on a high command level) Putin has lost most power, including command over the Air Force, this is a last desperate attempt to regain power.

EDIT: Maybe this post is a bit too much taping into conspiracy theory territory.

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