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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#331

Post by ncallaway »

jjulius wrote: post #94
paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

I don't disagree with your broader statement about autopilot's safety relative to other drivers, but... >The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. ... what ? Tesla owners absolutely can be habitua…

> Tesla owners absolutely can be habitual speeders, people who drive without sleep, road ragers, and drunk drivers.

The average Tesla owner may well be those things. But I know that *I* am not those things.

I know my own driving record well. I know my own accident history well.

So you don't have to convince me that Tesla is better than the average driver. You don't have to convince me that Tesla is better than the average Tesla owner. You have to convince me that Tesla is better than *me*.

Now, apply that same analysis to the 88% of drivers that think they are above the median [1] in terms of driving safety. It doesn't matter if I am _right_, it matters what I think about my relative driving safety.

[1] https://www.gwern.net/docs/psychology/1981-svenson.pdf

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#332

Post by jliptzin »

ummonk wrote: post #239
jliptzin wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A third the price but still pouring disgusting fumes into our neighborhoods

The disgusting fumes are almost exclusively from diesel trucks and very old cars. Manufacturing affordable (no, the Model 3 is not affordable) new cars helps take old cars off the streets and make our neighborhoods cleaner.

Those are just more disgusting fumes, I prefer no fumes entering the cabin of my car and into my lungs from the car in front of me

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#333

Post by moralestapia »

sakopov wrote: post #128
nja wrote: post #44

I was just watching this video of a Tesla trying and miserably failing to drive itself through the streets of Boston: https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1488555256162172928 A number of these near-crashes seem to be pretty odd errors (a couple of times it just decided to drive on the wrong side of the street?) -- albeit ones that one _could_ see drivers unfamiliar with the area making. If a human driver started dri…

This is interesting. I have seen similar videos of Tesla self-driving successfully on similar type of streets in Seattle. I wonder if the quality of FSD changes from city to city based on how much data Tesla receives from other drives in that city. I guess I'm suggesting that Seattle could have more Tesla drivers than Boston. I have no idea if any of this is true. Just a thought.

I now wonder how the quality of FSD changes when you're cruising in a road with blue houses vs. red houses on the side. I'm not being snarky here, that's the kind of thing "AI" is known to do.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#334

Post by olliej »

GuB-42 wrote: post #330

One thing I wonder about the safety of Autopilot (because I have never used a Tesla). Doesn't the Autopilot sometimes just give up in difficult situations? Either explicitly, by stopping behind parked cars or things like that, or worse, by behaving so badly that the driver has to take back control for his own safety. The worst case would be: autopilot doesn't see an obstacle, driver sees it at the last moment, takes…

Yes, it does, which is also a great way to avoid "being active in a crash". The model of "a human must being completely focused 100% of the time while also not doing anything to control the vehicle and ready to take control" is not a reasonable model, and is why all the "partial" self-driving rules are nonsense.

It also helps statistics both directly: crashes are more likely in the snow and rain, but Teslas don't do self driving in those conditions (that's one of the things this paper addresses).

Tesla has in numerous cases blamed the driver for not taking control of the unsafe "self driving" when crashes occurred, how many near misses have occurred due to drivers intervening? Airlines and aircraft manufacturers are required to report events where a pilot how to take over to prevent an accident but Tesla and co don't

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#335

Post by sakopov »

dawnerd wrote: post #325
sakopov wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is interesting. I have seen similar videos of Tesla self-driving successfully on similar type of streets in Seattle. I wonder if the quality of FSD changes from city to city based on how much data Tesla receives from other drives in that city. I guess I'm suggesting that Seattle could have more Tesla drivers than Boston. I have no idea if any of this is true. Just a thought.

It for sure does. Where I live, Oxnard it fails so badly I don't know how I was allowed into the beta. But if I drive down a few cities over it works well enough that if I didn't know better I'd say it's ready for public. It's just wild.

That is wild. I know nothing about ML, but I would think that the driving data Tesla sucking in from various places supposed to improve overall driving regardless of the location. At least within the same country. Would be interesting to know how this actually works, but I'm sure it's all secret sauce we'll never know much about.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#336

Post by [deleted] »

jgeada wrote: post #293
dzader wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Boeing instructed pilots to take corrective action in case of a malfunction, when the airplane would enter a series of automated nosedives. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_MAX_groundings

And that is why the whole 737 Max fleet got grounded and none of those planes were allowed to be operational until Boeing put in place a fix for the problem. And most airlines ended up cancelling pending orders for the 737 Max and switched to a different brand that didn't play nearly as fast and loose with safety.

[deleted]

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#337

Post by nwiswell »

avs733 wrote: post #222
contravariant wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So to summarize: - Freeways account for 93% of distance travelled with Autopilot - Freeways account for 28% of the distance travelled by regular drivers. - "vehicles on non-freeways crashed 2.01 times more often per mile" a quick back of the envelop calculation suggests merely driving on the freeway lowers accidents per mile by ~40%, which accounts for most of the difference between Autopilot and regular drivers.

so in sum, Thomas Bayes just kicked Tesla square in the ass?

Square in the frunk.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#338

Post by ActorNightly »

mdoms wrote: post #328
ActorNightly wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its kinda amazing to see the cognitive dissonance that people have when it comes to "regulators". When these regulators get swayed by the car industry into stupid stuff like 25 year import rule, or how they still keep speed limits around which have nothing to do with safety as they are based on outdated MPG savings initiative and end up disproportionally affecting lower income people, they rightfully are criticized.…

> When these regulators get swayed by the car industry into stupid stuff like 25 year import rule, or how they still keep speed limits around which have nothing to do with safety as they are based on outdated MPG savings initiative and end up disproportionally affecting lower income people, they rightfully are criticized. > However, as soon as some manufacturer pops up and does something that the public doesn't like,…

I also want everything and everyone to just start working like a well oiled machine as humans live in Utopia, but that is a discussion about fiction, not reality.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#339

Post by belter »

contravariant wrote: post #138
gnicholas wrote: post #2

Underlying study is here. [1] Full disclosure, I co-wrote the piece for The Daily Beast [2] that originally suggested that Tesla's methodology was seriously flawed. I am not a Tesla-hater though — I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. 1: https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 2: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-tesla-and-elon-musk-exagge...

So to summarize: - Freeways account for 93% of distance travelled with Autopilot - Freeways account for 28% of the distance travelled by regular drivers. - "vehicles on non-freeways crashed 2.01 times more often per mile" a quick back of the envelop calculation suggests merely driving on the freeway lowers accidents per mile by ~40%, which accounts for most of the difference between Autopilot and regular drivers.

Again the old tricks, from "How To Lie With Statistics."

I get you a perfect Sample around age, income, sex, nationality, times of day and others. Prove to you 98% of people in this Town love Romantic Comedies.

The only thing I am not telling you, is that I am running the Inquiry at the exit atrium door of a Romantic Comedy movie...

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#340

Post by dawnerd »

sakopov wrote: post #335
dawnerd wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It for sure does. Where I live, Oxnard it fails so badly I don't know how I was allowed into the beta. But if I drive down a few cities over it works well enough that if I didn't know better I'd say it's ready for public. It's just wild.

That is wild. I know nothing about ML, but I would think that the driving data Tesla sucking in from various places supposed to improve overall driving regardless of the location. At least within the same country. Would be interesting to know how this actually works, but I'm sure it's all secret sauce we'll never know much about.

I'm guessing its primarily road & map quality followed by whatever other 'not HD maps' they use.
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