Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out • Hacker News Board

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#331

Post by sudosysgen » Thu, Jul 22, 2021, 7:05 PM UTC

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #330

sudosysgen wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we're talking past each other. You're not describing a house that's cashflow negative, you're describing a cashflow positive house, with 337+mainrenance expenses and >800/m revenue Generally a cashflow negative house will have a much higher payment over a shorter term with much more principal, and much more in rent. You also forgot inflation of the house price. You have to take into account 2% increase in hou…

Cash-flow negative is a simple term. It means your cash out is more than your cash in. You can't hand wave expenses and pretend you're cash-flow positive. You can do that with profitablity, though. I did not forget inflation. I literally said a "a cash-flow negative house that does not appreciate and become even more cash-flow negative"! You are taking appreciation for granted (which is fine, the Fed literally guaran…

Inflation essentially guarantees appreciation at the rate of inflation for hard assets.

If you have a house with a 20 year mortgage at 3% interest where maintenance is 50% of the mortgage payment, with no appreciation in real terms and 2% inflation, 50% of what rent is becomes profit. (1/((1.03-1.02)^20))*0.66 = 54.5%

If you put down as down-payment 100 000$ for a property worth 1800$ in rent, which is realistic, you get 11 000$ in profit per year from a 100 000$ investment, which is great.

That's assuming no appreciation in real terms, ie, the cost of the house exactly matches inflation.

Therefore, renting is profitable even without appreciation of real estate in real terms.*

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#332

Post by timwaagh » Thu, Jul 22, 2021, 10:05 PM UTC

NiceWayToDoIT wrote: post #262

timwaagh wrote: post #4

Maybe criminals like staying at Airbnb. They have the cash after all and Airbnb can easily be used to hide ones identity.

Have you ever used AirBnb? It is not possible to be anonymous in AirBnB, to rent a flat they will ask you for multiple ID documents so they could confirm who you are, furthermore there is scoring system so anything fishy about guest or host will stay in the permanent record. I have used AirBnb a lot across the world, and overall I have not had any significantly bad experience.

I used to host on there. A lot of guests did not use their own account. Of one such person I later found out he sold stolen watches. But I suppose uploading a fake id wouldn't be impossible either.

Airbnb primarily relies on its review system to ban people. this unfortunately has nothing to do with what you do for a living (instead it's determined by the level of luxury you provide as host and/or whether you damage the place as a guest).

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#333

Post by _carbyau_ » Thu, Jul 22, 2021, 11:58 PM UTC

lordnacho wrote: post #295

_carbyau_ wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that reasoning, sex workers should be able to operate from any home too. Or carpenters. Or mechanics. Or pubs. Or concerts... There is a reason zoning exists.

As always it's a matter of judgement which businesses are ok and which are a nuisance. Any number of desk job type businesses would not worry me much. Strip joints tend to be open late at night and have lots of traffic, so that's the other end of the spectrum. AirBnB for me is not necessarily at the desk job end but they're also not at the strip joint end. I think it's up for debate.

The matter of judgement comes down to "Who's judgement?"

AirBnB clearly thinks it is fine. The people on either side of AirBnB renting may think it is fine. People living next door don't get a say, and yet have to deal with the social outcome. They want a say.

Why do they want a say?

Reputation with your neighbours is the outcome of repeated interaction - prisoners dilemma-ish in action.

Humans prove time and again their behaviour can't be guaranteed when they perceive they are anonymous, or the interaction is a once off.

I think "it is up for debate" as to how to proceed in future. I don't think it is up for debate that we can continue without change.

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#334

Post by _carbyau_ » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 12:10 AM UTC

forrestthewoods wrote: post #293

_carbyau_ wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that reasoning, sex workers should be able to operate from any home too. Or carpenters. Or mechanics. Or pubs. Or concerts... There is a reason zoning exists.

> By that reasoning No! Bad! Stop that!! The fact that I think some currently illegal things should be legal is not evidence that anything and everything should be legal. Similarly the fact that some things are made illegal is not automatic evidence or reasoning that another, different thing should also be illegal. Different things are different. The reasons why one thing should be legal or illegal may or may not app…

LOL! I am not your dog. :-)

The "reasoning" was that a hotelier business was fine to run in the middle of a community. I merely listed other example businesses as a lede.

You seem to think there are reasons for why one business might be ok but others aren't. Care to detail those reasons?

Or are you worried that those reasons also apply to AirBnB?

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#335

Post by handmodel » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 7:02 PM UTC

gzer0 wrote: post #65

handmodel wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you said if there is a "that guy" in a neighborhood you'd feel unsafe and Airbnb is displacing those people. It's a trade-off. Its not like this about adding units to a neighborhood but specifically that there is less community if that's the case there are lots of Airbnbs (they said in the article that noise complains and crimes leading to rowdy behavior did not change). If someone was on the fence about whether t…

Knowing whether it was 5% or 40% makes no difference- either one could be enough to cause the negative consequences listed in the article. More studies would be needed to draw further conclusions. You are beginning to create arguments that do not exist to justify your position. It is unfortunate that you resort to circular reasoning and logic to support a non-existant claim.

I don't see how this number does not make sense.

If you think that 5% bad neighbors is enough to ruin a whole neighborhood then it would be tough to blame it on AirBNB since most neighborhoods allow subletters in some form (ADUs in SFH areas, apartment subletters in apartment areas). Meanwhile, the only way to get to 40% is really by AirBNBs.

I don't see how one can say that a magnitude difference, and knowledge of what the baseline is without AirBNB, would not change your opinion.

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#336

Post by handmodel » Fri, Jul 23, 2021, 7:06 PM UTC

addicted wrote: post #302

handmodel wrote: post #3

The article doesn't mention it - and I can't find it anywhere - but in any neighborhood what is the highest proportion of units that are short-term rentals. Five percent? Ten percent in the super touristy areas? I have no idea and even before the other flaws in the study I am skeptical than anything short of 20% would make an impact on any major attribute of an area. I see one stat in the paper that "40% of buildings…

I’m curious. Why do you think anything less than 20% will not have an effect? Why isn’t that tipping point number, 0.01% instead of 20%, for example? For example, gentrification effects in a community can be felt at much much lower numbers than that. In fact, it can take only a few handfuls of rich people moving into an area for it to start gentrifying because it completely changes the expectations landlords have. Su…

I probably articulated that poorly but my general thought is that in any urban area (the paper talks about Boston a lot) there is already going to be a fairly large amount of turnover/subletters. I've lived in ADUs in residential SFH areas and have subletted apartments.

The 20% is arbitrary but I guess my general instinct is that because the baseline for turnover/short-term subletter in any area that is somewhat urban (the focus of the paper) is going to be 5-10% minimum. The 20% I admit I pulled out of my ass, but its hard for me to fathom how a 3% usage in AirBNB would be more impactful than an area that sees 20% year turnover and a 15% subletter rate.

Re: Airbnb raises violent crime rates in cities as residents are pushed out

#337

Post by dougSF70 » Mon, Jul 26, 2021, 8:04 PM UTC

michaelmrose wrote: post #238

enjo wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does a hotel not add economic value?

Most places have enough hotel capacity except for very special occasions meaning it mostly shifts value. To an extent it has an effect it mostly decreases average cost of staying while increasing cost of actually living there almost like vacuuming money out the pockets of residents to give to Airbnb and tourists.

I am not even sure it decreases the cost of staying. Hotels are remarkable value except during peak season, and even then airbnb are also expensive. No financial benefit to the tourist.