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Delta Variant

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Re: Delta Variant

#331

Post by mindslight »

aeternum wrote: post #314
mindslight wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it okay to destroy someone's house with axes and water when it's on fire but otherwise it's illegal? There's clearly inconsistency by the fire department here. Seriously, what other course of events do you propose should have happened? Vaccines couldn't have been developed before Covid-19 existed. Should we have just pretended that mRNA technology didn't exist, in favor of traditional approaches of making vacc…

I think the FDA's normal process is extremely flawed and would like to see more expedited trails that allow early-opt-in and continually expanding test groups that ramp up in size as efficacy and safety is proven. It's criminal that the FDA has effectively sat on mRNA tech for decades while watching people who could have benefit from it die. The FDA deemed mRNA tech unsafe to give to much smaller groups of people alr…

I'll agree with you there.

The way you worded your proceeding comment made it sound as if you would have preferred the FDA to not approve the Covid mRNA vaccines, as opposed to preferring easier approvals for other mRNA tech in general.

To extend my quip, the people who could benefit from it each have their own little fire and are being systematically ignored.

Re: Delta Variant

#332

Post by murgindrag »

ithkuil wrote: post #258
blindmute wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am unvaccinated and probably will remain so for this particular vaccination. I don't truly believe that the risk of the vaccine outweighs the risk of the virus to me. It's more that I weigh the risk of covid at around zero, and the risk of vaccine at a question mark. I cannot trust the institutions pushing this vaccine at all. At worst, I trust the opposite of what they say about anything politicized. But let's jus…

Thanks. Anecdotally I've noticed that most people around me who refuse the vaccine more or less follow your argument, but you articulated it very well. We humans certainly suffer from omission bias, it was probably safer in our selection environment. Our everyday life is full of cases where we do dangerous stuff which we don't feel as dangerous because, everybody is doing that, since forever, so yeah you know some th…

I don't take issue with your conclusions, but I do with your arguments. I think precision and correctness are important, since a lot of vaccine skepticism comes from people making incorrect arguments.

> 1. I don't trust authorities to pull off a major conspiracy (and hide the data of bad vaccine effects).

I do trust the authorities to be incompetent enough not to collect such data.

> 2. I don't trust governments ability to effectively coordinate among themselves to pull off a conspiracy

I do trust governments to engage in groupthink. That's kind of like the idiot's version of coordinating a conspiracy.

In the process, I trust authorities to "message" and dishonestly manipulate information going out in ways which appear coordinated.

Re: Delta Variant

#333

Post by bamboozled »

omegaworks wrote: post #271
blindmute wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am unvaccinated and probably will remain so for this particular vaccination. I don't truly believe that the risk of the vaccine outweighs the risk of the virus to me. It's more that I weigh the risk of covid at around zero, and the risk of vaccine at a question mark. I cannot trust the institutions pushing this vaccine at all. At worst, I trust the opposite of what they say about anything politicized. But let's jus…

The amount of cognitive dissonance here is intense. >I can only make this decision based on my own research. >Unfortunately I am not qualified to interpret the data meaningfully, You do your own research but admit that you are unqualified to do that research. > and I truly believe that if there was data suggesting that the vaccine was equally dangerous to the virus, it would be suppressed. You believe institutions ar…

No one can deny that it would be very hard, almost impossible at this stage to admit the existence of a problem should one be identified.

If a problem was identified A lot of people would be humiliated and there would be major fallout as many people would no longer trust Governments at all. It would be absolutely unprecedented and unthinkable after over a billion doses administered.

It could almost lead to a type of dystopian anarchy overnight.

I'm not saying there is a conspiracy, but there sure would be some pretty strong incentive to create one if more serious long term effects were discovered.

Re: Delta Variant

#334

Post by passivate »

skadamou wrote: post #218

Without debating the whole article, I found this one excerpt to be somewhat indicative of his writing more broadly: "Unfortunately, I turned out to be right. The short explanation is that the viruses that tend to win do so because they reproduce faster. Such a virus will grow faster inside a person, and will make that person more infectious, faster. It will also kill that person faster." This is a fairly vague statem…

I think there is a base level of knowledge and a higher level of hunch/intuition type thinking that can lead someone to make leaps and lead them to discover something that others might not. I don't think this is that, but I feel its an important part of what makes us progress in science.

Re: Delta Variant

#335

Post by bamboozled »

mindslight wrote: post #262
bamboozled wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for writing this, I'm still on the fence about taking it for this reason, it was rushed and the longer term implications are certainly still not fully understood. Edit: Again with the downvotes, it's a fact . No one has had this vaccine for 3,5 or 10 years. The long term effects cannot be fully understood until such time has lapsed and studies have been completed. Here, the creator of mRNA vaccines discusses t…

You're getting downvoted because your post is the standard antivax trope of "just asking questions", which is ultimately FUD. What you're actually doing is completely discounting possible long term effects from the choice to do nothing. Nobody has been a Covid-19 survivor for 3, 5 or 10 years, nor do we know the big picture epidemiological impact of unchecked Covid for 3, 5, or 10 years. The only data we have is nece…

Maybe neither option is great? Have you ever considered that possibility?

It's funny because your post really offers nothing new, just another opinion of your own.

I've said before, I'm not an anti-vaxxer, I've taken vaccines before and if the Pfizer vaccine proves safe longer term, we know more about reported heart problems in younger males, I won't need to mix and match vaccines and have booster shots and all that type of rot, then yeah, I'll likely participate.

I'm just not prepared to jump right in because Internets tell me they feel it's safe to do so.

What's actually wrong with that? I don't see the issue?

Re: Delta Variant

#336

Post by bamboozled »

aeternum wrote: post #256
blindmute wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am unvaccinated and probably will remain so for this particular vaccination. I don't truly believe that the risk of the vaccine outweighs the risk of the virus to me. It's more that I weigh the risk of covid at around zero, and the risk of vaccine at a question mark. I cannot trust the institutions pushing this vaccine at all. At worst, I trust the opposite of what they say about anything politicized. But let's jus…

One amazing thing about this vaccine is that it is basically open-source. We can look at the genetic code so you know exactly what is going into your body if you choose to take it. This guy does an amazing job of breaking it down in detail: https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/reverse-engineering-source... I agree the CDC has done a terrible job of representing science and establishing trust, but the virus is less polit…

How is it open source?

Re: Delta Variant

#337

Post by mindslight »

bamboozled wrote: post #335
mindslight wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're getting downvoted because your post is the standard antivax trope of "just asking questions", which is ultimately FUD. What you're actually doing is completely discounting possible long term effects from the choice to do nothing. Nobody has been a Covid-19 survivor for 3, 5 or 10 years, nor do we know the big picture epidemiological impact of unchecked Covid for 3, 5, or 10 years. The only data we have is nece…

Maybe neither option is great? Have you ever considered that possibility? It's funny because your post really offers nothing new, just another opinion of your own. I've said before, I'm not an anti-vaxxer, I've taken vaccines before and if the Pfizer vaccine proves safe longer term, we know more about reported heart problems in younger males, I won't need to mix and match vaccines and have booster shots and all that…

I don't know how I've implied that any option was "great" ?

My post is pointing out that your previous framing is discounting the possible effects from doing nothing, while emphasizing the possible effects from doing something. This is not scientific.

In general you seem to be attaching a high weighting to not taking the vaccine, including repeating common logical fallacies. Most likely you've gotten that from the "Internets", so it's fallacious to invoke it as if it's some singular party instructing you to do something. The Internet is generally malicious noise, it's up to you to pull signal out of it.

At the basic level, there is no "all that type of rot". I got two shots, had cold symptoms for a day on the first one, and was otherwise fine. It has allowed me to reduce my Covid precautions substantially, and has drastically increased my quality of life. If there end up being variants that require boosters, then I can make another decision to get those or not.

I wasn't chomping at the bit for the vaccine since it was announced, rather I too figured I'd wait and see what the larger scale effects were. But by the time spring rolled around I had considered 6 months enough time to shake out most unknown unknowns at scale.

Re: Delta Variant

#338

Post by ithkuil »

murgindrag wrote: post #332
ithkuil wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks. Anecdotally I've noticed that most people around me who refuse the vaccine more or less follow your argument, but you articulated it very well. We humans certainly suffer from omission bias, it was probably safer in our selection environment. Our everyday life is full of cases where we do dangerous stuff which we don't feel as dangerous because, everybody is doing that, since forever, so yeah you know some th…

I don't take issue with your conclusions, but I do with your arguments. I think precision and correctness are important, since a lot of vaccine skepticism comes from people making incorrect arguments. > 1. I don't trust authorities to pull off a major conspiracy (and hide the data of bad vaccine effects). I do trust the authorities to be incompetent enough not to collect such data. > 2. I don't trust governments abil…

Groupthink is indeed a real problem, but if you really believe all it takes is groupthink to hide severe side effects (possibly deaths) of vaccines that would compete in magnitude with covid causalities, you should entertain the possibility you're engaging in a groupthink of another polarity.

I mean, sure. Governments have been and will be dishonest and lying and have been and will be again caught red handed. They also have been and will be accidentally right about various things.

If whatever a government says is always the opposite of true, then it would be super easy to have certainties! I wish that were true. Unfortunately I don't think that works that way.

Re: Delta Variant

#340

Post by floxy »

dragontamer wrote: post #104
babyblueblanket wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is highly contagious. But not as much as say, the measles.

COVID19's main issue is that it takes anywhere from 5 to 14 days before you feel symptoms. During this window, it looks like you're still spreading COVID19 around. Therefore: traditional means of preventing spread (ie: staying home from work and/or school) are ineffective. Measles or Ebola (or plenty of other diseases) have a much smaller window of spreading (because you feel sick sooner).

What's the latest on asymptomatic spread for covid-19? Last update I had seen was that this wasn't likely.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

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