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London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

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331–340 of 391 posts

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#331

When did we switch the emphasis from tracking deaths, to tracking infections?

I noticed that too, at some point last summer.

I guess, death numbers weren't growing as expected.

It's a bit like climate warming temperature predictions.

I appreciate it's hard to do forecasts but the media doesn't help selling actual problems to the public by constantly twisting the narrative.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but I think there is now a non-trivial group who are either a) in total denial about the virus or believe it's a conspiracy, b) overwhelmed by news of it and unable/unwilling to process anything new, or c) believe in herd immunity and might even welcome a faster spread on that basis. Arguments about exponentials mean nothing to anyone in any of these buckets— they'll be flaunting a lockdown up until and perh…

I don't know. I would say I'm d) believe that the West cannot and should not enforce a lockdown the same way authoritarian China or Singapore can, and therefore it is doomed to fail. So: * lockdowns are guaranteed not going to eradicate the virus the way it has in China. * lockdowns are guaranteed to crush small businesses and restaurants, creating an L-shaped economic recovery and putting the West at a disadvantage…

Waterloo Region here. Up until the end of August, I was pretty happy with the response where I am, at all three levels of government— it seemed like the policies were basically working and the spread was contained, with new flare-ups presumably being seeded from elsewhere (Toronto, the US probably) and quickly dying out.

And then cases started spiking in September, I suppose due to some combination of back-to-school, lockdown fatigue, increased indoor gatherings, etc. At that point I became extremely unhappy as it became apparent how little the Provincial gov't in particular had taken advantage of the long summer of low cases to build up test and hospital bed capacity, and to make plans for vaccine distribution. The second wave hit and it felt like basically just rewinding to March. This was apparent to everyone and I think it probably became a positive feedback loop as more and more people gave up and had in-person Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but I think there is now a non-trivial group who are either a) in total denial about the virus or believe it's a conspiracy, b) overwhelmed by news of it and unable/unwilling to process anything new, or c) believe in herd immunity and might even welcome a faster spread on that basis. Arguments about exponentials mean nothing to anyone in any of these buckets— they'll be flaunting a lockdown up until and perh…

I'm shocked that many of the comments here are dismissive of the seriousness of the situation. I thought the HN crowd would be more rational.

I'm taking it very seriously. This is a meta-discussion about reasons other people may not be, and how to address that both personally and at a policy level.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#334
post #41

Here is a video filmed in London this Christmas: https://youtu.be/Yz7wJZln6Kw Plenty of people outside. In fact, I would call it lightly crowded, although less than other years. Many people don’t wear masks. It’s not a surprise that transmission has increased. Nevertheless, London looked absolutely beautiful. Not sure if this was worth the risks though.

You could have taken a very similar video in parts of Melbourne during our (successful) lockdown with people sitting at the beach or walking around the parks, it made no difference to the elimination effort. The only major changes I see are far fewer people wearing masks and being nighttime (if UV has any benefit). Outdoor transmission is very low risk.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good news, we did.

Yeah and it's still a value call with significant part of the population on both sides. It's easy to be for lockdowns when you're in privileged position in the society but if you talk to people not so fortunate when it comes to income, education and perspectives in life you will see why they are so often for letting the pandemic run it course. It's because lockdowns take the very little they had in their life be it w…

You complained that people need to "at least look at the cost", and now you're mad that people have looked at it and found the answers to be wildly in favor of lockdowns. It is an unbelievable "tone of superiority" to keep ranting about everyone else not having thought as deeply as you, and imagining yourself as the only person who knows any low income people.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#336
post #231
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the beginning of this pandemic, I watched a 2-3 min video of a Turin hospital (back when Italy was the epicenter in the west) of people silently choking to death in their ventilators. It was absolutely fucking eerie and insane and every time I think of doing something risky, I think about the sound in that video. Unfortunately in this context, it is illegal to film people in a hospital. I think that's a fair rule…

Obvious panic doesn't help much, but I was sort of advocating a "Do you want to execute grandma?"-style advert for people who think it's a bit of a laugh.

Reminds me of this seatbelt advert (warning: graphic) https://youtu.be/mKHY69AFstE

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#337
post #41

Here is a video filmed in London this Christmas: https://youtu.be/Yz7wJZln6Kw Plenty of people outside. In fact, I would call it lightly crowded, although less than other years. Many people don’t wear masks. It’s not a surprise that transmission has increased. Nevertheless, London looked absolutely beautiful. Not sure if this was worth the risks though.

For comparison, here's a video filmed on Christmas day.

https://youtu.be/3RlQFy9WaBE

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#338
post #57
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are probably living in two different worlds. There is reality and there is the world you live in. In real world it is not the restrictions that save lives, it is people following them. If people ignore restrictions it doesn't matter whether they were or were not tightened. Actually, if people were sane we would not need restrictions. Everybody would wash their hands, avoid touching their face, wear their mask prop…

I am afraid I don't understand your point, are you saying London did in fact loosen it's lockdown over Christmas?

What matters is if people follow lockdowns. Are people getting fatigued? Starting to resist where before they complied?

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

22k dead in Florida. I guess if nobody in your family is included in that figure, it's all peachy.

Funny, I didn't see anyone calling to shutter the economy when my dad was dying of cancer. Similarly, I didn't see any great outrage this summer when my uncle died of a heart attack. Death is tragic, but it's also a fact of life. A lot of people have fallen into the trap of making fear a virtue this year.

> Funny, I didn't see anyone calling to shutter the economy when my dad was dying of cancer. Similarly, I didn't see any great outrage this summer when my uncle died of a heart attack.

Don't be obtuse. Neither of those things are contagious.

> Death is tragic, but it's also a fact of life.

Death is a fact of life. But nobody wants you around if you have a contagious deadly disease.

> A lot of people have fallen into the trap of making fear a virtue this year.

The opposite is true. Those who've made fear a virtue have survived and helped keep the elders in their family alive.

It's the brave idiots who don't wear masks who're killing the old people. I guess without your dad and uncle, you have nobody old left that you care about.

Re: London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS briefing

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny, I didn't see anyone calling to shutter the economy when my dad was dying of cancer. Similarly, I didn't see any great outrage this summer when my uncle died of a heart attack. Death is tragic, but it's also a fact of life. A lot of people have fallen into the trap of making fear a virtue this year.

> Funny, I didn't see anyone calling to shutter the economy when my dad was dying of cancer. Similarly, I didn't see any great outrage this summer when my uncle died of a heart attack. Don't be obtuse. Neither of those things are contagious. > Death is tragic, but it's also a fact of life. Death is a fact of life. But nobody wants you around if you have a contagious deadly disease. > A lot of people have fallen into…

> I guess without your dad and uncle, you have nobody old left that you care about.

My 98 year old grandma was the first person in my family to catch the coronavirus. Since then I've an aunt and uncle both catch it. All three have recovered just fine, as have my five or six neighbors who also caught it, and nearly everyone in my broader community who has caught it.

But yes, me and my cold dead heart killing old people. I'd personally much rather that than the reality of my grandma being locked in her nursing home without visitors for the past nine months and the whole place still caught the virus. Maybe now with the vaccine coming out she can finally have some comfort in her life instead of sobbing and threatening to run away every day.

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