When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet • Hacker News Board

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#331

Post by ohhnoodont » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 3:55 AM UTC

iguanayou wrote: post #142

jmiskovic wrote: post #66

On same note, developing VR from inside is incredible and it quickly turned into my #1 hobby. At first you are surrounded with blank space, then you slowly fill it out with whatever reality rules you can think of. I went with code-only approach (no binary assets) and built a primitive development environment that works in VR. Now I have a neat little virtual shed with different experiments and demo projects. Geometri…

Or you could build actual things in an actual shed? This is the same impulse that drives people to build furniture, boats, and model train layouts. To me, the real physical objects are much more fulfilling.

That's an awkward opinion to have on hackernews. Like, why write software when you can't touch it? Go engineer real things: buildings, bridges, cars!

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Post by gwbas1c » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 4:05 AM UTC

VR is like listening to music is surround sound: There's a small, dedicated market that will eat it up, but most people just don't care.

I love listening to music in surround, but it requires time to fill a room with speakers placed just right.

A few years ago I tried my friend's VR setup. He had to set up a room just right, and the space had to be completely empty or you'd smack into things. I even smacked into a wall where some sensor wasn't calibrated right.

Even the economics of dedicating a large, empty space for VR means it's mostly for "rich" people. You could be middle class in the 'burbs and pull the car out of the garage to do VR... But what if you live in a tiny SF or NYC apartment? What about even denser living conditions outside of the US?

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Post by jonas21 » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 4:08 AM UTC

vtange wrote: post #328

pbourke wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t gaming a larger industry than the movies, driven largely by consoles? Seems like gaming had its iPhone moment a generation ago. Edit: gaming is larger than the movie and music industries combined

Yes it's true it's larger than books and movies, but games in the end just compete with other forms of media for customers' entertainment dollars. Unless we can come up with a use case for VR beyond gaming and fulfilling escapist fantasies. It will likely just be another contender for entertainment dollars. Smartphones on the other hand essentially made it possible to do anything a general desktop pc could do for peo…

And the ultimate use case of VR is that you will be able to be "on the go" without ever leaving your chair -- in a form that's good enough that it doesn't feel inferior to being in person.

It's sort of the inverse of the smartphone use case.

Is it there yet? Of course not. But if/when it does get there... that's a much more compelling use case than a smartphone.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Post by nbardy » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 4:19 AM UTC

SulfurHexaFluri wrote: post #323

dougmwne wrote: post #89

I very much think that folks on HN are jaded by the long wait and the unfulfilled promises of VR. I recently picked up a Quest 2 as my first VR headset and I am blown away and convinced it is the future. The thing is, I also recognize that while it is already an incredible achievement, it's still probably 5-20 years from hitting its iPhone moment. By then, my initial excitement will have gone away and I'll have tired…

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

> Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited.

56% of US households have at least one gaming console.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Post by laser » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 4:25 AM UTC

zmmmmm wrote: post #321

causality0 wrote: post #290

VR is a magical experience but for me it just isn't worth the hassle. VR is going to have to get to the "pick up and play within 60 seconds" level of convenience before I spend any more money on it. Getting my glasses to fit correctly in the headset is a pain. Adjusting the focus when I put it on is a pain. Software that tells me everything is working fine when I have no picture is a pain. Setting up the play area ev…

If you haven't used a Quest headset then you should update your thoughts after doing that. It pretty much solves the points you raise.

That hasn't been my experience. It's directionally closer than the last generation of headsets, but my oculus quest mostly just sits around because pickup and use is still not the reality. In another few years I'm hoping we get to smart-phone level ease of use, that + superior capabilities will kick-off the real "bend in the curve" in VR or AR growth.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#336

Post by SulfurHexaFluri » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 4:37 AM UTC

nbardy wrote: post #334

SulfurHexaFluri wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

> Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. 56% of US households have at least one gaming console.

81% of Americans use a smart phone. Likely almost every house in the country contains one and usually many smartphones.

Likely no consumer product will reach the success of the smartphone.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Post by dwighttk » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 4:41 AM UTC

VR won’t take off until they solve the movement problem.

Every game I’ve played uses some hack to make up for the fact that I can’t just walk anywhere I want in the world they are presenting.

I don’t think this is a solvable problem, but I could be wrong. Occasionally a game will do a very good job disguising this problem, but I’ve never seen anything that hints at a solution.

We're getting the bottoms of our toes wet and calling it immersion.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

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Post by scpedicini » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 4:45 AM UTC

dwighttk wrote: post #337

VR won’t take off until they solve the movement problem. Every game I’ve played uses some hack to make up for the fact that I can’t just walk anywhere I want in the world they are presenting. I don’t think this is a solvable problem, but I could be wrong. Occasionally a game will do a very good job disguising this problem, but I’ve never seen anything that hints at a solution. We're getting the bottoms of our toes we…

I really wish that you could take an inside-out tracker virtual reality system like the oculus quest outside and then draw boundaries in your backyard. Can you imagine being able to use an entire soccer field or a basketball court?

Although even if this was technically possible, it would likely open up companies to massive potential safety issue related lawsuits.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#339

Post by awinter-py » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 4:47 AM UTC

Animats wrote: post #149

I should have made a bet like that with the "thought leader" who threatened to ban me from his blog after I said VR looked to be the next 3D TV. The problem isn't the cost. It's that moving around while wearing VR headgear is only safe in either customized environments, like the Star Wars location based entertainment system, or when movement is in a small area, like Beat Saber. Which is why Beat Saber is the #1 VR ga…

yes pokemon is 1000% the consumer XR killer app so far. People who have a conception of 'what is VR for' that doesn't make space for niantic are probably looking at it wrong.

the cheap hardware is coming, though not at that price level for a while. I think tilt5's board game AR is dropping sometime this year.

Re: When will virtual reality take off? The $100 bet

#340

Post by ekianjo » Thu, Dec 17, 2020, 4:48 AM UTC

pbourke wrote: post #325

SulfurHexaFluri wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will never be an iphone moment because its not a product useful to literally every person. Gaming consoles and PCs have not had an "iphone moment" after decades because their market is and always will be limited. I don't see why people are so obsessed with instant and explosive growth. Almost no recreational product has seen this kind of growth and they have all continued to exist just fine. VR is ready today i…

Isn’t gaming a larger industry than the movies, driven largely by consoles? Seems like gaming had its iPhone moment a generation ago. Edit: gaming is larger than the movie and music industries combined

> Isn’t gaming a larger industry than the movies,

nowhere near comparable in reach. Way more people watch movies than play games. Since movies are typically cheaper to consume, it appears as a smaller industry while it is actually bigger in reach.