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Rents are dropping across the US

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Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lived in San Mateo for a few years, right off 92 between 101 and 280 on the top of the hill. It was an ideal spot for 92/280 access. But while it was equidistant from everything of interest on a map, traffic was often so impossibly bad that everything was equally prohibitively inconvenient to reach. And forget about parking in SF after you've managed to get there, not on any busy night everyone else is out on too.…

> Maybe via Caltrain+BART@Millbrae? That wasn't easy from my place, our location was very car-optimized. Why isn’t the train a more attractive option? You’re in one of the very few areas in the US with even one train line, and you still don’t sound like you’re very keen on it. Surely the train is a fine option from San Mateo right into central SF? What’s stopping you?

Caltrain summary:

- no wifi

- relatively expensive for a return trip

- 4th and King terminal is nowhere. You still have to get to FiDi or somewhere

- runs hourly after a certain time, ending at midnite (pre-corona.)

- if you forget/can't prove you paid, $200+fine and interrogation

There is garage parking downtown after 6 pm, but that's $20+.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe via Caltrain+BART@Millbrae? That wasn't easy from my place, our location was very car-optimized. Why isn’t the train a more attractive option? You’re in one of the very few areas in the US with even one train line, and you still don’t sound like you’re very keen on it. Surely the train is a fine option from San Mateo right into central SF? What’s stopping you?

Caltrain summary: - no wifi - relatively expensive for a return trip - 4th and King terminal is nowhere. You still have to get to FiDi or somewhere - runs hourly after a certain time, ending at midnite (pre-corona.) - if you forget/can't prove you paid, $200+fine and interrogation There is garage parking downtown after 6 pm, but that's $20+.

> - if you forget/can't prove you paid, $200+fine and interrogation

This happened to me the first time I took BART to Millbrae from the Glen Park station. I did some transfer that I mistakenly thought was covered by my ticket but apparently wasn't. Was treated like a scumbag criminal by a BART cop on a power trip getting in my face and shoving me around, ended up with a stiff fine to boot.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#333
post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kids change mindset. Kids love yards. They love the little creek that runs past. I love the safety. Small neighborhood, we all know each other and look out for the kids that run around playing.

The problem with suburbs is they don’t allow kids to get any amount of independence because they must be driven everywhere by their parents. I moved from a US suburb to a small city in Europe when I was 12 and it was liberating. I could suddenly walk or bike downtown alone.

"Suburb" is such a broad term so difficult to compare what it means.

Your description sounds the exact opposite of suburb to my experience.

A suburb area is optimal for young kids as they can go everywhere. Parks, playgrounds, forest trails, movie theaters, everything is within a 10 minute walk or 3-5 minute bike ride. That's what the suburb experience means to me and the life we live right now.

In a city (SF/NYC) I couldn't possibly let my <10yr old go anywhere without extreme supervision given the crime, drugs, abusive cops, prostitution, crazy homeless, etc in every corner.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kids change mindset. Kids love yards. They love the little creek that runs past. I love the safety. Small neighborhood, we all know each other and look out for the kids that run around playing.

I see this expressed a lot, but from my personal experience growing up in a small rural community, I always wished I lived in the city. Maybe it’s just a “grass is always greener” thing, but I always wonder why people assume kids really want the suburban life.

Because it's what is pictured in almost every movie/TV show ?

Crime stuff in cities, nice family comedies in the suburbs.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe this sounds strange, but I think there is also a category of people who prefer suburbs or exurbs and are really bitter that the pendulum has swung back to cities in the last ~20 years. They are really eager to see a trend out of small amounts of data. Or proclaim urban life dead, now and forever. I personally feel strongly in the other direction. We had the infamous "white flight" and car-centric communities an…

> Maybe this sounds strange, but I think there is also a category of people who prefer suburbs or exurbs and are really bitter that the pendulum has swung back to cities in the last ~20 years. Yeah, that would be me. Paying a King's ransom to rent a hovel in an urban desert isn't my idea of fun. It would probably be OK if I did 100% of my work on a laptop, but with hobbies / side-hustles that involve physical equipme…

This hits a nerve for me, too. I didn't particularly mind or even notice the constraints when I was renting closer to the city. But for the equivalent rent and at the cost of a longer commute, I traded up to renting a house in the suburbs a few years ago.

It's been so freeing. If I'm working on something late or at odd hours, I don't have even have to think about the the noise impact on my neighbors[1]. Same with music - if I want to enjoy it, I just can. Simple as that; no more mental triage list of precisely where I listen to it so as to have the least impact on the inhabitants of any adjoining units, scrambling if the song changes to one with far more bass and I need to suddenly adjust things, or copping out of those mental gymnastics by settling with headphones after having already had them on for most of the day at work.

I've also got similar hobbies/interests/side-hustles as you, that involve accumulation and use of physical equipment and tooling. I've been able to really dive into those areas far more since I don't have to be hyper aware of spacial efficiency. Without even being fully cognizant of it, I had spent years minimizing how much attention I gave to those areas of interests while maximizing towards things that either had minimal physical prerequisites or leveraged things that both wouldn't cause a disturbance to the others living adjacent to me while also being multi-purpose enough to justify making space for it.

Before moving, it didn't really both me as I wasn't particularly cognizant of the many mental micro-checks I had accumulated organically over the years to ensure my behavior aligned with the noise, space, and practicality constraints of urban living. But now that I've been able to let those go, there's no way I could go back unless I somehow hit it big and suddenly become able to afford the astronomical price of urban living with the suburban luxuries of space and isolation. Anything short of that would now just leave me feeling constantly stifled and constrained at home.

[1] My neighborhood is packed in pretty tightly on small lots, so still have to be somewhat conscientious of noise impact on neighbors. But sound is sufficiently buffered that I can do pretty much whatever I like whenever I like without having to even think about whether doing so would disturb the neighbors. It's worlds apart from urban living, where SFHs are rare and you're more than likely to have at least one adjoining wall with a neighbor, and potentially have five "outer" walls all adjoining different neighbors.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#336
post #123

If I were a renter right now and in an urban area with a lease renewal coming due, I'd 1000% call the mgmt co's bluff. Context: my firm provides back office services to 50k+ rental units across the nation and unless you're in some oddly hot market, most mgmt companies currently are holding their breath that their renters don't say anything and renew at the same price. If you're reasonable, you can easily negotiate a…

We just canceled our lease two weeks ago. We had a large apartment in one of the new high-rises in Downtown LA. The last offer was 3 months free and 2 parking spaces free if we stay for 12 month lease, which comes to 34% discount on the rent including parking. Other buildings are offering by default two months rent-free and they will pay the movers if you decide to move in. DTLA is a special place as it has plenty of…

> We just canceled our lease two weeks ago. We had a large apartment in one of the new high-rises in Downtown LA.

> The last offer was 3 months free and 2 parking spaces free if we stay for 12 month lease, which comes to 34% discount on the rent including parking.

That's weird how everytime I discover something new about "free market" in USA, I'm glad to live in Europe.

Having to negotiate your lease like you would with a bag of apples seems insane to me since rents are regulated as are drops or increases in an occurring lease.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#337
post #98

If I were a renter right now and in an urban area with a lease renewal coming due, I'd 1000% call the mgmt co's bluff. Context: my firm provides back office services to 50k+ rental units across the nation and unless you're in some oddly hot market, most mgmt companies currently are holding their breath that their renters don't say anything and renew at the same price. If you're reasonable, you can easily negotiate a…

Thanks for the insight. Any perspective on NYC specifically?

NY is a weird place where you can see same vacant retail spaces sit on teh market for years and years with landlords unwilling to budge doe to perceived loss of paper building value.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> I can afford to buy milk that costs 10x as it does right now, but I wouldn't actually pay that because I have no reason to when cheap milk still exists. You can afford to not drink milk but you can't afford to not have a roof over your head. Becoming homeless is not an option so people get pushed to living in older smaller flat away from the city or sharing with strangers.

Okay fine, I could say, "I could afford to pay 2x for groceries in general, but I won't, because why would I when I don't have to?" Same principle for rent. It's not quite about what people can afford, it's about what they feel they have to pay (and how much they can reasonably afford is one factor in that).

Rent is precisely about what people can afford. It's no accident that rent is around 50% of local income, in all cities across the developed world.

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay fine, I could say, "I could afford to pay 2x for groceries in general, but I won't, because why would I when I don't have to?" Same principle for rent. It's not quite about what people can afford, it's about what they feel they have to pay (and how much they can reasonably afford is one factor in that).

Rent is precisely about what people can afford. It's no accident that rent is around 50% of local income, in all cities across the developed world.

No, rent is about supply and demand. What people can afford -- how much money they have -- is a component of demand, but supply also matters.

If you look at countries that restrict supply less than the US, you'll notice that rent doesn't go to such high extremes in booming cities. For example, in Germany, the most expensive cities, the ones that have been booming, have average rents that are around 40-50% higher than the national average. In contrast, in the US, the most expensive cities have average rents easily double or more the national average. Sometimes even getting close to 3x.

You could also look at NYC vs Tokyo. Japan has much looser restrictions on housing supply and it shows here. NYC has 50% higher salaries, but rent isn't 50% higher, instead it's nearly 3x as high: https://versus.com/en/new-york-vs-tokyo

Re: Rents are dropping across the US

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rent is precisely about what people can afford. It's no accident that rent is around 50% of local income, in all cities across the developed world.

No, rent is about supply and demand. What people can afford -- how much money they have -- is a component of demand, but supply also matters. If you look at countries that restrict supply less than the US, you'll notice that rent doesn't go to such high extremes in booming cities. For example, in Germany, the most expensive cities, the ones that have been booming, have average rents that are around 40-50% higher than…

Agreed on supply. Might want to look at the 75% of household disposable income or exclude non-workers. Only the best earners get to live in the city.

Germany is a relatively equal country. A worker in the capital doesn't get double salary as the same position in the countryside. In fact there is hardly anybody who earns triple as of anybody else in the country.

The US is extremely unequal. A position in NYC can pay numerous times than a similar position in the countryside, then even for a given position in NYC two companies across the same street can vary from simple to double. Rent in NYC is naturally triple to reflect the triple in income.

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