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I don't think necessarily aids++, but speculating about long term effects is not pointless, or unreasonable. https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2010/09/02/sars...
As with any viral pneumonia
A garden snake and a cobra are both snakes. Belonging to the same category says nothing about the potency of their bite. We have no idea what kind of snake this is yet.
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Or truly random sampling that includes appropriate proportions of sub groups, e.g, socioeconomic status etc. Otherwise you have to know on all of the doors. But it's still a lot: for a 95% confidence level and 2% margin of error, for NYC you would need to test about 2,400 people. Assuming a response rate of 10%, you need to knock on 24,000 doors.
Wouldn't the ability to refuse taking the test introduce bias? i.e. the 10% that do take it still may not be representative of the entire population. Likely better than the grocery store sample, but still not ideal
There's also literature that suggests that you don't discard outlier values in the actual responders as they may help approximate the non-responder population, i.e., the non-outliers represent typical responders while outliers are more likely to represent non-responders [1]
[0]https://www.warc.com/content/paywall/article/jar/research_no...
[1] https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186...
Another datapoint suggesting the death rate of this virus is within 0.5%.
Yes, but the age is a 10x factor, os CFR would be much different in Nigeria (average age is about 19) and Italy (average age 45). We have two good petri dishes: USS Theodore Roosevelt - 600 cases out of 4800. 5 sick, one dead (41 years old). which means hospitalisation is at 0.83% and CFR is 0.016% (1% dead or in hospital). Not idea what is the average age, probably around 30-35. Diamond Princess: 700 of 3711. CFR 1.…
0: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/arts/television/20jens.ht...
1: https://archive.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=15334
2: https://mashable.com/2016/06/23/what-its-really-like-to-live...
> In his press conference today, Governor Cuomo revealed the preliminary results of a first-phase antibody test that surveyed 3,000 New Yorkers over two days in 19 counties at 40 locations that included grocery and big-box stores. The sample suggests that 13.9% of New York State residents have the antibodies, meaning they had the virus at one point and recovered. Of the regions tested–Long Island, NYC, Westchester/Ro…
If this study is accurate, then 1.8 million NYC resident are infected. So 15 411 deaths (as of today, including 5 121 probable deaths) suggests COVID-19 has a fatality rate of MINIMUM 0.9% which is in line with previous estimates (between 0.5 and 1.6%) and this is MINIMUM 9 times more fatal than the flu (0.1%). Edited to add "MINIMUM", as there is a lag between case detection and death (I should have known better to…
these comparisons to the flu usually don't seem to factor in transmissibility. seems you cant leave that out of the equation and only look at death rate
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Sweden didn't lockdown and might have herd immunity in weeks, according to their chief epidemiologist. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the long run. “In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re already seeing the effect of herd immunity and in a few weeks’ time we’ll see even more of the effects of that. And in the rest of the country, the situation…
I would not really call the Swedish model successful - Czech Republic and Sweden have both about 10 million inhabitants. Things moved pretty quickly to pretty comprehensive lockdown here in Czech Republic, including mandatory mask wearing. So far this seem to be effective, with combined death toll currently at 210. In comparison Sweden has almost 10x as much, 2010 dead. Looks like if more has been done less people co…
Those countries that lock down and stop a first wave with only a few percent infected are basically betting on the arrival of effective treatment or effective containment.
Those that don’t are betting that containment is impossible and effective treatments and vaccines are a year out at least.
It’s impossible to say which scenario is right but I know I’d place my bet the same as the Swedish state epidemiologist.
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What's weird is that the Stanford study was suggested to have exaggerated the results, since those who suspected themselves as having the virus at one time were more likely to volunteer (allegedly). However, those results were nowhere near as big as this (I think like 2%-3% versus the 20%!)
NYC and standord are markably different scenarios. But in each case the percentage of baseline infection to deaths is similarish, even though the percent compared to total pop is quite different.
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Even with worst-case scenario of bias, this is still extremely good news. My worry was always with super spreaders who refuse to isolate but the data is suggesting that those spreaders will still soon achieve herd immunity among themselves. As long as the rest of the society behaves we will still hit zero cases relatively quickly. (which wasn't always clear to me before since I initially predicted that this will take…
What? All of these numbers are inline with what experts have been saying and modeling for more than a month. We will be dealing with this for at least another year. We will cycle through policy to loosen up and close back down a little. In the best case for NYC they are 1/4th of the way to herd immunity in numbers. With the drop in transmissions, this might be 1/8th of the way in terms of time. There will be more dea…
The CDC reports that flu has an IFR of ~.13% in the US (61,000 deaths out of 45 million cases). That makes 0.5% roughly 3.3 times worse, not 10.
Also, herd immunity does not require 100% having positive antibodies, it will show an effect on Ro starting around 65%.
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I was astonished by your 1/1000 figure and had to look it up... If anything, its too low . 15k deaths (proven+probable) in 8M people is almost 2/1000. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
that's crazy to me, what are the demographics of NYC? Is the population more susceptible to dying of Covid19 somehow? I still can't get my head around why NY has suffered so disproportionately.
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What's interesting is if you look at the rest of NY numbers (-NYC,LI,Westchester). That has infection at 3.6%. Santa Clara was estimated to be 3% and LA county 4%. So it's in strong agreement with those areas.
But the number of deaths does not agree.