331–340 of 499 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The incubation period is not 25-30 days. The mean incubation period is 5-6 days, range 1-14 days. Source: Page 12, paragraph 2. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...
retracted based on feedback
China started with single digit cases, which then spread countrywide with tens of thousands of cases and many deaths. They quarantined cities, built 1000 bed hospitals in 10 days. And now after about 2 months they are seeing a slowdown. Why would this exact scenario regarding growth in the number of cases not play out in the US? The only difference is smaller population, but cities are dense here too. However, unlike…
> I don't think US and other countries will be able to quarantine entire cities. Italy quarantined entire towns.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am always surprised when software engineers have such strong opinions on monetary policy. Black and white statements like "There is nothing the Fed can do revive the economy from the Corona virus" aren't the best for macroeconomics discussions that rely on imperfect information and multiple related variables. Your wording makes it sound like you know more about macro than the best minds in monetary policy.
Software engineers are uniquely qualified to analyze supply chains and supply chain problems. In this case, technical analysis looks a whole lot different than the chicken bone divination stuff you see with thinkorswim or other trading platforms...
You’re going to have to qualify that. I’ve been doing this shit for thirty years, including writing logistics and other supply chain software. Do not prioritize my opinion just because I write software; prioritize the opinions of, oh I don’t know, maybe COOs? The buyer for electronic parts at my employer? Anyone, anyone but software engineers so arrogant that they think they have an opinion worthy of listening simply because... hell, I can’t even guess why a software engineer would think that.
We're basically running out of tools to combat an actual financial crisis. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/liquiditytrap.asp
It can go negative, or Fed can do another round of QE, there are plenty of tools. The real question is whether the deficit can grow indefinitely without consequences, and if this is a moral hazard (e.g. no risk priced in borrowing).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
People keep saying that responses are irrational but we know next to nothing about this virus. We don’t have a firm understanding of how deadly it is, how long it takes to incubate, how easily it can be spread, or what long term damage it could do to people who recover. There are reports of kidney damage and damage to fertility among men who have recovered. Are those true? We don’t know. We have no idea. The rational…
No, we know quite a bit about it at this point. The incubation period can range from 1-14 days but is 5 days on average[1][2]. The virus spreads through physical contact with commonly touched surfaces and through the air via droplets of saliva or mucus[2]. The deadliness of the disease is also becoming clear as time progresses. The current fatality rate is ~3% (likely overestimated) and most (almost all) deaths are e…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Software engineers are uniquely qualified to analyze supply chains and supply chain problems. In this case, technical analysis looks a whole lot different than the chicken bone divination stuff you see with thinkorswim or other trading platforms...
Software engineers are uniquely qualified to analyze supply chains and supply chain problems. You’re going to have to qualify that. I’ve been doing this shit for thirty years, including writing logistics and other supply chain software. Do not prioritize my opinion just because I write software; prioritize the opinions of, oh I don’t know, maybe COOs? The buyer for electronic parts at my employer? Anyone, anyone but…
I like how you guys are pouring free money into the financial system while still asking $3000 if an uninsured person needs to be tested.
1 - The Q1 supply shock is going to be a temporary thing. They'll recover alright after causing some companies to miss their Q1 earnings. If this was the only effect, we would recover just fine here later this year, but...
2 - Coronavirus is just getting started in the US and Europe. If it spreads widely, and unabated, then the those countries will be forced to enact school closures, business closures, etc, which will cause a massive demand shock.
3 - Demand shock will tank airlines, cruises, restaurants, malls, etc. Basically anything that requires groups of people to make money.
4 - Eventually, demand shock will hit corporate balance sheets in a big way. Many corporations (especially in the energy industry) are overloaded with debt [1]. If this goes on long enough, then those companies will go bankrupt.
5 - If enough companies default on their debt simultaneously, then derivatives on corporate debt (defaults) will cause a systemic crisis again [2].
There's no guarantee that this will happen, but if it does it's going to make 2008 look like a joke by comparison.
If it does, we need to do the right thing this time: wind down the banks and let them fail.
For the downvoters:
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/01/opinion/the-next-financia...
[2] https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-blast-from-a-financial-cri...