Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen' • Hacker News Board

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#331

Post by jedberg » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:31 PM UTC

_red wrote: post #271

jsolson wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may not be getting in that car, but I certainly will. After all, every driver on the road today is an incomprehensible black box where not only do we not know the parameters, we don't even know the function they're parameterizing. Every instance functions differently, and our testing procedures have woefully low coverage.

how do you see insurance working? why would drivers be responsible to have insurance when the car is completely controlled by bigcorp programmers?

I have to have insurance now, even though a lot of the functions of my car are controlled by their software.

Remember when the Toyota had that problem of the accelerator "getting stuck" because the software didn't disengage? Initially the owners' insurances were paying out, until it happened enough that they were able to prove it was Toyota's fault, and then Toyota had to pay them back.

I imagine in a self driving world it would work the same way. You get insurance, the car has a crash, your insurance and the manufacturer fight out whose fault it is.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#332

Post by erik_seaberg » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:33 PM UTC

maxerickson wrote: post #145

lostlogin wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most of the value is in taxi services I’m imagining how gross a taxi would be that doesn’t have a driver to provide passengers a low level of behaviour moderation.

It'll probably just be smooth, hard plastic.

BART went with vinyl because the riders were really uncomfortable with the old wool ones: https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2012/04/how-bart-fina...

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#333

Post by camjohnson26 » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:34 PM UTC

notatoad wrote: post #325

Rhinobird wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

all fun and games until some jack-ass spoofs the GPS and moves a road 20 feet to the left. https://www.wired.com/2012/07/drone-hijacking/

People in this thread are way too hung up on the "what if cars get attacked" problem. Just because you can't solve every problem, doesn't mean you can't have a usable product. Cars today don't have any defense against people dropping bricks or pouring paint off an overpass, but somehow the system still works.

They do actually, the humans driving the car can respond to a threat that an autonomous car would have to be programmed to avoid

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#334

Post by krawakoliz » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:35 PM UTC

Booktrope wrote: post #111

Or perhaps, VW exec hopes full self-driving cars may never happen, because it would imply a fleet approach where transportation would be a service instead of cars being a prized possession. That, of course, would mean far less cars. So don't expect a traditional car manufacturer to lead the way. This is incidentally one reason for Tesla's huge market value. The company actually has a plan to transition from individua…

> O r perhaps, VW exec hopes full self-driving cars may never happen, because it would imply a fleet approach where transportation would be a service instead of cars being a prized possession.

Why on earth would anyone use this over public transit? That would be a hugely expensive way to travel.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#335

Post by junipertea » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:35 PM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #78

rgbrenner wrote: post #18

Since when has VW been at the forefront of self driving cars? Is there a reason their insight would be especially accurate? This just reflects VWs ideas to accomplish the goal... ie: they have none. Let me know when Google says it's not possible.

Apple is in the top tier of self driving cars though. And since he recently worked there I am sure he knows quite a bit about where the industry is at.

Apple was dead last in the last self driving report in California. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/apple-s-a...

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#336

Post by tasty_freeze » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:37 PM UTC

tripa wrote: post #276

mavhc wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the point though, the Waymo car doesn't rely on gps, it's has HD maps on board. Plus is has dead reckoning because it's touching the ground, so it knows where it's moving.

Not sure I get your point. Having atom-resolution maps doesn't help a bit it you don't know where on it you are.

That isn't true. There were car navigation devices that predated non-military GPS. They used inertial sensors to understand the car's acceleration and turning, and used on-board maps to correct for the inevitable drift. The car made a 90 degree turn onto a side street but the map indicated that road was 30 feet ahead, it would reset its position to be 30 feet from where it thought it was.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#337

Post by lsc » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:39 PM UTC

_red wrote: post #271

jsolson wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may not be getting in that car, but I certainly will. After all, every driver on the road today is an incomprehensible black box where not only do we not know the parameters, we don't even know the function they're parameterizing. Every instance functions differently, and our testing procedures have woefully low coverage.

how do you see insurance working? why would drivers be responsible to have insurance when the car is completely controlled by bigcorp programmers?

Seems like it would mostly be the manufacturers that would have to insure the cars, at least for the expensive part (liability)

For me? I'm a self-driving skeptic, but... if the manufacturer was willing to properly insure it, (I mean, a reasonable amount of insurance, at least a statistical life worth) I'd ride in the thing. I think that's an honest signal.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#338

Post by siscia » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:39 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

Wouldn't be simpler to just develop smaller trains?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#339

Post by m463 » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:39 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

I agree.

new technologies are over-estimated in the short term, and under-estimated in the long term.

Decades ago our computers were "soon" to be voice controlled, listening to our speech and doing our bidding. That was a big load of hype. However, over time and below the radar it became true as computers first answered phones, then took limited commands in cars and smartphones and now it is basically true (without all the hype).

Also, I wonder if these kinds of comments risk becoming

"I think there is a world market for about five computers."

or

"640K of memory should be enough for anybody."

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#340

Post by ericd » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 10:39 PM UTC

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #186

URSpider94 wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s basically a virtual tandem semi. The presumption is that you are delegating command and control to the lead vehicle, and there is bidirectional communication between the lead and follow vehicles.

Well, why don't we go a step further then and physically connect the vehicles? Maybe we can also make them longer and fit more passengers? And we could optimize the rolling friction, replace rubber on tarmac with something better like steel on steel, and use some sort of tracks to provide the sideways forces?

You jest, but I'd love it if we could automatically group cars into physically connected trains for long distance travel, and have them automatically split off when they approach their destination. Maybe there's some way to do that with rails, carrying peoples' cars, but not sure if the efficiency gain is worth the increased complexity of including another set of wheels/motors/etc, and making the automated separation/joining work with all of that.