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Starship Prototype Unveiled

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Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#331
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RD-58MF - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RD-58 - uses kerosene (or syntin?) and has Isp of 372 s. Methane, which is cryogenic and less dense, ought to deliver more? Otherwise bigger tanks and operational issues will eat out the benefits.

You can raise the Isp of any vacuum engine by using a bigger nozzle. The RD-58MF is a small engine and there's room for a relatively huge nozzle. That's not true for big engines. For example, Merlin vacuum has a 1:165 expansion ratio. The RD-58MF has a 1:500 ratio. The Wikipedia article for the RD-58 family shows the increase in Isp from various expansion ratios. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RD-58

Right. There is however an argument that the smaller total impulse a stage does (RD-58 is used for upper stages, where the stage mass is closer to the stage payload), the smaller the relative mass of fuel+engine of that stage is, and so the fixed mass of the bigger nozzle added to the stage costs more, in Tsiolkovsky equation, that the mass for the bigger stage. Going further, we can argue that for larger stages it's beneficial to spend some mass on nozzle, because that mass is used for larger impulse provided by the stage.

Interesting that using http://rocketworkbench.sourceforge.net/equil.phtml I couldn't get declared Isp (380) for methane-LOX for reasonable nozzle expansion ratios. Maybe the model is too approximate...

Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#332
I'm slightly reminded of Sea Dragon[1]. That is, using fairly standard steal construction has the possibility to decrease costs even if it increases the net weight of the vehicle simply because it's so much easier to work with and cheaper than minimum weight high tech alloys. Also, because both are quite big though Elon's ship isn't as huge as Sea Dragon was proposed as being.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Dragon_(rocket)

Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by Handle? Steel won't melt at 300-400 Celsius but "handling" those temperatures for 10 minutes will change the properties of the material, possibly by a lot, so you don't need "melting" for structural collapse (Twin Towers style). As the GP says, if you put cold rolled steel, which has an elastic yield strength of >1500 MPa, at 300-400 Celsius, then it is only a matter of time (30-120 min) till the…

Re-entry will take something on the order of 10m or less. Even the space shuttle only took 30 minutes while flying like a plane. There will be no circumstances where the ship is going to be subjected to that amount of heat for 30-120 minutes. > or the steel isn't reaching temperatures over 250 Celsius That might be the case. The space shuttle had an aluminum structure that would fail at 175C, and now we have 40 years…

Also I notice Cr-Steel's elastic yield strength at 400C is about 87% of its strength at room temp and I don't think it does alter significantly over these timescales at that temperature. It will be interesting to see how high it can be routinely cycled without losing its temper, but it seems to certainly provide much more overhead for safety margins as well as routine operation.

[1] https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/young-modulus-d_773.html

Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dad did this kind of work in the oil industry for 30+ years as a pipe fitter. His specialty was stainless and they had to be x-ray perfect welds. He recently retired but was always very proud of his work. It took me a long time to understand why. I wish he could have gotten into the space industry vs oil refineries. The latter is much harder on a person.

Was he prudent in maintaining good work habits? I hear the industry can be quite hard on people if they are not careful in how they work[1] [1] https://www.thefabricator.com/article/safety/the-invisible-r...

Ahaha absolutely. He's as square and as prudent as it gets. I mean to an extreme. My siblings have always laughed at him for it [outside of the workplace and in everyday matters where he carries those habits on].

It's hard on people regardless. And the oil industry is not known for being prudent in looking after their workers' health.

They got real pissed when he filed a workers compensation claim for a hearing aid before he retired. Thankfully he had support from his union.

And the number of stories he's told me where he was nearly killed...

I've no sympathy for the industry.

Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#335
post #87

380s for ISP for the Raptor vacuum engine seems durn good, considering the tradeoffs between hydrogen and methane. The most efficient engines we've flown, the RL-10 [0] (used on the Delta IV and Atlas rockets as part of the Centaur Upper Stage) and the RS-25 [1], (the Space Shuttle Main Engine) get around 450-460s for their specific impulse. These engines use liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen. The issue with liquid h…

Methane was chosen to a large extent because you could make it fairly easily on Mars which is necessary if you want to fly people there and then get them back again.

Musk talks about making it on Mars here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOpMrVnjYeY&feature=youtu.be...

Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was he prudent in maintaining good work habits? I hear the industry can be quite hard on people if they are not careful in how they work[1] [1] https://www.thefabricator.com/article/safety/the-invisible-r...

Ahaha absolutely. He's as square and as prudent as it gets. I mean to an extreme. My siblings have always laughed at him for it [outside of the workplace and in everyday matters where he carries those habits on]. It's hard on people regardless. And the oil industry is not known for being prudent in looking after their workers' health. They got real pissed when he filed a workers compensation claim for a hearing aid b…

I've no sympathy for the industry.

puts sunglasses on

Yeaaaahh!!!!!!

Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#337
post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Changing the beam target would require a repointing of the satellite in addition to the new guide signal. I can believe either-or, not both. If a guide signal is important, antenna orientation isn’t; if orientation is important, guide signals are not. > I'd like to see a real engineering cost estimate of transmitting power from one side of the planet to the other, by wires or any other method. I really doubt it can…

The guide signal is what you need for a tight, coherent beam. Direction is up to the satellite, which can choose which of multiple receivers to target. The advantage of transmitting power from space instead of the other side of the planet is that there's a straight line with no planet in the way. To go around the planet you need relay stations or wires. Plus there's the 5.4X more energy collected by each square meter…

> The advantage of transmitting power from space instead of the other side of the planet is that there's a straight line with no planet in the way. To go around the planet you need relay stations or wires.

Which is why I said 20,000 km not 12,000 km. Even if the circuit approximates the Earth as a square and goes up 6,000 km, turns 90 degrees at one relay, goes 12,000 km, makes another 90 turn at a second relay, and then 6,000 km down, that’s still a shorter path (though I’d expect the important distance in that instance to be 12,000 km not 24,000 km because it’s related to the inverse square law between any two antennas not over the whole distance).

> Maybe even take a quick look at the NASA report I provided, too.

I did. Now that I no longer at work I have time for a more detailed (though still brief) look at the contents rather than just skim read.

• That research was an attempt to turn a TRL-1/2 into a TRL-3.

• It is suggesting that — with further work — it could deliver electricity rate of 9 cents per kilowatt hour, whereas the Lazard 2017 price estimate for utility-scale ground mounted PV electricity was about half that (4.3-5.3) and the record (unless it’s been beaten since) is 2.4 cents/kWh.

• What I have read about the Retro Directive Phased Array is that it is it an assistant for good actors, not that it is a safety mechanism. By analogy, it seems that saying it makes this system “safe” is like claiming the passive aerodynamic stability of a 747 will prevent it crashing into a building — not the claim made by the inventor.

RDPA looks to me like a nice improvement to a traditional phased array antenna. Phased arrays can be re-aimed dynamically without physical rotation — which is, I think, why it’s being used in this design.

• The link itself suggests using its own wireless power transmission tech as a substitute for wires (page 50)

• Their own estimate for an initial full-scale (1 GW) is “far term (20-30 years)” (page 65) whereas their “mid- to far-term” market opportunities are the $0.5-$3.0 per kWh range (page 51)

$0.5/kWh is worse than combining batteries (~$0.18/kWh) with 5.4 times as much ground-based PV.

• The construction costs for the 2 GW plant “With aggressive tech advances“ are estimated at $16 per Watt (page 83), compared to current ground mounted costs of $0.103-$0.278 per Watt according to PV EnergyTrend on October 31 last year.

• Check out that risk-impact matrix for the 2 GW “mature” design on page 95

• The ground receiver is estimated to cost $10/m^2 on page 79; Unfortunately page 70 says “Determination of the actual power received will require additional, more detailed analysis“, which makes me wonder what the claimed costs per kilowatt hour even refer to. (Transmission? But there are estimates of beamed power efficiency…)

I’ve not seen estimates for the size of the ground station in that document, I’m going to have to handwave this one and say that the ground station is a 10 km diameter circle (because that’s the value that I’ve seen in other analyses of space-based solar power), which gives 2 GW / (π (5000m^2)) ≈ 25 W/m^2, which is both a bit higher than I’d be comfortable with and simultaneously so low that at $10/m^2 = 2.5 W/$ = $0.4/W, even the ground station alone is significantly more expensive than PV ($0.13/W).

Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#338
post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The guide signal is what you need for a tight, coherent beam. Direction is up to the satellite, which can choose which of multiple receivers to target. The advantage of transmitting power from space instead of the other side of the planet is that there's a straight line with no planet in the way. To go around the planet you need relay stations or wires. Plus there's the 5.4X more energy collected by each square meter…

> The advantage of transmitting power from space instead of the other side of the planet is that there's a straight line with no planet in the way. To go around the planet you need relay stations or wires. Which is why I said 20,000 km not 12,000 km. Even if the circuit approximates the Earth as a square and goes up 6,000 km, turns 90 degrees at one relay, goes 12,000 km, makes another 90 turn at a second relay, and…

So bear in mind the study was done before SpaceX did much. The $0.09/kWh and $16/watt on page 83 assume $500/kg launch cost. I wouldn't suggest SPS except in a scenario where SpaceX achieves the goals that Musk laid out Saturday night: $50/kg launch and total launch capacity thousands of times higher than the world has now, within the next several years. That kind of capability drastically advances the possible schedule, and drops the cost quite a bit too.

Meanwhile, the comparable cost from solar is the total required for dispatchable power 24/7, not just the cost of PV alone.

Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#339
post #92

I am so amazed by the genius of making it out of steel. It's just so completely counter intuitive but has accelerated their progress so much. If they told you the stats of the material, better strength at cryo tempertures meaning mass reduction, higher melting point meaning minimal heat shielding and great thermal conductivity it would be easy to imagine it was some new super composite. Then your head explodes when t…

I know there are 1000 of them 100x smarter than me at all of this, but I have my doubts that the specs for "cold rolled" stainless will hold up after tens of re-entries, as it is effectively being tempered over and over.

As I understand it, 300-series stainless is not heat treatable, so this should not be a problem. (304 stainless is routinely used in exhaust systems where they are heated up to glowing red temperatures every time. If the starship tank gets anywhere near that hot on entry I think there are worse problems given that on the other side of the tank is cryogenic propellants.

Re: Starship Prototype Unveiled

#340
post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The advantage of transmitting power from space instead of the other side of the planet is that there's a straight line with no planet in the way. To go around the planet you need relay stations or wires. Which is why I said 20,000 km not 12,000 km. Even if the circuit approximates the Earth as a square and goes up 6,000 km, turns 90 degrees at one relay, goes 12,000 km, makes another 90 turn at a second relay, and…

So bear in mind the study was done before SpaceX did much. The $0.09/kWh and $16/watt on page 83 assume $500/kg launch cost. I wouldn't suggest SPS except in a scenario where SpaceX achieves the goals that Musk laid out Saturday night: $50/kg launch and total launch capacity thousands of times higher than the world has now, within the next several years. That kind of capability drastically advances the possible sched…

Also bear in mind that it involves technology which hasn’t been sufficiently developed yet, technology which would make ground-based solar power cheaper (robotic assembly, beamed power), and that even with the relevant technology the ground station (whose costs are necessarily not impacted by lower launch costs) is more expensive on its own then an equivalent ground PV system including the cost of a battery for nighttime power.
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