Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

331–340 of 450 posts

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#331

Post by ced »

kasey_junk wrote: post #100
ced wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They make a lot of sense for shared ownership. In my city, there's a cooperative running a fleet of cars, similar to bike sharing programs, with dedicated parking spots that have electricity.

This seems like the only viable option but suffers from obvious problems; - traffic is bursty - why would car makers incentivise this?

Well, in Montreal at least, efficient public transit during rush hour + shared bikes + shared cars for off-rush-hours is a very nice combination.

> why would car makers incentivise this

The cooperative just bought vehicles. What can car makers do about it?

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#332

Post by nielsole »

Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #257
Animats wrote: post #232

It is already coming suddenly in China. Beijing has a lottery for new car license plates for ICE cars, and the quota goes down each year. Not for electrics. More than half of new cars in Beijing are electric. Next, Guangzhou. Shenzhen is already all electric buses.

> More than half of new cars in Beijing are electric. Do you have a link for that?

https://www.theatlas.com/charts/Skd1s2ig7

Apparently the chart shows only the number of permits handed out, not the number of cars actually admitted. (After you get the permit, you have a period during which you actually need to buy a car, if I read it correctly)

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#333

Post by compcoffee »

CalChris wrote: post #3

I'm on my third EV (Leaf, S, M3). Never going back. Since the Model 3 is so well built (after some startup hickups), I can recommend it on that alone. Tesla is very vertically integrated now (they make their own seats) and so the Model 3 is profitable for Tesla although the capital investment was quite high. Also, it's fun to drive next to a Viper and throw shade.

>Since the Model 3 is so well built (after some startup hickups) >and so the Model 3 is profitable for Tesla

It's hard to imagine someone stating these things seriously. So well built? Go to the Tesla Forums; buyers are being recommended to bring a checklist of defects to look for before you agree to take ownership, and are routinely rejecting delivery. That is unfathomable in the auto industry, unless you're talking about Soviet Russia. "Improving"? Maybe. But "so well built"? That's a stretch. But don't take my word for it, go and see for yourself.

And profitable? By what metric? Again; maybe. That is their intention, but there is zero evidence of that, and in fact evidence to the contrary.

It constantly amazes me how Tesla fans seem so oblivious to the realities of the struggles the company is facing. Yes, the EV revolution is coming, but there is no guarantee Tesla will lead the way.

>Also, it's fun to drive next to a Viper and throw shade.

Oh, you mean the Viper, that is a full second faster than Performance Model 3 0-60, brakes 50% faster 60-0 and runs the quarter mile 2 seconds faster? What shade are you throwing, exactly?

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#334

Post by D_Alex »

ohhellno wrote: post #290
kwhitefoot wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of infrastructure didn't stop the adoption of internal combustion engine vehicles. The infrastructure was built as demand for it increased. Anyway we have most of the infrastructure we need for electric vehicles already, it's called the grid. All that is missing is the connection points. And for many people that is also not a problem because we can plug the car in at home. So electric vehicles have a massive adv…

The original cars were electric and gas won out as a better solution because it was more portable and less dangerous in the event of an accident. Those things are still true today. Edit: why the downvote? Sources cited below. HN, you judge too fast.

Eh? Where is the source that today's electric vehicles are more dangerous in the event of an accident?

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#335

Post by londons_explore »

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

The only real benefit of electric cars is more environmentally friendly.

Since the environment is a collective problem rather than an individual problem, the transition wouldn't ever happen without government intervention.

Hence, I think the moment of inflection is entirely down to government policies, and very little down to consumer desires.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#336

Post by thinkcontext »

kasey_junk wrote: post #89
tomjakubowski wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't seem all that hard to solve. My city, Los Angeles, reserves some street parking spots for electric vehicles and has installed outlets on the curb for those spaces. Also, if you live in a city, unless you "reverse commute" to the suburbs, you probably won't drive enough miles regularly that you'd need to charge every night anyway. Give it a fast charge every few days in a commercial garage while you run errand…

Who pays for the power? What % of spots are electrified? If we hit an inflection point how fast can they change that % and how does the answer to the question about payment change?

The utility or a wholesaler will markup the power to pay for it. They should jump at the chance to grow at the expense of big oil.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#337

Post by Brakenshire »

londons_explore wrote: post #335
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

The only real benefit of electric cars is more environmentally friendly. Since the environment is a collective problem rather than an individual problem, the transition wouldn't ever happen without government intervention. Hence, I think the moment of inflection is entirely down to government policies, and very little down to consumer desires.

Electric cars are far cheaper to operate.

I think they will start around cities and dense suburbs, partly because of the reduced mileage demands and benefits of regenerative braking in stop start traffic, and partly because of democratic intervention to lower air pollution.

That will concentrate demand and seed the building out of infrastructure, which can then migrate outwards. The more rural you, the longer the switch will take, and some areas may not switch for decades.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#338

Post by avar »

dagss wrote: post #324
avar wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU-wide 25km/h limit is extremely frustrating. It makes it so that you can't "take the lane" on the very common 30km/h roads without impeding traffic, and subjectively it's just the wrong speed. A huge number of cyclists on non-E-bikes easily bike at 25-30 km/h, whereas 30-35 km/h is way less common.

I support it for lanes with a mixture of walking and biking (which at least in Norway is almost all the bike lanes). There is a huge difference in outcome in colliding with pedestrians in 25 km/h vs 30 km/h. Non-e-bikers that hit 30 km/h necessarily have a certain amount of training to keep those speeds consistently, while e-bikes give people on their first bike trip the same speed.

Well it's a good thing that your disagreement with me isn't going to translate into any votes on the matter, since Norway just adopts EU policy, and doesn't vote on it :)

More seriously, I can see that point, you can come up with good reasons either way. But I think the actual reason is just arbitrary.

I'm not aware of any trial program where they tried different speeds, tried to gather statistics on safety etc. This 25 km/h number was just arbitrarily chosen by some bureaucrat, likewise for 20 mph.

Whether something is an overall win for safety is a much more complex question than about the physics of colliding with a pedestrian at either 25 km/h or 30 km/h. If it was 30 perhaps you'd get more people to ride bikes, and then you'd be in the worst case colliding with a cyclist instead of that same person going 50-80 km/h in a car.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#339

Post by davidgould »

londons_explore wrote: post #335
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

The only real benefit of electric cars is more environmentally friendly. Since the environment is a collective problem rather than an individual problem, the transition wouldn't ever happen without government intervention. Hence, I think the moment of inflection is entirely down to government policies, and very little down to consumer desires.

They are also a much better driving experience. Once you get used to one pedal driving and instant silent thrust, gas cars seem unresponsive and clumsy. Not going to gas stations is great too.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#340

Post by dzdt »

zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

"I live in an apartment, I can't charge one on the street."

The electric car revolution is going to come at the same time as the self-driving revolution. That will change the calculus of parking significantly. No longer does your car need to be parked right next to your building to be convenient: it can be anywhere a short drive away and summoned at the touch of a button. So charging infrastructure doesn't have to be at every on-street location; it can be centralized to parking lots or garages on a neighborhood basis.

Post reply on HN