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Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

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Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are oh-so-many ways to address this and it's not clear what the market will pick. First off, 100% solar is not likely to win out unless it's a small grid on an island. Any realistic grid will have wind and solar and hydro. New nuclear is already far more expensive than lithium ion batteries + solar, so that's out of contention for new builds unless a government is trying to subsidize the industries that are com…

any curated list of place to follow to stay up to date ?

No curated places for the Bay efforts from each tech that I know of. However there are a few news outlets that are pretty solid:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/

https://www.utilitydive.com

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#332

The true price of solar is the price to produce reliable, continuous energy. That requires something to smooth out the signal and store the energy, most probably a battery. The solar + battery price is also going down, though not as fast as the solar only piece. But that's the metric we should be following. When that hits $30 per MWh, it'll be game over.

So... did you read the article, mr. top-voted comment?

> The Nevada auction also included a number of projects that link up utility-scale solar with batteries. Mastering solar plus storage will be critical for renewables to truly overtake fossil fuels, since they only generate power when it’s sunny or when the wind blows.

> “Three years ago you almost never saw batteries as part of a new solar or wind project,” Naam said. “In 2018, we’ve seen battery storage frequently show up as part of these bids. Energy storage is becoming the new normal with solar bids.”

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#333
post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main reason I would consider a battery is for disaster recovery purposes. Being from the suburban NYC metro area, we've had multiple, multi-week power outages in the past decade. We have a moderate sized portable generator, but running off that for weeks becomes a very unpleasant experience. Certainly far better than not having power, but unpleasant. Driving 2 hours away to the nearest place we knew had unlimited…

> we've had multiple, multi-week power outages in the past decade That's a crass state, what causes these outages? Is it a investment backlog of the power grid?

Hurricanes and early in the year snow storms (trees fall down on power lines), cause these things to happen.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cloudy days are usually cooler, and you still generate solar power on those days. True, you still need an alternative source of energy in those cases. But realistically, cloudy days reduces the sun, which usually leads to lower temperatures. --------------- Personally, I think that cold-energy storage (aka: run air-conditioners on overdrive to chill water. Then use chilled-water to cool your house) is the ideal. http…

Cold energy storage has always had the problem of utilization and capital cost. You need to buy the storage system and then that storage system may only be useful for 3-6 months of the year during 6 hours of the day. From a thermal efficiency perspective they're great but in general they get offed by the economics. For the price you'd end up gettinf better value off a battery storage system to do load shifting.

Ice storage seems uneconomical. But chilled water (40F / 5C) is reasonable.

If you see it from a total-cost-of-ownership, the chilled-water + air conditioning unit is overall cheaper than you'd expect. The air conditioner doesn't need to be rated for the peak-loads anymore, but can run more continuously at lower temperatures (ie: at night to store chilled energy into the water).

So you downsize your air conditioner, as you aim for average-loads... compared to everyone else who has to buy an air-conditioner sized for peak loads.

-------------

You seem correct about utilization. Now I wonder if a dual-use heat-pump / cooling system would be best. Heat up your house in the winter, cool down your house in the summer to double-duty the water-tank thermal energy storage.

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The "Earthships" discussed elsewhere in this topic effectively use thermal energy storage in dirt itself to heat and/or cool the entire house. It seems to use a lot of land, but single-family home owners generally have a large-ish yard where the earth can serve as the energy storage mechanism.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem to have slowed down TV sales.

TVs don't cost 10k. And they don't cost half as much every 5 years.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2015/long-term-price-trends-for...

Are you sure about that?

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem to have slowed down TV sales.

TVs don't cost 10k. And they don't cost half as much every 5 years.

Oh yes, they do cost half as much in 5 years. I bough by 46" LCD 6 years ago for $1500, today you can buy a 55" for $600.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#337
post #327
post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we've had multiple, multi-week power outages in the past decade That's a crass state, what causes these outages? Is it a investment backlog of the power grid?

Might have something to do with being in a very dense area with some very old infrastructure.

[deleted]

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#338
post #323

Correct me if any of the maths below are wrong. Eagle Solar Mountain Solar Farm ( 300 MW ) will have an annual production capacity of over 900 million kilowatt hours (kWh) once completed. The Moapa Band of Paiutes has become a national clean energy leader and will host in excess of 600 MW of solar on the 72,000-acre reservation. [1] For example, the Topaz Solar Farm [3] has an annual production capacity of 1200 milli…

The $2 billion in the article you linked seems to refer to NV Energy's "latest tranche of renewable projects totaling over 1 gigawatt." The cost of the Eagle Solar Mountain Solar Farm does not appear to be broken out specifically in that article.

The Moapa Band of Paiutes is presumably not dedicating most of their reservation's land to solar generation. Most of the Topaz Solar Farm's land is dedicated to solar generation. That's why you see a much lower energy density if you're calculating areal production using the entire land of the reservation as the denominator.

Solar has become cheaper than coal quite recently. It takes time to build new projects. The "cheaper than coal" qualifier is also so far true just in areas with reasonably good sun resources. Much of the US population lives in areas where there's not enough sun for PV to be cheaper than coal. New York and Pennsylvania aren't there yet, for example.

Finally, the US federal government is trying to prop up the coal industry. That includes invoking "national security" to keep uncompetitive coal plants running. The present administration has also raised the prices of solar equipment with a slew of tariffs. There's a risk for project developers that they could submit a bid for a new solar project, sign a contract, and then a year later see their costs rise above profits due to another round of tariff fights. There's a risk for project buyers that they'll lock in an agreement for a new "cheaper than coal" solar project but be forced to keep buying coal power anyway due to outside forces.

For example, Arizona's excellent sun resources now make PV generation significantly cheaper than running a 1970s-era coal plant in the state, but the federal government may try to force the coal plant's old customers to keep buying its electricity:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-coal/us-interior-depa...

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#339

The true price of solar is the price to produce reliable, continuous energy. That requires something to smooth out the signal and store the energy, most probably a battery. The solar + battery price is also going down, though not as fast as the solar only piece. But that's the metric we should be following. When that hits $30 per MWh, it'll be game over.

This comment gets made in every single solar article put on HN. The true price of solar is what the market is willing to pay for it. If the solar was ruining the grid or was way more expensive than what it seems, we would not keep seeing solar installed at this pace and at these costs. We need to get out of the mindset that all power generators need to produce a steady amount of power 24/7. A flexible grid made of ma…

I think you're looking at this only from an economical point of view and not factoring in environmental concerns.

In CA, though solar continues to be installed, we've reached a point--due to a lack of good/cheap storage ability--that at the end of the day (where Solar has been working fine all day), in order to meat evening demand, the only way to address steep demand is to fire up coal-fired plants. They work, but they're not only expensive, they're dirty.

Re: Solar Just Hit a Record Low Price in the U.S

#340
Every country should invest more into railway and subway infrastructure. Trains are vastly easier to automate, highly energy efficient and have run on electricity for at least a century.

Why even bother with electric self driving cars or trucks when the solution to this problem already exists?

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