Live data from Hacker News

US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

npr.org

331–340 of 434 posts

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#331
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general, the richer someone is, the less likely they are to have as many children. See https://www.economist.com/node/21561112 .

Doesn’t that still track? Having children makes it harder to get/stay rich, not having children makes it easier.

I think there are a lot of good points being made, but you guys may be caught up in the math and are forgetting something fairly simple.

Sex is free, fun, and easy. The less education you have the less likely you are to understand effective birth control. The less wealthy you are the less you have to spend on contraception. Those things together with the easiest and cheapest form of entertainment would seem to cirrelate with a higher birthrate in lower income brackets.

I cant find any studies that support what Im saying right now, but the logic holds.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#332
I'm no economist, but I've been mulling over some of the common problems the majority of citizens of modern countries are all facing.

I think that most of them (low purchasing power, high cost of living, high house prices) seem to stem from the effects of our collective activity and lack of large-scale and long-term organization and planning; it doesn't help that we've been lately -- as a society -- focused on optimizing for GDP, which is as an indicator of how well a country's economy is faring.

I'd like to say my opinion, and would welcome any educated response, but I fear a backlash or repercussion. This is something I've been thinking about in terms of game theory, and though they may seem a bit crazy, I would invite everyone to consider them before disregarding them as conspiracy theories.

I believe there is an interest in keeping the majority of people uneducated, busy and plentiful: in essence almost everyone is easily replaceable, and the majority of the population have to settle for meager wages.

However, in a scenario where people were to be educated and scarce, I posit that inequality would tend to disappear as people would have a higher bargaining power, a likelier scenario to organize or respond, and a higher quality of life.

So, even if this hurts housing, healthcare and industries indirectly (less infrastructure to be built, babies to be delivered and products to be sold), I'm glad that fertility rates are below replacement level because this indicates -- in my opinion -- that average quality of life will increase.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, what’s the plan when the boomer menace is over in 15-20 years? Where will their wealth go when they die?

A lot of it appears to be going to chronic, late, and end-stage medical care. And it's not the aides providing 24/7 coverage, who are getting rich. (Having been dealing increasingly with this, recently with some friends. Most of the aides are immigrants who are making relatively low hourly wages. The bills, however, can (well) exceed the full household expenses for a staunchly middle-class family of four. And many ev…

I believe you described the US case.

In Europe with the free healthcare, the elderly can be kept on care for a very long time, all covered by the taxes of the younger workers. This is gonna become a huge hole in the budget.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting but I thought the Donatist decision only applied to people who wanted to be part of the Roman Catholic church but their baptising priest had at some point lapsed. Generally Protestants don't recognize the authority of the church at all (i.e. Sola scriptura).

Donatists claimed that sacraments were only valid if the priest who performed them was a faithful Christian. So if the priest was a heretic or grave sinner, the sacraments he performed were invalid. The Catholic Church declared that to be a heresy – a heretic or a sinner can still perform valid sacraments, provided the heresy doesn't involve a radically different understanding of the nature of the sacrament. So, from…

> So, from the viewpoint of traditional Catholic theology, Protestants are heretics, but their beliefs about baptism are close enough to the Catholic belief that their heresy doesn't invalidate their baptisms. (Different story for ordination and the eucharist, since Protestant theology on those topics is further away from Catholic theology.)

This is largely an issue of apostolic succession; regardless of the theology of the communities about ordination and the eucharist (which do differ critically), the sacraments cannot be valid because they are valid, in Catholic doctrine, only when performed by a validly ordained bishop (ordination) or consecrated by a validly ordained priest (Eucharist); the absence of episcopal apostolic succession (or, in much of protestantism, even the episcopal office) means that there are no validly ordained bishops and priests around. Now that is intimately tied to the doctrine around ordination, but even if the doctrine around the substance of the sacrament of the eucharist were identical, the absence of a valid minister of the sacrament would be critical.

> Whereas, non-Trinitarian Christians, the Catholic Church views their beliefs to directly touch on what the sacrament of baptism is about, so their non-Trinitarianism invalidates their baptisms from the Catholic viewpoint.

Well, there's two issues there. Sure, it's debatable whether a non-Trinitarian would have the requisite intent to validly (if, necessarily, illicitly) perform a baptism in the eyes of the Catholic Church, but what is more certainly fatal of most baptism by non-Trinitarians would be the failure to baptise using a Trinitarian formula, which is required for the sacrament to be valid, whether or not it is licit.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valid_but_illicit

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#335
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. A friend of mine is very much an uninvolved father. His wife handles all the child-rearing and housekeeping, while he plays videogames, often while drinking. I've mentioned to him that he should probably be more involved, but it's not my place or responsibility to tell him he's failing as a husband and father. In his defence, he's still a better father than his own father ever was, but that's not exactly a high…

I’m not sure... I get your point and understand how you feel. But having seen it a few times, and the effect it has on the wife and child, I can’t be friends with people who act like this anymore. I just feel like I’m normalizing their actions by acting like it’s no big deal. I think one of the reasons that this kind of attitude amongst fathers continues, is because it’s seen as somewhat normal and socially acceptabl…

I totally agree. A man who sits at home all day (or even after work), drinks, and plays video games, is not someone who is going to make me a better person, in any respect. I'd cut my losses. The last thing anyone needs is to be associated with a loser.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forget the most basic fact. We understand how children are made now, or not made. It may sound stupid but it was not obvious a hundred years ago. The wife is pregnant again, well, must be an act of god.

You have a remarkable conception of what life was like a hundred years ago.

Well, try talking to your grandparents or beyond. It was a different time.

Try to imagine. There is no google search to find out how to make children. The closest library is far away and it's not that common to go to school and learn to read. That leaves you with the opinions of the family, the neighbors and the priest, who don't know much either and offer contradictory explanations.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting but I thought the Donatist decision only applied to people who wanted to be part of the Roman Catholic church but their baptising priest had at some point lapsed. Generally Protestants don't recognize the authority of the church at all (i.e. Sola scriptura).

The Roman Catholic Church does not recognize, in a doctrinal sense (obviously, it does in a secular material sense) the existence of any other Christian Churches [0]; it takes the “Catholic” in its name quite seriously. From the doctrinal point of view, there are no non-Catholic Christians, just Catholics of various degrees of imperfection, is and everyone who intends to join Christianity, or to join someone else to…

> it takes the “Catholic” in its name quite seriously.

I'm pretty sure you know about this, but for laymen who may not be familiar with the terminology.

The word "catholic" (little c) literally means "universal". And it is a strong doctrine of the "Catholic church" (big C) that the group of worshipers is singular and universal.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting but I thought the Donatist decision only applied to people who wanted to be part of the Roman Catholic church but their baptising priest had at some point lapsed. Generally Protestants don't recognize the authority of the church at all (i.e. Sola scriptura).

Donatists claimed that sacraments were only valid if the priest who performed them was a faithful Christian. So if the priest was a heretic or grave sinner, the sacraments he performed were invalid. The Catholic Church declared that to be a heresy – a heretic or a sinner can still perform valid sacraments, provided the heresy doesn't involve a radically different understanding of the nature of the sacrament. So, from…

I see, but in addition to a valid baptism aren't there required beliefs as well? Such as the immaculate conception and Papal infallibility, which Protestants would deny?

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have a remarkable conception of what life was like a hundred years ago.

Well, try talking to your grandparents or beyond. It was a different time. Try to imagine. There is no google search to find out how to make children. The closest library is far away and it's not that common to go to school and learn to read. That leaves you with the opinions of the family, the neighbors and the priest, who don't know much either and offer contradictory explanations.

>Try to imagine. There is no google search to find out how to make children. The closest library is far away and it's not that common to go to school and learn to read. That leaves you with the opinions of the family, the neighbors and the priest, who may not know much either and offer different tales.

I have to assume you're trolling, but to be charitable, here[0] is the Wikipedia article on the history of birth control. It starts in 1800 BC with ancient Egyptian writings describing the use of acacia and honey as a spermicide.

People knew where babies came from way before the internet.

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_birth_control

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is precisely what I meant. Good luck searching for tech jobs in Portland or even in Seattle outside of Amazon/MS

There are tech jobs everywhere. From Toronto to Paraguay and from SF to NYC and everywhere in between. Technology is everywhere , it is almost impossible to find a place where there are no tech jobs. But the bigger cities tend to have more of them and for better pay and Silicon Valley, New York, DC, Amsterdam, Berlin, London, and so on will have the best paid jobs but also the highest cost of living. Silicon Valley i…

Look, yes, obviously there are more jobs in the biggest cities. Why people insist on translating this into “there are no jobs anywhere else” is anybody’s guess. But it extends beyond preference or opinion and into objectively, verifiably, factually wrong territory with remarkable consistency.

It makes the people who claim it look ridiculous, but they seem to think it makes them look — I don’t know what — something not ridiculous. They don’t merely say it; they say it with aplomb and even contempt. (Maybe because they get universal agreement every time they bring this up with people in their real life?)

The person we’re responding to in this thread is an almost archetypical example. Is this some sort of “winner take all” bias? It’s very weird.

Programmers in the most expensive cities are doing fine. But this cultural wisdom is doing very real harm to people who would be much better off in cheaper cities. They think, “well, sheesh, it’s hard here, but I probably couldn’t even find a job in Pittsburgh.”

And that’s factually, dangerously wrong.

Post reply on HN