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Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

idlewords.com

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Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

#331

Post by Animats »

apsec112 wrote: post #53

"I live in California, which has the highest poverty rate in the United States, even though it's home to Silicon Valley. I see my rich industry doing nothing to improve the lives of everyday people and indigent people around us." This is trivially false. Over a hundred billionaires have now pledged to donate the majority of their wealth, and the list includes many tech people like Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Mark Zuck…

California has 2.1 million illegal aliens. Once they're deported, the poverty rate will drop.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

#332

Post by witty_username »

alexbecker wrote: post #51

While I agree with Maciej's central point, I think the inside arguments he presents are pretty weak. I think that AI risk is not a pressing concern even if you grant the AI risk crowd's assumptions. Elided from https://alexcbecker.net/blog.html#against-ai-risk : The real AI risk isn't an all-powerful savant which misinterprets a command to "make everyone on Earth happy" and destroys the Earth. It's a military AI that…

Global income inequality has been decreasing.

http://voxeu.org/article/parametric-estimations-world-distri...

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

#334

Post by nohat »

coldtea wrote: post #82
apsec112 wrote: post #4

This article explicitly endorses argument ad hominem: "These people are wearing funny robes and beads, they live in a remote compound, and they speak in unison in a really creepy way. Even though their arguments are irrefutable, everything in your experience tells you you're dealing with a cult. Of course, they have a brilliant argument for why you should ignore those instincts, but that's the inside view talking. Th…

> This article explicitly endorses argument ad hominem That's because it's very effective in practice. In the real world (which is not a pure game of logical reasoning only played by equals and fully intelligent beings without hidden agendas), the argument ad hominem can be a very powerful way to cut through BS, even if you can't explain why they are BS by pure reason alone. E.g. say a person A with IQ 110 talks with…

It's a reasonable heuristic for when you just don't have the time or energy, but if you are giving a 45min keynote speech on the topic I think you are expected to make the effort to judge an idea on its merits.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

#335

Post by witty_username »

Animats wrote: post #331
apsec112 wrote: post #53

"I live in California, which has the highest poverty rate in the United States, even though it's home to Silicon Valley. I see my rich industry doing nothing to improve the lives of everyday people and indigent people around us." This is trivially false. Over a hundred billionaires have now pledged to donate the majority of their wealth, and the list includes many tech people like Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Mark Zuck…

California has 2.1 million illegal aliens. Once they're deported, the poverty rate will drop.

Apart from reducing the cost of the welfare system, that doesn't fix the poverty problem.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

#336

Post by skybrian »

Animats wrote: post #331
apsec112 wrote: post #53

"I live in California, which has the highest poverty rate in the United States, even though it's home to Silicon Valley. I see my rich industry doing nothing to improve the lives of everyday people and indigent people around us." This is trivially false. Over a hundred billionaires have now pledged to donate the majority of their wealth, and the list includes many tech people like Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Mark Zuck…

California has 2.1 million illegal aliens. Once they're deported, the poverty rate will drop.

Cite?

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

#337

Post by drewcrawford »

idlewords wrote: post #56
apsec112 wrote: post #29

"Not many people know that Einstein was a burly, muscular fellow. But if Einstein tried to get a cat in a carrier, and the cat didn't want to go, you know what would happen to Einstein. He would have to resort to a brute-force solution that has nothing to do with intelligence, and in that matchup the cat could do pretty well for itself." This seems, actually, like a perfect argument going in the other direction. Ever…

I'm not arguing that it's useless to outsmart a cat. I'm disputing the assumption that being vastly smarter means your opponent is hopelessly outmatched and at your mercy. If you're the first human on an island full of tigers, you're not going to end up as the Tiger King.

To become the Tiger King you must overcome the entire population of tigers.

To become the President, you need only overcome a thousand Florida voters.

To intern the Japanese, you need only overcome two members of SCOTUS (Korematsu v. US)

It isn't necessary for Hawking to be able to trick the average cat into a box. It's sufficient to trick a handful of cats in total.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

#338

Post by jmagoon »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #274
tachyonbeam wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the issue is that once do manage to build an AI that matches human capabilities in every domain, it will be trivial to exceed human capabilities. Logic gates can switch millions of times faster than neurons can pulse. The speed of digital signal also means that artificial brains won't be size-limited by signal latency in the same way that human brains are. We will be able to scale them up, optimize the hardwa…

There's also another thing. AI may not need to be superhuman, it may be close-but-not-quite human and yet be more effective than us - simply because we carry a huge baggage of stuff that a mind we build won't have. Trust me, if I were to be wired directly to the Internet and had some well-defined goals, I'd be much more effective at it than any of us here - possibly any of us here combined. Because as a human, I have…

What about consciousness or intelligence implies that it would be 'pure' in the sense that you describe? Wouldn't a fully conscious being have a great deal of complexity that might render it equivalent to the roommate example? Couldn't it get offended after crawling the internet and reading that a lot of people didn't like it very much?

The idea that 'intelligence' is somehow an isolatable and trainable property ignores all examples of intelligence that currently exist. Intelligence is complex, multifaceted, and arises primarily as an interdependent phenomena.

Re: Superintelligence: The Idea That Eats Smart People

#339

Post by Animats »

Nearer term risks:

- AI as management. Already, there is at least one hedge fund with an AI on the board, with a vote on investments.[1] At the bottom end, there are systems which act as low-level managers and order people around. That's how Uber works. A fundamental problem with management is that communication is slow and managers are bandwidth-limited. Computers don't have that problem. Even a mediocre AI as a manager might win on speed and coordination. How long until an AI-run company dominates an industry?

- Related to this is "machines should think, people should work." Watch this video of an Amazon fulfillment center.[2] All the thinking is done by computers. The humans are just hands.

[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/vital-named-to-board-2014-5 [2] https://vimeo.com/113374910

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