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The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

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Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goldman does have an office in Jersey City, they put "backoffice" functions there and have a water taxi between the two. Anyhow, context is key. I think if I lived on the west coast I'd like an office campus nestled amongst nature with lots of open space between buildings. SF is not a great "big city" compared to NY. In NY I want to be in the urban core. People want the best of wherever they are.

> Goldman does have an office in Jersey City, they put "backoffice" functions there But they'd never put investment bankers and traders out there. I have always interpreted suburban tech office parks as a hold-over from the days of engineers being considered "back office" cost-center workers, rather than "front office" revenue-generating talent.

I think another factor has been the university-campus or "research lab" type of aesthetic that companies have cultivated for engineering, especially the more prestigious parts of their engineering organization. For example the old Amoco had its clerical, business, and "regular" engineering workers in the Chicago loop [1], but the PhDs in the research division were on a separate campus, with lakes and stuff, out in Naperville [2]. I think things like the Bell Labs [3] and IBM TJ Watson [4] style of "campus" have also influenced companies like Google, who idolize the environment/culture of those research centers.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aon_Center_%28Chicago%29

[2] http://grummanbutkus.com/assets/uploads/projects/232/bpamoco...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_Labs_Holmdel_Complex

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Watson_Research_Cent...

Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would not under estimate transportation costs. Metro Vancouver recently did a study comparing affordability combining both housing and transportation costs. Once transportation was considered, Vancouver City proper dropped to one of the 3 most affordable Metro Vancouver cities, whereas outlying suburbs rose to least affordable. The gap in transportation costs between the cheapest and most expensive areas was severa…

Might depend on the particular metro area. The cost difference between where I live, in the bumblefuck outer suburbs of the Bay Area, vs. a comparable (yet smaller) place closer to most usual tech businesses (either in SF or the Peninsula), is about $3-4K monthly. I've got cost/mile and cost/month records for my car(s) going back 15 years, including purchase price, insurance, fuel, and all maintenance, and it's not e…

Exactly. It's similar in the Tri-State Area of the Mid-South. Most people in middle class to rich live in the suburbs. Reduces crime, headaches, property costs, etc with only a bit of commute on good Interstates and highways. I paid $550 a month plus $100 utilities for a good, 2-bedroom house that was 20 minutes away from city jobs or fun with 30-40 min away from downtown. Not a bad trade.

Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#323

All of this works in cycles. There once was a time when people were flocking to the suburbs. Now, it is fashionable to live in the city. This too will pass when people (a generation maybe) comes to understand the little value obtained from all the chaos and activity. What are people chasing? Technology has made it easier to be in touch and socialize w/ people beyond physical geography. Transportation is getting bette…

> All of this works in cycles. There once was a time when people were flocking to the suburbs. Now, it is fashionable to live in the city. American suburbs are something of an anomaly. They've existed for a relatively brief period of time, and they seem to be waning now after a few generations. I think you may be conflating "small town" and "suburb" to some degree, when I wouldn't consider those things to be exactly…

> Suburbs are not an anomaly. They even exist in Europe in good numbers if you get outside city centers. The biggest reason why this is not so apparent to tourist is that they never go outside city centers. Many people commute and Europe has a good transportation network as the U.S will soon have to? Then what .... then city centers become less attractive as you can more easily get to where the action is without living a stone's throw from it.

Suburbs are not characterized by sprawl. There can be some suburbs that have sprawl. Others that don't. You're saying that the majority of the bay area is an anomaly? San Francisco is not the center of life. It used to be an average neighborhood with lots of poverty..(Cycle) ..

Most of the good restaurants are outside of it.. This clamoring to live in the city core is a new thing sparked by a generation in search of an advertised lifestyle of activity... The bay area's layout flies in the face of your sentiment.

> I live in the bay area too. I spend lots of time in the city. There are pros and cons. I have lived in both dense urban areas and suburbs. As such, I am not disillusioned about either.

> It's the stuff of million dollar research studies. There are macro social trends that function beyond your or my specific experiences. I am speaking about those and I am speaking about the general drivers that compel a whole generation to seek out things beyond a previous generation. It is a generational trend... One that will be cut short by the insane costs, the true economic correction, and technology that better improves transportation and telecommuting. And again, i have lived in dense cities and have been in every corner in SF.. I hear you. It's just not that serious. Take a look around you.. The majority of tech companies aren't in San Francisco. You think that's an anomaly? It's not. Start thinking beyond your own experience. Just because a bunch of social app companies are in the city and some scattered tech companies doesn't make for a big macro trend. The majority are outside of cities in suburbs.

> Your lack of understanding of what I'm talking about speaks to either your lack of experience outside of a city core (urban) area, lack of experience due to age, or bad experiences in Podunk suburbs. The majority of the bay area is a suburb. Get out of SF and talk to the people who live in it...

The majority of the bay area is a suburb. Get out of the city sometimes. It is most definitely not marked by shitty beers and chipotle. Some of my worst eating experiences have been in the city .. Some of the best restaurants are outside of it.

The bay area isn't some podunk suburb or rural area.. That's the big difference.. If you came from middle of nowhere suburbs to the bay area (straight to San Francisco), I'd question your 'experience' a little more and suggest you ask others for details about things you don't understand.

> Suburbs are not an anomaly and exist all over the world. The world outside city cores are not marked by chipotle and shitty beer. If you've traveled places and gone outside tourist areas or even explored the bay area beyond San Francisco, you'd know this.

The night-life in the city is unbeatable. That gets old as you age and desire more engaging experiences. Most things in the city can be enjoyed without having to live there. Insane costs push out culture anyway... A lot of the attractive/cool things in SF went to Oakland in search of a more affordable foundation... The upcoming generation isn't doing too hot in way of wealth.. As a result, interesting things are popping up in lower-cost areas.

Look up the demographic change that has happened in San Francisco in the last decade. The writing is all around you regarding cycles... Whether or not you're seeing it or not is another thing and you can live a long and enjoyable life not seeing any of it. To each their own w.r.t to personal happiness. Beyond that, you're going to have to dig a little deeper and draw from more varied experiences if you feel you want to chime in on such matters.

Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. This quote is key: “I now say that brainy youngsters are trending urban and urbane, away from your grandfather’s office parks.” Real estate analysis is showing that for the first time since it's been measuring more people are looking for housing in denser, more urban environments than in the traditional suburbs. An enormous number of people, especially young people, are looking to avoid spending the…

A few years ago, I was quite surprised by the number of younger co-workers who lived in the city instead of the burbs. Anyway, it didn't last. In every case except one (confirmed bachelor), they moved out to the burbs as soon as they our spouse got mugged or were going to have kids and realized they needed to be in a district with decent schools.

Would they still prefer the burbs if those issues weren't issues? They're just the hipsters who jumped ship (I mean no disrespect; they selflessly gave up the city life they otherwise wanted) before it got cool (and conditions improved).

Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#325
post #308
post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They just can't afford to raise a family as easily as their parents and grandparents could, so many choose not to, not because they legitimately have no interest but because they don't see the numbers adding up. That's the conventional wisdom, but I don't buy it. Raising a family was always tough - when I was young my parents scrimped and saved in a way that I've never seen among millennials. Everybody did, and it w…

> That's the conventional wisdom, but I don't buy it. Raising a family was always tough. I'm not saying it wasn't tough, but housing prices were much lower relative to incomes in the 50s and 60s, even in a place like San Francisco. Several of my relatives own million dollar homes there, and none of them are college educated or had spectacular careers or anything. Their only advantage is they were part of previous gen…

>I'm not saying it wasn't tough, but housing prices were much lower relative to incomes in the 50s and 60s, even in a place like San Francisco.

What do you mean even? San Francisco has to be in the top five in terms of growth in the value of property over that time period. There's no way incomes could keep up. But that's an outlier. Housing in the East Bay is very affordable.

>Sure it did, but it's a lot worse today because traffic congestion has progressed to unprecedented levels.

That's kind of an uneven thing. As I pointed out in another comment, the traffic in Southern California is better today than it was in the '70s. Texas has gotten the lion's share of the country's growth in recent years - I'm not surprised Houston is bad.

Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure anyone really loves suburbia, but once in place, car oriented development has a way of being self sustaining. This "Cycle of automobile dependency" image shows it pretty well. http://imgur.com/Y9vxbNN Only recently, with huge effort and many setbacks, are we starting to see cities break out of car oriented development and this endless suburban sprawl creating loop. I'm a bit concerned that the advent of…

I love suburbia. Living in a city is stressful and crowded. I'd like to live in a rural environment, but then I'd have to drive a very long way to get to work, stores, and entertainment. Living in a quiet suburb gives me the best of both worlds. It's only a 10 minute drive to the downtown library, good restaurants, and other fun stuff. Since I picked a job that's located near my suburb, my commute is also short and a…

I'll second that. The mtn biking trails start at the end of my street and I can bike to town on them. Kayaking is a 1 minute drive. My office is 10 minutes away. I saw a raccoon in my neighbors driveway yesterday and deer in my backyard last fall. It's not a bad life...

Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#327
post #293
post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Do the other comparisons and you'll find that you are off base -- people today do make enormous sacrifices to start families at a young age, and people in the 50s to 80s who were single with no children did live lavish lifestyles. ... which was my point. People in their 20s today have it no harder than their parents and grandparents. They're simply choosing not to have families in larger numbers.

The quoted comment does not contain the concession you seem to think it does. On the contrary, the quoted section of my previous comment simply states that people in their 20s today have it at least as hard as their parents and grandparents. I'm silent (here) on the question of whether it's harder today. > They're simply choosing not to have families in larger numbers. This is only meaningfully entailed by the data i…

Birth control was readily available by 1970. Presumably you've heard about "free love" and all that?

Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not "a wash". Housing and education are dramatically more expensive than they were a few generations ago. Gone are the days of paying for your degree waiting tables with enough left over to put a down payment on a house. Now you can look forward to a mountain of debt for an education and mortgage that you might never pay off in your life time.

It might be "a wash". Housing and education are more expensive, but food and entertainment costs are way lower. The cost of most things inside your home, like appliances and televisions is cheaper. Tools, hardware, and common home repairs are also cheaper. It's very hard to get an exact 1:1 ratio, as many of us spend hundreds of dollars on cell phones that didn't exist back then, or thousands on computers, but naming…

For the bottom 50% of earners, real wages are more or less the same now as they were in 1970. They went up for a bit from the 90s to 08, but they are back at 1970 levels now. Because wages have recently fallen, people in this group feel very poor right now.

For the top 50% of earners (increasing the closer to the top you get), real wages have increased a lot since the 1970s.

Between 1940 and 1985, most people were able to save about 5% of their income. Between 1985 and 2012, this decreased to become negative (i.e. most people live on debt).

Medical care, education, and energy have increased in cost several times over since 1970, and these costs are not captured in the real wages I quoted. It may be these costs explain why people have a lower disposable income, demonstrated by decreased savings rate.

Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually it isn't (several studies have highlighted this). The reason why a lot of cities aren't better for the environment is that the insane cost force many people out to the cities edge who then have to commute in... negating a good deal of the concentration benefits. Further, cities can wreak havoc on health due to the concentration of pollution, noise, etc ... Increase mental health issues due to stress/etc. Hum…

Your data must be from the industrial revolution. We have decades of data from dense European cities that indicate better health and quality of life. Also just look at the health of rural people versus urban people in the US--the obesity crisis ain't happening in cities. >The reason why a lot of cities aren't better for the environment is that the insane cost force many people out to the cities edge who then have to…

My data is on the analysis of U.S cities. Please use Google. That's what were talking about right?

Dense European cities are not designed like U.S cities namely in way of transportation systems... That's the number one point you're missing. Europe != US. Europe has tons of suburbs btw. You should travel outside city cores the next time you're there. Europe's transportation network doesn't revolve around highways and individual vehicle transport. Thus, they don't have the problem the U.S has in way of how people get into city cores.

Not to mention, you're missing a huge difference w.r.t to how jobs are scattered throughout the U.S vs europe and the affordability of housing therein.

Since the U.S's transportation system is not like Europe's nor are the city centers, the U.S's cities are most definitely not more efficient when you consider the total cost (the huge pollution cost, the time cost, and inefficiency of people who can't afford/fit in the city commuting in)

I really wish people would do more research before down voting people's comments and rebutting commentary with unsound rebuttals .. Downvotting is not for voting down comments you don't favor. You express that in comments and allow for responses to clear the air... which I have

Re: The old suburban office park is the new American ghost town

#330
post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. This quote is key: “I now say that brainy youngsters are trending urban and urbane, away from your grandfather’s office parks.” Real estate analysis is showing that for the first time since it's been measuring more people are looking for housing in denser, more urban environments than in the traditional suburbs. An enormous number of people, especially young people, are looking to avoid spending the…

>An enormous number of people, especially young people, are looking to avoid spending their lives in cars. Young people never wanted to spend their lives in cars. What's different with this generation is they don't seem to have much interest in forming families, so they move to the trendier areas and spend all their money instead of living in a cheaper area, commuting, and saving for a situation that would be good fo…

> What's different with this generation is they don't seem to have much interest in forming families

Do you have any evidence to support that, or are you just engaged in standard Millennial-bashing?

Most people in my peer group certainly plan to raise a family in the future, they're just being responsible and waiting to have kids until they are at a good place career-wise.

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