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Amazon Prime Air

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Re: Amazon Prime Air

#321

Post by visakanv »

crusso wrote: post #251
jmduke wrote: post #176

(Disclaimer: I work for Amazon, but not for anything related to this. This is the first time I'm learning of Prime Air.) I'm somewhat disheartened by the skepticism of a lot of comments from HN, Reddit, and Twitter. Not stuff like "I wonder how they'll handle adverse weather" (which I think is intellectually interesting) but stuff like "As soon as one of these kills a dog it's done for". What merit is there in rootin…

How does skepticism equal rooting for failure?

"the moment it kills a dog" applies to everything, not just a new technology. Horse carriages killed more people than cars, and cars still kill people every day... so I'd say that doesn't count as intelligent skepticism, it's sort of... cherry-picked?

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#322

Post by bjt »

chongli wrote: post #310
jmduke wrote: post #176

(Disclaimer: I work for Amazon, but not for anything related to this. This is the first time I'm learning of Prime Air.) I'm somewhat disheartened by the skepticism of a lot of comments from HN, Reddit, and Twitter. Not stuff like "I wonder how they'll handle adverse weather" (which I think is intellectually interesting) but stuff like "As soon as one of these kills a dog it's done for". What merit is there in rootin…

What merit is there in rooting for failure for failure's sake? I don't think everyone that expresses skepticism is rooting for failure. I think there's a very strong feeling of cynicism about the bureaucratic, anti-intellectual, regressive culture of the established corporatocracy.

Corporatocray is a weird word to use in this context. Amazon is a corporation wanting progressive regulation here, not resisting it.

The fact that the FAA is in charge of the regulations gives me reason for optimism. Having a consistent policy across the US will be a lot simpler than if each state, or worse, each municipality, were creating its own regulations.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#323

Post by yew »

jmduke wrote: post #176

(Disclaimer: I work for Amazon, but not for anything related to this. This is the first time I'm learning of Prime Air.) I'm somewhat disheartened by the skepticism of a lot of comments from HN, Reddit, and Twitter. Not stuff like "I wonder how they'll handle adverse weather" (which I think is intellectually interesting) but stuff like "As soon as one of these kills a dog it's done for". What merit is there in rootin…

Skepticism and rooting for failure are not the same thing. There are plenty of people here and elsewhere who are mindlessly critical of everything, but not all the critics fall into that category.

The greatest challenge for radically transformative technologies (and this would extend far beyond the scope of Amazon if ever implemented) is almost always being regulated out of existence. That response requires the least effort and the least shared motivation, and it's the one usually taken when a new technology inspires many diverse fears.

Comparing this situation with that of almost any purely Internet-oriented technology isn't likely to lead to an accurate prediction. The downsides of existing delivery methods are likewise unlikely to play a part in the final decision. Pending revelations regarding Amazon's interest in political involvement, skepticism seems warranted. The impact of (well-justified) skepticism on the mindset of innovators also seems desirable.

Speaking for myself, I'll grant that the FAA has a slightly better than average track record (when making executive decisions, anyway).

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#324

Post by pbhjpbhj »

lancewiggs wrote: post #240

Responses that I have not yet seen in the comments. 1: These could deliver into my apartment on the nth floor by coming through an open window, as well as the mentioned balconies and front yards or the roof. 2: We could not just set our delivery point up using a app on our smartphones (GPS wtc), but those phones could also broadcast over the various radios to the device and even use the camera to help the UAV navigat…

The drones could hitch a lift on people's autonomous vehicles. Amazon would give you a roof rack and pay you when it rides on; they can hook in to your GPS and schedule to anticipate routing.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#325

Post by jotm »

dakrisht wrote: post #130

This is an awesome idea of course. It's a glimpse into the future. I remember tweeting with Chris Anderson of 3D Robotics about a year ago about autonomous package delivery from A > B. I'm sure Bezos and team started nerding out on this concept years ago. Eventually, "vehicles" the size of UPS trucks will be delivering packages autonomously all over the world. This is definitely a glimpse into that day. And it won't…

It is pretty awesome, indeed. I'd say your issues aren't that big, though:

1. FAA is the toughest challenge, true that; 2. A good idea would be to use the roofs for delivery; 3. To add to that, people will buy a membership just for the convenience of getting a lot of small stuff in less than an hour without leaving the house/office. Hard drives, screw drivers, nuts and bolts, stuff for BBQs, etc.; 4. Stealing them will likely end with them being tracked by GPS, found and fined, people will learn not to do it soon enough :); 5/6/7. I think the failure rate will actually be extremely low - quadcopters are very resilient, and we've already seen how amazingly well they can handle the weather, bumping into buildings and flying with three rotors - obviously, Amazon will have to go with the best hardware design;

I think this could be big right away - as I said, many people want immediate delivery and with a subscription model, Amazon won't even have to ship all that often to start making money off of this.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#326

Post by DufusM »

Turing_Machine wrote: post #312
DufusM wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope it works too - it seems so cool. But I am not sure this is the big problem in this space. Current delivery time = 1 day for last mile + >1 day for warehouse -> local area This method reduces the last mile delivery time down to 30 mins but it is not clear how the second part would be optimized down. At least, without losing the value proposition of Amazon - giant centralized warehouses instead of local retail o…

It's like the levels of caching in a computer. (just using orders of magnitude for an example, the actual numbers for best efficiency probably aren't quite so nice) The 1000 most frequently ordered items in a warehouse near your neighborhood. The 10000 most frequently ordered items in a city-wide warehouse. The 100,000 most frequently ordered items in a regional warehouse. Amazon already has the regional warehouse pa…

Agree, it could totally work for Amazon Fresh items, say, that are bound to be ordered regularly.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#327

Post by cliffbean »

RodericDay wrote: post #260
jmduke wrote: post #176

(Disclaimer: I work for Amazon, but not for anything related to this. This is the first time I'm learning of Prime Air.) I'm somewhat disheartened by the skepticism of a lot of comments from HN, Reddit, and Twitter. Not stuff like "I wonder how they'll handle adverse weather" (which I think is intellectually interesting) but stuff like "As soon as one of these kills a dog it's done for". What merit is there in rootin…

Fast consumer good delivery is pretty far from what I consider the best science fiction can offer.

The best new technology in science fiction might be warp drive. However, that's currently thought to be physically impossible.

Fast consumer delivery is merely impractical. It's so impractical, that we often think of it as impossible. But this is where science fiction is at its best: if we think about how cool it would be if this actually worked, we may find it easier to justify the kinds of investment needed to make it practical.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#328

Post by infinitebattery »

I see many potential problems to this- such as, what if the weather is very bad (wind, rain, ect). Also, what if a thief catches the drone?

It's definitely an interesting concept. I love it. I doubt Amazon has it all figured out but I also doubt they are foolish. Kudos to Amazon for being bold.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#329

Post by damian2000 »

fragsworth wrote: post #26

Brick-and-mortar stores are doomed. I can only see a few types of products remaining in brick-and-mortars: Clothes that you want to try for size, fruits and vegetables that you want to sample, and restaurants... any others?

Heavy items or things you need to buy in bulk - e.g. building and gardening supplies. Where the cost of delivery would be astronomical.

Re: Amazon Prime Air

#330

Post by shitlord »

jmduke wrote: post #176

(Disclaimer: I work for Amazon, but not for anything related to this. This is the first time I'm learning of Prime Air.) I'm somewhat disheartened by the skepticism of a lot of comments from HN, Reddit, and Twitter. Not stuff like "I wonder how they'll handle adverse weather" (which I think is intellectually interesting) but stuff like "As soon as one of these kills a dog it's done for". What merit is there in rootin…

If anyone can pull it off, it's probably Amazon.
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