Earlier quoted context omitted.
Very surprisingly it's never mentioned that car turbos have very similar requirements - spin at 10K+ RPM at 10000K+ for or tens of thousands of hours with little expected maintenance. They are often made of superalloys, yet regular cars, down to econoboxes costing 20-30k or less have them, and are made by the millions.
If you figure a way for airplane to stop on a cloud in mid flight to wait for a tow vehicle I have a Nobel award for you in whatever field you want.
Why jet engines aren't made in China
321–330 of 342 posts
Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China
#322Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China
#323Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China
#324Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China
#325Earlier quoted context omitted.
What from I understand the issue is mainly service frequency rather than fuel efficiency. Also, the domestic commercial jet market is still sizable, so excluding the domestic market from analyses is kinda weird. Finally, lots of countries are spooked by arbitrary US sanctions and want to diversify.
Yes I think eventually they will catch up because the Chinese domestic market is big enough to give them a market while they iterate. With petrol/diesel engines they just gave up and went straight to electric, but there's no viable alternative to jet engines for planes, so they'll put in the work (plus the military incentive running in parallel)
This isn't really true. Chinese ICE vehicles are also sold worldwide, and Geely has some genuine ICE engineering achievements:
https://www.autoblog.com/news/geely-just-built-one-of-the-mo...
Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China
#326Earlier quoted context omitted.
“America is in decline” is the consensus view. America dominating on all fronts is the contrarian view. I expect these views to swing like a pendulum in public discussion until something meaningful happens or until it’s clear in the rearview that America is in fact is more like UK, Japan, or Germany.
Certainly that's the consensus view. However, I have yet to see any evidence that people within the consensus actually have done any analysis to find the truth. They just have sort of feeling which is driven by the press which presents a story.
Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China
#327Earlier quoted context omitted.
When I last looked into it (admittedly a number of years ago now) this was true for remotely piloted aircraft, but there wasn't enough data on systems that pilot themselves with humans doing the navigating. I'm not convinced that humans are particularly effective in emergency situations, especially when they're expected to go from monitoring systems that work 99.99% of the time, to suddenly aviating with alarms going…
LLM based agentic systems can never meet current FAA certification requirements for civil aircraft. The problem is that the internal logic is essentially a black box and there's no way to verify that it won't go off and do something totally bizarre in an unpredictable way. Now you could argue that human pilots are subject to the same limitation, and there have been a few cases where humans have intentionally crashed…
That's not the same as saying that current architectures are acceptable, because clearly they aren't. But both neural net and stochastic controllers have been tested in aircraft since at least the 1990s. Probably earlier, but that's as far back as my knowledge goes, anyway. I don't know of any neural nets doing active control type tasks, but I don't see any intrinsic reason they couldn't be used as long as you can show that they're good enough.
Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China
#328Earlier quoted context omitted.
The WS-15 is impressive, but it’s on a par with the jet engine technology available to the US military in ~2005. No-one doubts that China can make functioning jet engines. The question is how long the West can maintain the technical lead that it still does have.
WS15 matches western on raw power, i.e. comparable thrust to f119/f135 (f22/f35). PRC cores lacks CMC which was last (2000s) western hot section revolution, but that's more about efficiency ~10-20% better range. We don't know WS15 maintenance/metallurgical gap - no one really knows if their service/overhaul hours, but even if heresay assumption 30-50% lifepsan, that's something PRC industrial output can circumvent, i…
For civil applications, fuel efficiency is non-negotiable if China is to sell engines outside its domestic market.
Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China
#329Re: Why jet engines aren't made in China
#330Earlier quoted context omitted.
Considering the design and certification is the expensive bit that needs thousands of sales to break even (want certification to be cheaper? Well I guess if you like more crashes) I'm not sure what some artificial separation of design and systems integration to create the illusion of a competitive market achieves, except perhaps worse safety as suddenly you've got a lot of companies selling the same licenced design m…
> Considering the design and certification is the expensive bit that needs thousands of sales to break even What does that have to do with it? The design licensing entity is going to get a fee per-plane from every company doing final assembly. They're going to set the fee high enough to cover their costs but not so high that people go to a different design from another company instead. > the illusion of a competitive…
It means that there's no incentive to be a "design licensing entity" that takes on all the cost and risk of designing, prototyping certifying an airframe and then shares the returns on making that airframe with a bunch of competitors that take on no such risk. Either the royalties are set very high in which case you're creating massive chaos for no meaningful price reduction, or you've made new aircraft development in the United States commercially unviable and accidentally given Airbus a global monopoly on 150+ seat airliners...
> How about an actually competitive market, because anyone can get the design on the same terms and can't use an exclusive right to foreclose competition in parts of the supply chain other than the one which is supposed to be under patent.
It's the illusion of market competition because the only way a company licenses IP it spends billion dollars a year updating and testing so that other manufacturers can undercut it on sales is if the government steps in and sets the price and decides who should and shouldn't be licensed 787 integrators (otherwise the answers are "too high for anyone to get involved" and "no, you guys that didn't coinvest in its development can't have licenses to sell anything more valuable than PMA parts"). And in practice not only do you get the government determining who is allowed to build 787s at what price, but also needing to underwrite the development costs, since "invest several billion in complex technology innovation; government will then determine the royalties you are entitled to earn from it" is not really an attractive proposition
> As opposed to the monopolist whose customers can't even switch to a competitor when the supplier has a safety scandal, yet operates under the same profit incentive to cut costs?
Yes, monopolists care more about maintaining the reputation of technology they've spent billions designing than random new market entrants established to manufacture others' IP more cheaply than them. Funnily enough subcontractors with little stake in the 737 specifically and the resulting diffusion of responsibility was the cause of the emergency door defects, and they're not going to do anything to solve MCAS either...