Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

321–330 of 426 posts

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#321

Post by mgrunwald_ »

dbbk wrote: post #183
techtuate wrote: post #95

I was wrong - not investing in FB and Amazon many years ago - thought those businesses will shrivel and die. I believe OpenAI is a bit of a coin flip as the AI space evolves. In fact I feel all AI will be marginal return generators at best. There are a lot of incumbents and a lot more coming as barriers to entry get increasingly lower. Unless a company can build a near monopoly it'll be hard to justify a 100X revenue…

If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google

Exactly. I remember the beginnings of ChatGPT, OpenAI looked like the future and Google had Bard, which was not very good. It looked like Google was soon to become irrelevant. Fast forward to today and they have a lot of great products in this space powered by their own custom AI chips.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#322

Post by psvv »

gpt5 wrote: post #189
henry2023 wrote: post #74

Soon to be part of your portfolio if you hold Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500 trackers line QQQ or SPY.

Note that index funds don't hold companies in proportion to their market cap, but in proportion to their free float (shares available to purchase on the market). Both SpaceX and OpenAI's estimated free float are around 4-5% of their shares at IPO. This means that we really are talking about companies in the sub $100M valuation in term of index fund impact (assuming under $2T for each).

That's true for the S&P but not nasdaq, nasdaq is market cap weighted. There used to be a limit that the available float couldn't go below something like 20%. (This is because 5% float available but 100% market cap would cause a huge supply/demand mismatch). But for spacex they changed the rule so there's no minimum, it's just that below 20% float, companies would be weighted at 5x the float instead of 100% of market cap. If spacex is planning on something like 5% float, it would be weighted around 25% of market cap with only 5% of float available to buy.

But it gets worse because when the lock-up period expires in 180 days after ipo (currently scheduled right before quarterly index rebalancing), it's possible that frees up more than 20% of float and it suddenly has to be weighted at the full 100% of market cap -- triggering additional automatic buying.

It certainly seems like it's set up for our retirement accounts to be the insider's exit liquidity.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#323

Post by skybrian »

1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote: post #311

Alternative to archive.md No CAPTCHA, no DDoS on blogger, works where archive.md is blocked https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/openai-is-preparin... For those who don't use Javascript and prefer text-only https://assets.msn.com/content/view/v2/Detail/en-in/AA23F0Pt... For example, something like curl -Haccept: -Huser-agent: https://assets.msn.com/content/view/v2/Detail/en-in/AA23F0Pt/ \ |(echo " "; grep -o " .…

On an iPad, the first link is to a prompt to install an app.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#324

Post by Danox »

ReptileMan wrote: post #319
chvid wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.

I think that NVIDIA is quite risky. I still don't understand what is their moat. There is nothing in their hardware to make them irreplaceable.

There isn’t in time what will happen is that they will be designed around be it the Chinese or someone else, see Intel another company that will also be designed around will be ASML its just a matter of time.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#325

Post by karmakurtisaani »

Danox wrote: post #307
lpcvoid wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the mentioned will dump their overhyped and overvalued trash onto retail investors which are forced to buy it due to it being part of the NASDAQ. It will tank in value afterwards due to public scrutiny revealing thr fiscal unprofitability. Retirement funds will be ripped apart, trust in the financial system will evaporate, people will be left holding the bag on a scale that makes Lehman brothers seem like a tr…

They (everyone) are not forced to buy it. They’re buying it on the hype. Tesla for example is done worldwide aside from the USA, but it still has a cult and hype behind it, if you are a smart early investor, you have already sold all your shares in Tesla and moved on because they will never be as big as they were five years ago. Tesla’s done BYD has seen to that. Many investors haven’t figured that out yet but they w…

> They (everyone) are not forced to buy it. They’re buying it on the hype.

But they are and that's the key part of the scam. The index funds will have to buy these, since they are so highly valued. Index funds in turn are very popular investment devices used by pension funds, banks, individuals etc.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#326

Post by skybrian »

utopiah wrote: post #297
sandeepkd wrote: post #71

Looks like there is only limited money in the market and there is a race to get it first. Wonder if the free market concept should move the prices down in such a scenario?

> free market concept should move the prices down Kind of a radical idea. I did read about that in economy books way back when at uni... but I don't think it's really happening actual. At least my walled doesn't seem to get it. PS: it's a joke, free market works when there is competition. VCs are making damn sure it's just enough monopolies that they get wealthier while consumers themselves get milked. Without antitr…

Prices do go down for electronics:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/price-changes-consumer-go...

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#327

Post by mehackernewsacc »

anal_reactor wrote: post #234
0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't you think sitting alone at home smoking weed and playing games might get a little bit lonely? Humans need human contact. Might as well pick up a night shift at the convenience store so you can talk to people. At which point the plan becomes something you can put into action tomorrow, if you wanted. It's like the parable of the Mexican fisherman: https://www.thekinnardhomestead.com/the-parable-of-the-mexic... St…

That's something I have at the back of my mind. My company is completely dysfunctional so 90% of my job is literally doing nothing, which is amazing. The problem is the fear of losing this position.

Is your company hiring?

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#328

Post by marcosdumay »

xnickb wrote: post #263
cdnsteve wrote: post #212

Non profit files for IPO should be the headline.

I understand what you're saying, but strictly speaking is it fair to say they aren't profitable? Didn't they along with other participants of LLM-race invest heavily into the infrastructure and the said infra wasn't yet delivered. My understanding is that it's unreasonable to claim a hotel isn't profitable when they're still on the building stage. I do understand that we don't have enough energy to turn it on when al…

> My understanding is that it's unreasonable to claim a hotel isn't profitable when they're still on the building stage.

It's not unreasonable at all, it's a honest description of the hotel's current situation. Would you call it profitable?

If a hotel stays on the building stage for half a decade, getting a loan after another to pay for that, that unprofitability is acutely relevant.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#329

Post by marcosdumay »

chvid wrote: post #190
dbbk wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google

Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.

You are probably too late for both. But if you buy the AGI line, then yeah, those are the ones to go to.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#330

Post by gmerc »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #304
hootz wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not "there will be", there already is a market of generic providers and you can use millions of tokens of DeepSeek-v4-flash for like 1 dollar. https://models.dev/?search=deepseek-v4-flash

Yeah, but will those hosted models help me write smut, advance my weekend CBRN hobby, advice on how to kill myself, advice on how to kill the person who made me want to kill myself, and how to set up a mega drug manufacturing operation like a real life Walter White?

You mean Google?
Post reply on HN