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Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

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Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone seriously still believe this? I thought as a society we had realized Musk is simply BSing whatever he feels like until it becomes untenable.

Oh, you mean like: Solar Roof: https://electrek.co/2026/05/14/tesla-solar-roof-promise-vs-r... Tesla Full Self Driving: https://electrek.co/2026/05/18/musk-unsupervised-fsd-widespr... Hyperloop / Boring Company mass-transit vision Mars settlement timelines X as an everything app

I mean, most of his wealth is coming from his overhyping skill, you can also tell marketing. Or lying.

I consider him a visionary in a sense of innovation but he is insecure and immoral one.

Needles to say his investors made money on his over promises.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone seriously still believe this? I thought as a society we had realized Musk is simply BSing whatever he feels like until it becomes untenable.

> Does anyone seriously still believe this? I do. It’s not his singular focus. But he continues to personally invest himself in pushing the boundaries of human spacefaring capability. That goal seems more meaningful to him that it does to e.g. Bezos, who seems to have a rocket company to look cool.

This is a joint project of U.S. government military planners and an ostensible private individual. If Elon disappeared, rest assured, the contracts and development would still happen.

They want mega constellations for always-on drone guidance and for "golden dome" which would allow for the laser-based shoot-down of long range exo-atmospheric missiles. You need reusable spacecraft to make that tenable. This is not about Mars, don't buy the marketing. At best for civilians, this is about making broadband widely available such that America can dominate internet connectivity going forward and increase spying further. As an example, examine a map of Starlink connectivity, you will notice that Russia and Gaza are excluded.

The Artemis missions will eventually enable the placement of communications equipment on the moon, making anti-satellite weapons less effective at disrupting critical communications.

Fortress America will be invincible forever, so so they desire. The macroeconomics are not working out for them though even though the technological edge is still working for them on that level.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's a lot less dumb if you can drastically reduce the launch costs AND drastically increase the launch mass and size. If the Starship thing works out, he will have achieved that. No, it's still dumb. No matter how cheap they manage to make SpaceX launches realistically, there's really no situation that a space datacenter makes any sense compared to putting datacenters in, for example, Antarctica. If they built in…

> No matter how cheap they manage to make SpaceX launches realistically, there's really no situation that a space datacenter makes any sense compared to putting datacenters in, for example, Antarctica. Solar energy is going to expensive in Antarctica. We can imagine a situation where the server hardware becomes so cheap that the energy cost dominates. In that case, sticking the things in space could make sense, parti…

You still would have to deal with the fact that you would almost certainly need to budget at least 2x the regular amount of hardware to deal with the fact that you can’t do stuff like “replace failed power supply” or “replace failed hard drive” without launching an astronaut into space, so you would need to have an abundant amount of resiliency to overcome that. You know, fault tolerance. Something you can’t handwave away for a data center.

I am harping on this point because You can’t just say “but in future computes won’t need maintenance” because at that point you’re just engaging in speculative fiction that you have no way of knowing. I could say “in the future we’ll have cold fusion” and maybe that’s true but I have no way of knowing.

So given that you would need 2x the power that you’d need on earth. Compared to just putting a shitload of solar panels in a desert where non-astronauts can easily access it I don’t see the point.

And of course there’s the nuclear-power-plant sized elephant in the room; if power is the constraint it would still almost certainly be more economical to have a nuclear reactor than trying to get a data center in space.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#324
post #45

I think a lot about how there's a very plausible alternate history where Elon Musk controls most of the frontier of AI.

The following dates for the start of the statue of limitations were the most plausible:

1. 2019 capped-profit restructuring + 1B MSFT investment

2. 2023 Microsoft expansion / reported 75%-then-49% economics

3. 2024/2025 PBC restructuring

AFAIK it has not been reported as to exactly what the jury found, but IIUC the 2019 date is consistent with their findings.

That's poor for Musk, but it makes sense. He was arguing 2023. I think it is a valid argument.

But he had to know that 2019 was very much in play (and is likely the most logically consistent).

This is very squishy law.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does anyone seriously still believe this? I do. It’s not his singular focus. But he continues to personally invest himself in pushing the boundaries of human spacefaring capability. That goal seems more meaningful to him that it does to e.g. Bezos, who seems to have a rocket company to look cool.

I know there's a risk when Musk's name comes up that everyone takes "all against" or "all for" approach - very polarising figure. But I see a lot of that announcement, and the others someone else pointed to as his "aspirational, but ultimately never going to happen" goals - whether he believes the claims are achievable, or not, he says these things to energise people to working/paying for him to try It costs him litt…

> It costs him little to nothing to say,

That all depends on how much he values his credibility, I think..

But to be fair, for someone as good at self promotion as he is, I can believe that the value of the hype could be greater than the cost in credibility.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#326
Interesting quotes from the discovery emails. - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5jjk4CDnj9tA7ugxr/openai-ema...

"At some point we’d get someone to run the team, but he/she probably shouldn’t be on the governance board"

"generally, safety should be a first-class requirement"

"Probably better to have a standard C corp with a parallel nonprofit"

"Because we don't have any financial obligations, we can focus on the maximal positive human impact"

"The underlying philosophy of our company [OpenAI] is to disseminate AI technology as broadly as possible as an extension of all individual human wills, ensuring, in the spirit of liberty, that the power of digital intelligence is not overly concentrated and evolves toward the future desired by the sum of humanity"

"The outcome of this venture is uncertain and the pay is low compared to what others will offer, but we believe the goal and the structure are right"

"do you have any objection to me proactively increasing everyone's comp by 100-200k per year?"

"The output of any company is the vector sum of the people within it."

"it's totally OK to not share the science (even though sharing everything is definitely the right strategy in the short and possibly medium term for recruitment purposes)"

"Frankly, what surprises me is that the AI community is taking this long to figure out concepts. It doesn't sound super hard."

"Powerful ideas are produced by top people. Massive clusters help, and are very worth getting, but they play a less important role."

"Deepmind is causing me extreme mental stress."

"At any given time, we will take the action that is likely to most strongly benefit the world."

"Would be worth way more than $50M not to seem like Microsoft's marketing bitch."

"Ok. Let's figure out the least expensive way to ensure compute power is not a constraint..."

"Within the next three years, robotics should be completely solved . . . In as little as four years, each overnight experiment will feasibly use so much compute capacity that there’s an actual chance of waking up to AGI"

"We think the path must be: AI research non-profit (through end of 2017), AI research + hardware for-profit (starting 2018), Government project (when: ??)"

"Satisfying this means a situation where, regardless of what happens to the three of them, it's guaranteed that power over the company is distributed after the 2-3 year initial period"

"As mentioned, my experience with boards (assuming they consist of good, smart people) is that they are rational and reasonable. There is basically never a real hardcore battle. . ."

"The current structure provides you with a path where you end up with unilateral absolute control over the AGI. You stated that you don't want to control the final AGI, but during this negotiation, you've shown to us that absolute control is extremely important to you. As an example, you said that you needed to be CEO of the new company so that everyone will know that you are the one who is in charge. . ."

"Specifically, the concern is that Tesla has a duty to shareholders to maximize shareholder return, which is not aligned with OpenAI's mission"

"During this negotiation, we realized that we have allowed the idea of financial return 2-3 years down the line to drive our decisions . . . this attitude is wrong"

"i remain enthusiastic about the non-profit structure!"

". . .apparently in the last day almost everyone has been told that the for-profit structure is not happening and he [Sam] is happy about this"

"Our goal and mission are fundamentally correct"

"We also have identified a small but finite number of limitations in today's deep learning which are barriers to learning from human levels of experience. And we believe we uniquely are on trajectory to solving safety (at least in broad strokes) in the next three years."

"Our biggest tool is the moral high ground. To retain this, we must: Try our best to remain a non-profit. AI is going to shake up the fabric of society, and our fiduciary duty should be to humanity. Put increasing effort into the safety/control problem, rather than the fig leaf you've noted in other institutions. It doesn't matter who wins if everyone dies. Related to this, we need to communicate a "better red than dead" outlook — we're trying to build safe AGI, and we're not willing to destroy the world in a down-to-the-wire race to do so."

"The sharp rise in Dota bot performance is apparently causing people internally to worry that the timeline to AGI is sooner than they’d thought before."

"This needs billions per year immediately or forget it."

"all investors are clear that they should never expect a profit"

"We saw no alternative to a structure change given the amount of capital we needed and still to preserve a way to 'give the AGI to humanity' other than the capped profit thing, which also lets the board cancel all equity if needed for safety. Fwiw I personally have no equity and never have."

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your previous comment was clearly not constraining itself to the realm of AI chips / FSD. Regardless: How do you measure Dojo, xAI, and Grok being failures? Dojo is training models for FSD, which is in operation today. The chips in Tesla cars are also taped in-house / vertically integrated, a lot of which is presumably shared investment with the chips needed for the Dojo training side specifically. Separating xAI fro…

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-shuts-down-dojo-ai-2219... Dojo is shutdown dude. Literally doing nothing but rotting. After spending $Billions on a custom chip, Tesla is now just buying NVidia chips and wasting their Dojo efforts entirely Team dismantled. Operations closed. Game over. --------- A similar event is playing out with xAI. Operations are transferring over to SpaceX. Out of money, out of time. They'r…

Ok, but Dojo clearly has a spiritual successor in the form of: whatever Tesla is currently using to train FSD models? Like... Tesla kills teams all the time. Sounds like many were absorbed into the rest of the org. Seems like a bit of a nothing-burger without the follow-up that Tesla is shutting down FSD ambitions in general (or similar).

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10 years returns S&P 500 (index of all those better than Musk): 261% Tesla: 2700% Disclaimer: My portfolio is 65% Tesla.

I'd argue that Tesla's stock price is more about con artist acumen than business acumen. TSLA currently has a P/E of ~375. That's extremely overvalued. There's no possible objective reason for TSLA to have such an extreme ratio. Even if you think Robotaxi is going to be a massive success, it would have to completely devour Lyft, Uber, and traditional taxi services all combined to even get half way to justifying that…

I remember the days when a P/E in the high single digits was a giant red flag.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone seriously still believe this? I thought as a society we had realized Musk is simply BSing whatever he feels like until it becomes untenable.

> Does anyone seriously still believe this? I do. It’s not his singular focus. But he continues to personally invest himself in pushing the boundaries of human spacefaring capability. That goal seems more meaningful to him that it does to e.g. Bezos, who seems to have a rocket company to look cool.

It’s in his own biography (the older one) that spacex would pursue mars without distraction. That he went to great lengths to ensure it wouldn’t be used for military, tourism, etc.

You can’t believe musk without simultaneously believing he’s a liar. It’s in HIS fucking book.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sometimes wonder, what does one need a second 500 billion that the first 500 billion is not enough for?

Getting to Mars, it would seem.

I agree we'd all be better off if SpaceX figured out how to send Musk to Mars ASAP.
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