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Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

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Re: Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

#321
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which is why Elon is building a fab now At least he says he's doing that. It doesn't really make sense since you're not going to achieve an advanced node from a standing start in a practical time frame and cost. Sounds like more Musk flavored vapor.

> It doesn't really make sense since you're not going to achieve an advanced node from a standing start in a practical time frame and cost. They already announced a partnership with Intel.

He may just want to buy them, to accelerate things, once SpaceX IPOs

Re: Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

#322
I wanted to root for Mark and Meta as another frontier lab especially focused on open source but at this moment I have to say who cares. Gemini has a better OS track record thus far. Alex Wang is a reputational hazard. It is hard to get over the bias that this too might be benchmaxxed. I'd love to see demos of products actually using these models to overcome that but with the current pace of progress now my intuition says skip all this.

Re: Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments trashing this are rightly correct skeptics who remember the benchmaxxing of llama 4. This model was out in the woods as early as like a couple months ago but they didn't release it because it was at gemini 2.5 pro levels.

> 4. This model was out in the woods as early as like a couple months ago but they didn't release it because it was at gemini 2.5 pro levels. Source? (Even if rumor)

It was from a techmeme ride home podcast where the host discussed "sources at the company said". I don't remember which day's episode it was.

Re: Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

#324
Personal superintelligence sounds nice until you actually try to use it.

We spent time yesterday arguing through an architecture decision. Today I ask the Agent to help implement it - it knows nothing about any of that. You’re effectively starting over.

Feels like the real problem isn’t intelligence, it’s continuity. And most benchmarks don’t even touch that.

Re: Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

#325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why go into coding agents? Both anthropic and OpenAI are going all in on that. The opportunity is customer facing AI now. OpenAI has the mindshare but they going to have to decide if they allocate their limited compute for free users or go all in trying to keep up with Anthropic in enterprise.

If you squint at coding agents you see the next OS. Maybe better phrasing is “HCI paradigm”, but that somehow manages to say everything and nothing.

Programming was always about designing rube goldberg systems that did a complicated state machine akin to dominos but now we have a probabalistic and nondeterministic domino that has a huge amount of dominos inside amd can dynamically generate many different paths of dominos sometimes not even leading to the intended final domino you wanted to fall.

I see it more like a compiler

Re: Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

#326

Personal superintelligence sounds nice until you actually try to use it. We spent time yesterday arguing through an architecture decision. Today I ask the Agent to help implement it - it knows nothing about any of that. You’re effectively starting over. Feels like the real problem isn’t intelligence, it’s continuity. And most benchmarks don’t even touch that.

Yes this feels very new from a product and harness design perspective but it's brand new! Nine months old. The mobile and web sessions don't even real-time sync between each-other yet there's endless work to be done and time will tell if they can bring all the people to bring it together. The underlying model seems like a great foundation now but securing the supremacy of usage is multilateral requiring both machine learng advancements and product/harness/usage design.

Re: Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

#328
post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you look at Anthropic's revenue chart and claim it's just vibes

1. Revenue is not profit; you can make $10 billion by spending $20 billion. 2. It is not clear how they are getting their numbers.

Regardless they are getting that revenue through genuine demand for their product. It’s not like they are selling back some commodity product, billions are being spent on model outputs.

I think anyone who has used Opus 4.6 can see what is causing this demand. It is genuinely “smart” in the sense that it can work its way around non-trivial coding problems.

Re: Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

#329

This really reinforces the idea that the AI race and the Railroad Mania of the 19th century are very similar. So many different companies are going to have similarly powerful ai that there will be no moat around it and it will be cheap. They will never earn their investment back.

Nah. Everybody is talking about ai. Everybody is using it. It's by far the most popular new tool human beings are using currently. As popular as mobile phones or spoons. And maybe as disruptive as the steam engines. AI companies are becoming the largest software companies on the planet. Everything points into that direction. Trillions of dollars are waiting in the market to be collected.

> Everybody is talking about ai. Everybody is using it.

Please take a moment to step outside the tech bubble. Neither my neighbor (a hair stylist) nor the carpenter fixing up her kitching cabinets are "using" AI. They might get Gemini text when googling something, though they often scroll past it because they often don't trust it. And they get lots of fake videos when scrolling their youtube which increasingly annoys them. The only times they are in touch with AI is when it's forced upon them, and otherwise they are living a pretty good life without any of this.

Re: Muse Spark: Scaling towards personal superintelligence

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you squint at coding agents you see the next OS. Maybe better phrasing is “HCI paradigm”, but that somehow manages to say everything and nothing.

Programming was always about designing rube goldberg systems that did a complicated state machine akin to dominos but now we have a probabalistic and nondeterministic domino that has a huge amount of dominos inside amd can dynamically generate many different paths of dominos sometimes not even leading to the intended final domino you wanted to fall. I see it more like a compiler

I agree that it's more like a compiler (turns higher level language into machine code) but I also think that's only half the story - a compiler could never turn requirements into functional software, generate boilerplate or debug. It's also a development tool
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